223
FXUS65 KABQ 152041
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
241 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 237 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR LARGE AND
HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN NM.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NM, INCREASING THE THREAT OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD FROM ANY NEW SPARK.
- A HARD FREEZE IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT EARLY BLOOMING PLANTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
A TRANQUIL AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS WEAK
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ENTRENCHES THE STATE. A FEW NORTHWEST BREEZES
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET. TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE CLEAR AND COOL (LOWS IN THE HIGH 30S TO
MID 20S) , THOUGH SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
GIVEN HIGHER PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVENTING
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THURSDAY TURNS MORE ACTIVE WITH TWO APPROACHING TROUGH AXES FROM THE
WEST. THE MORE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS, LOCATED OVER UT, LOOKS TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN CO, EXTENDING DOWN INTO NORTHEAST
NM. ALONGSIDE THIS, A MINOR BUT NOTED PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AT
500MB AND 700MB. THESE FACTORS COMBINED LOOK TO BRING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE, MOST NOTABLY IN EASTERN NM. WELL-
MIXED ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS SHOULD BRING ABOUT NO ISSUE IN TRANSFERRING
THE ELEVATED 700MB FLOW (~30KTS) TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL, WINDS LOOK
TO BE SOUTHWEST 15-25MPH, EXCEPT 20-30MPH IN NORTHEAST NM WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALSO LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE STATE, AND THAT COMBINATION OF WIND AND DRY
CONDITIONS LEADS TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
CONTINUE TO BE MINDFUL ABOUT PREVENTING SPARKS WHEN OUTDOORS.
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND GETTING AS HIGH AS THE MID 80S ACROSS
EASTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF REST AND REPRIEVE FROM THE WINDS GOING INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A 250MB SPEED MAX, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE
SOUTHERN TROUGH AXIS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM, STARTS TO
ENCROACH FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IN TURN, 500MB AND
700MB WINDS ALSO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER TIME THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THUS, THE PEAKS OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS LOOK TO GET INCREASED WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES GIVEN A STABLE TEMPERATURE LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE IN SOUNDINGS NEAR RUIDOSO. WHILE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR CRASHING MOUNTAIN WAVES, HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS ARE
FAVORED ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS NEAR
DUNKEN AND HONDO. GUSTS BETWEEN 50- 55MPH APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE AT
THE MOMENT. FURTHER NORTH, THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH CO. THE PLACEMENT OF EACH DOWNSTREAM
SPEED MAX FROM EACH AXIS PLACES NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST CO IN
AN AREA BOTH IN A LEFT EXIT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
LEVEL JETS. AS SUCH, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS
AREA AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM.
ALONGSIDE THIS, A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH
WESTERN NM AS THE TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSES THE CO/NM BORDER. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE LOW, PACIFIC FRONT, AND STRONGER 700MB
WINDS (~35-40KTS) SHOULD YIELD A WINDIER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. GUSTS UP TO 50MPH LOOK LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NM,
SPECIFICALLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND ON THE IMMEDIATE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN
THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR FRIDAY ON ACCOUNT OF A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN MODEL GUIDANCE SPEEDS AND WHERE EXACTLY THE SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS. SHOULD THE LOW DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH OR EAST,
FORECAST WINDS IN EASTERN NM WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE. A
FURTHER SOUTH/WEST AND/OR STRONGER LOW MAY LEAD TO HIGHER WIND
SPEED FORECASTS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC FRONT AND A BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE
SURFACE LOW LOOK TO PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF NM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING, WITH
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HARD FREEZE (<28F). WHILE WE ARE
STARTING TO NEAR THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE FOR SOME AREAS, THE RECORD
WARM MARCH ALONG WITH VERY RECENT RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED FOR ABUNDANT
BLOOMING OF PLANTS AND FOLKS STARTING IRRIGATION PROCESSES. A FREEZE
WATCH WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. START PREPARING TO PROTECT YOUR PLANTS, PIPES, PETS AND PEOPLE!
WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING IN CALMER CONDITIONS MAINLY ON SATURDAY. THE ORIENTATION OF
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO INDUCE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY, PRODUCING A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A WEAK INFLUX OF MOISTURE. A FEW GUSTY VIRGA
SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH WITH ONLY
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
DECREASE MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT LOW SPINS OFF THE COAST
OF CA. WHEN AND WHERE IT MOVES ASHORE WILL SPELL WHAT IMPACTS IT
WILL BRING TO NM, THOUGH A WINDY PATTERN WITH BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION
APPEAR POSSIBLE (LOW CONFIDENCE).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH A DRAINAGE
WIND LIKELY AT KSAF. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
INTERRUPT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THURSDAY...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NM, WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING AND A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED RESPECTIVELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY, MAINLY
AROUND 20-30MPH AND GUSTING TO 40MPH. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE RFW
LIKELY WILL REMAIN 15-25MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. SINGLE-DIGIT
HUMIDITY HOURS IS ONE OF THE MAIN STORIES FOR THURSDAY, WITH
UPWARDS OF 9 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE RFW AREA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER AND HAVE A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50MPH, AND THE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER (8-12% RATHER THAN 5-9%) WITH A FEW HOURS LESS OF
SINGLE-DIGIT HUMIDITY. EVEN WITH THAT, STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FWW AREA. CONFIDENCE
HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WITH THE
NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SHIFT
THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NM. FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, ERCS REMAIN AROUND THE 50-75TH PERCENTILE AFTER LAST
WEEKEND'S RAINFALL, WHICH IS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR NOT INCLUDING
ANYWHERE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IN FIRE HIGHLIGHTS.
WINDS AND RH WILL STILL BE NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLD, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUDING THOSE LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH CALMER, ALBEIT A MUCH COLDER MORNING
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. A FEW GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NM SUNDAY, THOUGH WITH LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH
SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS AT
THE MOMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 35 72 41 56 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 22 67 32 57 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 31 69 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 25 67 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 32 66 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 28 71 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 30 68 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 39 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 34 67 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 28 71 31 70 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 34 76 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 25 60 31 51 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 38 67 44 61 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 35 68 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 32 64 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 27 54 32 49 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 21 61 26 56 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 25 68 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 32 67 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 33 74 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 38 68 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 35 71 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 45 75 49 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 77 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 38 80 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 41 78 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 34 80 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 40 78 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 33 80 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 40 79 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 35 79 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 42 73 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 41 78 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 40 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 39 70 44 65 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 39 71 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 34 72 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 73 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 35 69 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 35 72 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 36 70 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 42 73 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 40 67 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 31 70 37 64 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 29 73 34 67 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 30 75 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 35 70 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 41 78 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 36 75 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 39 82 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 38 78 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 43 85 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 45 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 43 84 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 83 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 43 86 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 41 80 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 37 77 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ104-123-
125-126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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