447
FXUS65 KABQ 101953
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
153 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 134 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY,
FAVORING CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HIGH CHANCES EXIST FOR
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS EASTERN NM, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE TX BORDER.
- STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND PEAK ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY CREATE DIFFICULT
TRAVEL FOR LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, BUT FUELS MAY
NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD DUE TO RAINFALL FROM TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
THERE ARE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST AND
THE KEY IMPACTS REMAIN CONSISTENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING
TO EASTERN NM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE
CA COASTLINE. VIRGA SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH WETTER ACTIVITY TAKING SHAPE
OVER EASTERN NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THRU
THE EVENING WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS STILL A
SPC 'MARGINAL RISK' AREA OVER NORTHEAST NM WHERE THE GREATER LIFT,
MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY COINCIDE. AN APPROACHING 55-65KT UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL HELP WITH LARGER-SCALE ASCENT BY TONIGHT AND
CONVECTION WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER EASTERN NM INTO AREAS OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 12Z HREF SHOWS PMM
PRECIP VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.75" BETWEEN SANTA ROSA, TUCUMCARI, AND
CLAYTON. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS A 20-30%
CHANCE FOR CEILINGS BELOW 1,000 FT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL SKIRT
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS WELL BUT NBM QPF PROBABILITIES >0.20" ARE
ONLY 30-50%.
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NM SATURDAY AS A 70-80KT SPEED MAX
SLIDES NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. IMPROVING ASCENT WITH
25 TO 40KT BULK SHEAR, PWATS NEAR 1", SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS, AND GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL FORCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE 'SLIGHT RISK' AREA EAST
OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY WITH A 'MARGINAL RISK' WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NM. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50" ARE
LIKELY OVER EASTERN NM WITH LOCALLY GREATER THAN 0.75" POSSIBLE.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SWIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH.
FARTHER WEST, A FEW HIGH-BASED AND GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN NM SATURDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN ALL NIGHT. LOW TEMPS
WILL TREND COOLER AND ACTUALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS VERY DRY WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. 700-500MB LAYER WINDS ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO NEAR
997MB OVER EASTERN CO. NBM PROBS FOR WIND GUSTS >50 MPH ARE 20-40%
IN THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN SO WIND ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIFFERENTLY EACH
DAY. THE LATEST RENDITION SHOWS A TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BY MONDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM. TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS COOLER WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. IT IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE WINDY BOTH DAYS BUT 700-500MB WINDS ARE STILL NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NM
LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH THRU 9PM. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STRENGTHEN AS MOISTURE IMPROVES OVER THE AREA, BUT
STRONG AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE MAIN IMPACT AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE EASTERN NM WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG STORMS. PERIODS OF RAIN
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LEAD TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR THRU SATURDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN NM. WESTERN NM IS
LIKELY TO SEE PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
VIRGA DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM TODAY WILL GROW INTO
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DRY STORMS THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. ANY DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST, CHANCES
ARE HIGHER FOR WETTING RAINFALL THRU SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM STRONGER STORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25
TO 0.50" ARE STILL LIKELY OVER EASTERN NM WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OVER 1". WESTERN NM WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER
HUMIDITY BY SATURDAY BUT A COUPLE VIRGA SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH DRIER AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER VARIABLES COINCIDE ACROSS
EASTERN NM FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY BUT THE WETTING RAINFALL MAY
HELP MITIGATE FIRE SPREAD WITHIN "WETTER" 1-HR AND 10-HR FUELS.
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OCCURS FOR A FEW HOURS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION DO NOT WARRANT A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THERE ARE STILL CONCERNS WITH THE TRACK OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR
SLIDES INTO THE REGION. DESPITE THE STRONGER WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM, THE MOST RECENT FORECAST CONTINUES TRENDING AWAY FROM
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW
POSSIBLE. EASTERN NM DOES HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 48 72 40 70 / 20 40 10 0
DULCE........................... 36 67 29 66 / 50 70 20 5
CUBA............................ 43 67 35 67 / 60 60 50 10
GALLUP.......................... 35 69 32 67 / 10 20 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 38 66 34 65 / 20 30 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 38 71 33 70 / 30 40 10 5
QUEMADO......................... 40 68 35 67 / 5 30 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 47 70 41 71 / 30 30 20 0
DATIL........................... 42 67 36 65 / 20 30 10 0
RESERVE......................... 40 73 34 69 / 5 10 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 45 77 38 75 / 5 10 0 0
CHAMA........................... 36 59 29 59 / 60 80 40 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 66 41 65 / 60 80 50 10
PECOS........................... 43 65 37 66 / 70 70 60 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 39 62 35 62 / 60 70 40 5
RED RIVER....................... 33 56 29 58 / 70 70 40 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 33 59 28 59 / 70 70 50 5
TAOS............................ 40 67 31 66 / 70 70 50 5
MORA............................ 39 63 35 65 / 80 70 60 5
ESPANOLA........................ 47 73 39 73 / 70 70 50 5
SANTA FE........................ 46 67 41 68 / 80 70 60 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 70 40 70 / 80 70 50 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 73 45 74 / 70 60 40 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 75 46 76 / 60 50 40 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 78 45 79 / 60 50 40 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 76 46 77 / 60 50 40 0
BELEN........................... 50 78 43 79 / 50 40 30 5
BERNALILLO...................... 51 76 46 77 / 60 50 40 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 50 78 42 79 / 60 50 40 5
CORRALES........................ 52 77 46 78 / 60 50 40 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 78 43 78 / 50 40 40 5
PLACITAS........................ 50 71 45 72 / 70 60 50 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 76 46 77 / 60 50 40 5
SOCORRO......................... 53 79 46 81 / 40 30 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 67 41 67 / 70 60 50 5
TIJERAS......................... 48 70 43 70 / 70 60 50 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 45 71 40 71 / 70 60 50 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 44 72 38 73 / 80 60 50 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 67 40 68 / 70 70 50 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 46 70 40 71 / 60 40 40 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 69 42 70 / 60 50 40 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 51 71 49 72 / 60 60 30 5
RUIDOSO......................... 46 64 45 65 / 70 60 30 5
CAPULIN......................... 44 63 38 67 / 70 60 30 5
RATON........................... 43 68 35 70 / 60 50 30 5
SPRINGER........................ 45 69 38 73 / 70 60 40 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 65 39 69 / 80 70 40 5
CLAYTON......................... 47 69 48 76 / 90 70 40 5
ROY............................. 47 65 43 72 / 80 80 50 5
CONCHAS......................... 52 73 49 80 / 90 80 60 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 51 71 47 76 / 80 80 50 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 53 74 51 83 / 80 80 60 5
CLOVIS.......................... 54 73 52 82 / 70 80 60 10
PORTALES........................ 55 73 51 83 / 70 80 60 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 52 73 49 81 / 80 80 50 10
ROSWELL......................... 57 75 54 84 / 80 70 30 5
PICACHO......................... 51 72 49 76 / 70 70 30 5
ELK............................. 48 70 46 75 / 70 70 20 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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