648
FXUS65 KABQ 151120 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 501 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR LARGE AND
HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN NM.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY TO NORTHEASTERN
AND EAST-CENTRAL NM AND A MAJORITY OF THE STATE FRIDAY,
INCREASING THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD FROM ANY NEW SPARK.
- A HARD FREEZE IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT EARLY BLOOMING PLANTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
CALMER CONDITIONS ARE MOVING INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TONIGHT AS
YESTERDAY'S UPPER LOW OPENS AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS REGION TONIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO SEE
LOCALIZED BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR THIS MIDNIGHT HOUR, BUT OVERALL
LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE HOLD TONIGHT. THE CALMER AND
CLEARER CONDITIONS IN TANDEM WITH LOWERING HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO EFFICIENTLY DROP TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN THIRDS OF THE STATE WHERE
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. THIS INCLUDES NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER NEAR
FARMINGTON. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE VERY PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER ACROSS
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S TO 80S AND
MODEST AFTERNOON BREEZES.
THURSDAY SEES THE NEXT ROUND OF DRY AND WINDY WEATHER MOVE IN AS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE A WAYS AWAY OVER
NORTHERN NV COME THURSDAY, BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONGSIDE THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
HELP RAISE TEMPERATURES 5F TO 10F INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS, WITH 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND SPEEDS TAPER OFF
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH STRONGER SPEEDS ON
TAP FOR FRIDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNFORTUNATELY SHOW THE TRACK
OF A LATE WEEK SYSTEM STAY TO THE NORTH OF NM AND OVER THE CO
ROCKIES. THIS WILL YIELD A DRY AND WINDY AND FIRE GROWTH PATTERN
ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. THIS SYSTEM, ANCHORED BY A ~100KT H3
JETMAX ON ITS SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY WILL QUICKLY PRODUCE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY. THESE STRONGER
WINDS GUSTING 45 TO 55 MPH WILL FIRST FOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BEFORE SPREADING TO SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE PACIFIC PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A SHARP NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
FIRST NEAR MIDDAY BEFORE ADVANCING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND HIGHLANDS IN THE EARLY
EVENING. AS SUCH, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FIRST
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR RUIDOSO, BECOMING FOCUSED
ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FRIDAY
EVENING, VEERING WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE
WHERE THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WILL BE FAVORED TO
OCCUR, NOTABLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS. THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL TAPER OFF NEARLY ALL AREAS LATE
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS WHERE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING DOWN LOCALLY
STRONGER H7 WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS GOING A BIT CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PACIFIC AND
BACKDOOR PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT MEET ACROSS EASTERN NM,
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD TOGETHER THRU THE NIGHT WITH WINDS LESSENING
AREA WIDE THRU SATURDAY MORNING.
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES AIDED BY LESSENING WINDS AND VERY LOW
TD'S IN THE SINGLE-DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME VERY COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE WILL THREATEN A
HARD FREEZE, CAPABLE OF KILLING EARLY SEASON BLOOMS THAT AWOKE TOO
EARLY FROM MARCH'S RECORD HEAT WAVE. A SOFT FREEZE WILL ALSO FAVOR
AREAS IN THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN ALBUQUERQUE AND MUCH OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS FROM TUCUMCARI TO CLOVIS, AS WELL AS THE SAN
FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY FROM LUNA TO GLENWOOD. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK
INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY
BRINGING A WARM UP AND INCREASED MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY TO THE AREA
TO END THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY YIELD A MODEST INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS
FAVORED FOR THE MOST PART.
TUESDAY SEES FORECAST CONFIDENCE PLUMMET AS A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW
SWIRLS OVER OR JUST OFFSHORE CA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING A NOTABLY
HARD TIME RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM GIVEN ITS
COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC STRUCTURE. NEVERTHELESS, INCREASED WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOKED FAVORED TO ENTER THE REGION
SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR PREVAILS TODAY AS LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS THIS MORNING YIELD TO
BREEZY WESTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY GUSTING 15 TO 25KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1239 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT OVER EASTERN NM
TODAY WITH MODEST BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE GROWING
PATTERN RETURNS THURSDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTH OF NM FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WHERE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE PRESENT. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 10 PERCENT WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE. MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EXPAND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDTIONS TO A
MAJORITY OF THE STATE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WILL BE FAVORED.
A SHARP WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL FOLLOW A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL USHER IN A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS, ALLOWING FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS LESSEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, ENDING THE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND AND WARM UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ALONGSIDE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND BETTER OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES INTO
THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS LOOKS FAVORED AT SOME
POINT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 35 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 60 22 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 60 31 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 63 25 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 60 31 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 64 28 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 61 30 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 65 39 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 60 34 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 69 28 71 30 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 73 34 75 35 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 54 25 61 31 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 39 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 62 35 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 58 33 63 38 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 49 28 54 32 / 5 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 55 21 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 62 26 68 31 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 61 32 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 68 33 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 62 39 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 65 35 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 44 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 41 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 73 39 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 42 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 73 34 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 71 40 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 72 34 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 71 40 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 72 36 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 65 42 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 71 41 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 75 40 80 43 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 39 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 64 39 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 65 34 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 66 27 73 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 35 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 65 35 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 65 36 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 42 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 61 40 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 61 31 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 65 29 74 34 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 68 29 77 35 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 64 34 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 69 41 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 68 36 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 76 39 84 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 71 38 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 77 42 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 77 44 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 78 42 83 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 76 39 83 46 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 80 43 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 73 42 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 71 38 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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