454
FXUS65 KABQ 120501 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL FAVOR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
MAIN HAZARD.
- GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND PEAK ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN COME BACK AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR
LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, BUT FUELS MAY
NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AROUND THE REGION, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN NM. THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, BUT WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER HAS PREVENTED SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION AND THEREFORE STORM INTENSIFICATION HERE. THERE IS
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE LATER TODAY, BUT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO STAY OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL FAVOR STRONGER SFC HEATING. THAT BEING SAID,
AROUND 30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED STORMS,
WHICH SHOULD CLUSTER TOGETHER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON IN SIMILAR AREAS TO YESTERDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL
BE BENEFICIAL AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK REMAINS VERY LOW GIVEN THE
DRY SOILS. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS ACTUALLY HIGHER IN
NORTHERN NM TODAY WHERE INCREASED SHEAR FROM THE JET MAX ALOFT IS
ALREADY SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED STORMS. SINCE THE BACKGROUND
WINDS ARE STRONGER, THE STORMS COULD MIX DOWN SOME OF THESE STRONGER
GUSTS TO THE SFC INTERMITTENTLY. LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST FROM STORMS
AND EVEN VIRGA SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WHERE SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LOW. STORMS IN
NORTHERN NM WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM
THE WEST, BUT A FEW UNORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE IN EAST-CENTRAL NM THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT THANKS TO THE
FORCING PROVIDED FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH DRIER THAN TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGE. A BRISK BREEZE SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH LOCALIZED WINDY CONDITIONS IN WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NM. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING, THEN A
BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE 24-HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGES COULD BE AS
MUCH AS 15 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
NEW MEXICO WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, ALTHOUGH WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. GFS MOS GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS, BUT DID NOT ADJUST THE
FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE NBM GIVEN THAT 700 MB WINDS ARE ONLY
AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT MIXING
HEIGHTS. THE TROUGH WILL PICK UP SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN QUITE
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IT WILL PRODUCE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NM. JET FORCING
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT MORE IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SO SNOW LEVELS
COULD DROP AS LOW AS 6,500 FEET IN WESTERN NM LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT CROSSES THE STATE FROM WEST
TO EAST, WITH TEMPERATURE CHANGES ONLY AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO IN
EASTERN NM. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY, WITH
VEERING TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING OF ANOTHER GREAT BASIN TROUGH.
THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW
SINCE IT HAS ITS ORIGINS WITH THE POLAR JET AS OPPOSED TO THE SUB-
TROPICAL JET. HOWEVER, THE TROUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRING THAT COLDER AIR INTO NEW MEXICO. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THAT THIS TROUGH BRINGS MORE LIGHT RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY/SATURDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL IF A BACKDOOR FRONT IS PUSHED THROUGH
EASTERN NM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, WITH CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. PATCHES OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NM, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN KROW TAF. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF VFR CIGS BY LATE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
WIDESPREAD STORMS TODAY WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
WHERE MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION (0.05-0.25").
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WHERE A FEW DRY STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR FIRE IGNITIONS.
WESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER TONIGHT, PUSHING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE
WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE TOMORROW,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AND IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TODAY MAY BE ENOUGH
TO RELIEVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, BUT THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE
WETTING RAINFALL IS GIVEN THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS ONGOING
HERE. WINDS ON MONDAY TREND SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. JET LEVEL WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE, BUT 700MB WINDS AROUND 30 KTS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING VERY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH CRITICAL IN THE EAST. ERCS SHOULD DROP SUFFICIENTLY TO WARD OFF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SOUTH OF I-40, BUT AREAS NORTH OF I-40 MAY NOT
BE AS LUCKY GIVEN THE LONG-TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT. LIGHT RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL FAVOR THE NORTHWESTERN HIGH TERRAIN ON TUESDAY,
BUT AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 0.1".
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN WINDS, BUT
GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
PARTICULARLY DRY, WITH INCREASING CHANGES FOR WIDESPREAD SINGLE-
DIGIT RH. LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR FAR NORTHERN NM
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 72 42 68 / 10 0 5 10
DULCE........................... 32 67 34 63 / 10 5 5 20
CUBA............................ 35 68 38 63 / 30 0 5 20
GALLUP.......................... 32 69 32 64 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 36 66 35 61 / 5 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 34 70 34 66 / 10 0 0 20
QUEMADO......................... 36 67 38 63 / 0 0 0 10
MAGDALENA....................... 43 71 47 67 / 20 0 0 10
DATIL........................... 39 65 40 61 / 10 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 34 70 34 68 / 0 0 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 37 76 37 73 / 10 0 0 10
CHAMA........................... 31 60 32 56 / 10 5 5 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 66 45 62 / 40 5 5 20
PECOS........................... 37 67 38 64 / 50 0 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 36 63 36 60 / 20 0 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 33 53 32 51 / 30 0 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 25 59 25 57 / 30 0 5 5
TAOS............................ 33 67 33 64 / 30 0 5 5
MORA............................ 36 66 37 64 / 50 0 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 41 73 42 70 / 40 0 5 10
SANTA FE........................ 41 67 42 64 / 50 0 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 40 71 41 67 / 50 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 75 52 72 / 40 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 48 77 51 73 / 30 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 80 48 76 / 30 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 46 77 50 74 / 30 0 5 10
BELEN........................... 43 79 47 75 / 30 0 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 45 78 49 74 / 30 0 5 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 42 79 45 75 / 30 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 45 79 49 74 / 30 0 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 79 45 75 / 30 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 48 73 50 69 / 40 0 5 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 48 78 51 74 / 30 0 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 48 82 52 78 / 20 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 69 46 66 / 50 0 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 45 71 46 67 / 50 0 5 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 43 71 44 68 / 40 0 5 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 35 73 34 70 / 30 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 41 68 39 66 / 40 0 0 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 43 71 44 69 / 30 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 42 70 43 69 / 20 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 72 49 72 / 20 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 45 65 44 65 / 20 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 38 69 37 68 / 30 0 0 0
RATON........................... 35 72 35 71 / 30 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 37 75 37 73 / 40 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 39 69 39 67 / 50 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 49 78 47 77 / 50 0 0 0
ROY............................. 43 73 42 72 / 50 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 47 82 47 81 / 40 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 47 78 49 77 / 30 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 51 83 49 83 / 40 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 51 81 48 81 / 50 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 50 82 48 83 / 50 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 49 82 48 81 / 40 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 85 52 84 / 40 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 49 76 50 76 / 30 0 0 0
ELK............................. 45 73 45 73 / 30 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page