372
FXUS65 KABQ 251917
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
117 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS
TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE (60-70%) RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WITHIN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTH FORK, SALT AND SEVEN CABINS BURN SCARS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE (40-60%)
RISK ON TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE (20-40%) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
A PACIFIC LOW IS MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL AZ AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS RAMPING UP AHEAD OF IT ACROSS NM. THE SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM IS ACTIVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO
NORTHERN NM, PUTTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NM IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION AND BRINGING ENHANCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC LOW. IN ADDITION, THERE IS NOTABLE DEVELOPING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT, WHICH WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. PWATS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO SURGE TO NEAR DAILY RECORD VALUES TODAY AND THE
00Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL TELL THE TAPE. THE RESULT WILL
BE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EVENT, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
FAVORING CENTRAL NM. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRODUCING SHORT- LIVED DOWNPOURS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE BURN
SCARS NEAR RUIDOSO AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW, BUT NON-ZERO, ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NM, WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TRENDING DOWN GRADUALLY. ELEVATED
PWATS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND AFTER SOME DAYTIME
HEATING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO TAKE OFF. THE
LATEST NAM IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON STORMS TAKING OFF OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING EAST INTO
THE RGV LATE DAY IMPACTING THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM SOCORRO NORTH
THROUGH ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE TO TAOS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRINGING A RENEWED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY, MAINLY FOR BURN SCAR CONSIDERATIONS. STORMS WILL MOVE OUT
INTO EASTERN NM THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
A LARGE AND POTENT UPPER LOW OVER NV/CA WILL STEER STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN NM ON
WED/THU, BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
EASTERN NM AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND EJECT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY, STEERING DRY WESTERLIES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AND BRINGING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN NM AND A
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE GRADUALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS ALONG
THE AZ/NM BORDER, BRINGING DAILY ROUNDS OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED CONVECTION. NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING ACTIVE, WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OUTSIDE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AND SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
DETERIORATION IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE KABQ/KAEG/KSAF AIRSPACE BETWEEN 20-00Z, WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC
WIND LIKELY IN ADDITION TO SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT KROW, WHERE MVFR
CONDTIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT LOW PROBABILITIES FOR IFR
EXIST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING EVENT IS UNDERWAY,
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS AS A PACIFIC LOW SWINGS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY, FAVORING CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DRY-OUT WESTERN NM
WED/THU, WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WED/THU AFTERNOONS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE
AZ BORDER, BUT HIGHER HUMIDLY AND WETTING RAINFALL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL LOWER ERCS AND MAKE THE RAPID FIRE SPREAD A LOWER
THREAT. GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM THU/FRI,
LEADING GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY AND CHANCES FOR
WETTING STORMS. MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 77 47 84 / 40 30 5 0
DULCE........................... 42 72 38 79 / 70 50 10 0
CUBA............................ 42 71 42 76 / 60 40 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 40 74 39 80 / 50 20 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 42 71 41 78 / 80 20 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 41 75 40 81 / 70 20 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 43 73 41 78 / 70 10 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 48 72 48 78 / 70 50 20 0
DATIL........................... 44 70 44 77 / 70 20 10 0
RESERVE......................... 40 79 39 80 / 30 10 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 43 84 44 85 / 20 10 5 0
CHAMA........................... 40 66 37 73 / 70 60 20 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 68 49 75 / 60 60 30 5
PECOS........................... 44 67 42 75 / 70 50 30 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 66 43 73 / 50 70 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 40 57 36 63 / 70 70 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 62 33 68 / 70 70 30 40
TAOS............................ 46 69 41 76 / 60 50 30 10
MORA............................ 46 63 41 71 / 80 70 40 30
ESPANOLA........................ 50 75 48 82 / 60 40 20 0
SANTA FE........................ 49 69 47 76 / 70 50 30 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 48 72 46 79 / 60 40 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 77 53 82 / 60 30 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 78 52 83 / 60 30 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 81 51 85 / 60 30 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 79 52 84 / 60 40 20 0
BELEN........................... 48 80 49 85 / 60 40 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 52 79 51 84 / 60 30 20 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 47 80 48 85 / 60 40 20 0
CORRALES........................ 51 80 51 84 / 60 40 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 47 80 48 85 / 60 40 20 0
PLACITAS........................ 53 74 52 81 / 60 40 20 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 79 52 84 / 60 40 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 54 82 54 86 / 60 60 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 71 47 77 / 70 40 30 0
TIJERAS......................... 49 72 48 79 / 70 40 30 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 48 71 44 79 / 70 50 30 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 72 40 80 / 70 50 30 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 66 44 75 / 70 50 40 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 46 72 44 78 / 70 40 30 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 70 45 78 / 70 40 30 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 52 73 51 80 / 70 50 20 0
RUIDOSO......................... 48 66 47 73 / 80 70 20 5
CAPULIN......................... 44 64 42 69 / 60 70 40 60
RATON........................... 46 68 44 74 / 60 70 20 40
SPRINGER........................ 48 68 44 76 / 70 60 40 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 64 44 73 / 80 60 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 51 71 49 73 / 30 50 30 30
ROY............................. 49 66 47 74 / 70 70 40 10
CONCHAS......................... 53 73 51 82 / 80 70 40 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 69 49 80 / 80 70 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 74 51 82 / 70 80 30 10
CLOVIS.......................... 54 72 51 81 / 90 80 30 5
PORTALES........................ 54 72 51 82 / 90 80 40 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 73 51 82 / 90 70 30 5
ROSWELL......................... 58 75 55 86 / 80 50 20 5
PICACHO......................... 52 72 48 82 / 80 70 20 10
ELK............................. 48 72 46 80 / 80 60 20 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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