281
FXUS65 KABQ 070559 AAC
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1159 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1143 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
- A LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE THURSDAY MORNING WILL POSE A RISK TO
NEWLY BUDDING PLANTS AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION OVER NORTHERN
VALLEY AREAS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES FROM NEAR ANGEL FIRE TO
RATON, LAS VEGAS, AND MORIARTY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A MINOR RISK FOR
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IN SENSITIVE POPULATIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
ESTANCIA BASIN AND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA AND BOTH LOCATIONS ARE WITHIN A WEEK OR TWO
OF THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP AS LOW AS
24 DEGREES NEAR MORIARTY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN NM PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED SHOWER AND
ISOLATED STORMS IS EXPANDING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NM
AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST
NM THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RESULTING IN
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND BRISK CONDITIONS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A LATE SEASON
FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NM AND AREAS THAT HAVEN'T
REACHED THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE (OR ARE CLOSE) HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED IN A FREEZE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION LATER
TODAY, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT
THIS TIME. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
A WEAK BAJA LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH
PRESSURE HEIGHTS ON THE UPTREND AND THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME MIXING OF MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON SATURDAY WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY CREATE AN EASTERLY
GAP/CANYON WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A
LIMITED ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS. PRESSURE HEIGHTS
WILL TREND UP MORE MON/TUE AS A 590DAM 500MB HIGH DEVELOPS OVER
AZ AND SHIFTS EAST OVER NM, BRINGING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. ALBUQUERQUE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 90S NEXT MON/TUE, WHILE ROSWELL SOARS TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, OPENING UP THE SOUTHERN DOOR FOR MOISTURE AND A POTENTIAL
ROUND OF CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40KT OVER EASTERN NM LATE THIS EVENING WILL
TAPER OFF THRU 3AM. THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE FOR PATCHY IFR VSBYS
IN FREEZING FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NM AND THE
ESTANCIA VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT AND STRONG GUSTS. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DRYING AND WARMING IS FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE
BY FRIDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WIND CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT
ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF THE RAPID SPREAD OF
FIRE. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW WETTING SHOWERS OR
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. CONTINUED WARMING IS FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 31 73 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 23 69 27 76 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 28 68 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 25 71 32 79 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 29 68 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 26 72 34 78 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 33 70 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 40 70 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 35 69 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 33 76 34 82 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 38 80 39 86 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 23 62 29 68 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 35 67 43 73 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 28 70 36 76 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 25 65 37 70 / 10 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 21 54 31 60 / 20 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 14 62 21 67 / 30 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 21 68 29 74 / 10 0 0 0
MORA............................ 26 68 37 73 / 20 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 32 74 38 80 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 33 68 42 75 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 71 38 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 41 73 48 81 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 74 44 83 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 38 76 42 85 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 40 76 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 37 76 39 85 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 38 75 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 36 75 38 84 / 5 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 38 76 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 37 75 40 83 / 5 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 38 71 46 79 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 39 75 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 45 78 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 68 43 76 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 36 69 43 78 / 5 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 32 70 37 77 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 25 72 28 80 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 29 68 38 75 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 33 70 39 78 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 33 69 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 43 73 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 36 68 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 22 63 34 69 / 20 0 0 0
RATON........................... 21 68 32 75 / 20 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 22 70 33 77 / 40 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 25 70 37 75 / 30 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 31 72 43 77 / 80 0 0 0
ROY............................. 27 68 38 76 / 60 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 33 77 43 83 / 60 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 33 75 41 80 / 30 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 33 78 47 85 / 50 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 36 76 47 85 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 37 79 46 86 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 35 76 44 85 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 44 76 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 40 73 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 37 72 41 79 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ201-217-218.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ222-223-228>231.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42
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