796
FXUS65 KABQ 270900
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1258 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
- AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR FOG WILL LOWER VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NM, WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PATCHY FOG FROM AROUND TAOS TO CHAMA AND DULCE AS WELL.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SOME STORMS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY
TURN SEVERE ON FRIDAY BY PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
A MESOSCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN NM BORDER WEDNESDAY, THEN EXIT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST NM WILL ENABLE LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN TO CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS, AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS; EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-40.
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SETTLES OVER
CENTRAL CA TODAY WILL REMAIN STALLED THERE THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, FINALLY
REACHING UT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO, SANDIA, AND MANZANO
MOUNTAINS. A PATCHIER EPISODE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOKS TO
RETURN TO EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT, WHEN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL PROBABLY DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS NORTHEASTWARD
FROM CA. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND BRISK SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NM, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM, ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BOTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PROFILES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY, WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN STORM SEVERITY ACROSS THE EAST.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY,
THEN AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM 4
DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU TO AS
MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY COOL A FEW DEGREES IN MANY PLACES
FRIDAY AS THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 1258 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW OVER UT WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WY AND EASTERN MT, WHILE STEERING DRY
AIR OVER NM. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TREND A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER NM AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. SUNDAY, A MOIST
RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE LOW
LEVELS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND ON
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL PROBABLY
BECOME ADEQUATE BY MONDAY FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
MOIST BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY THEN ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
ON TUESDAY AS THE RICH RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHES OVER
WESTERN NM WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FOUR CORNERS, AND A 60%
CHANCE ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BEFORE FALLING
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
AREAS. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR THERE IN PRECIPITATION, LOW
CLOUDS, AND AREAS OF FOG. PATCHY FOG WILL EXTEND WEST AND
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND THERE WILL BE
SMALLER PROBABILITIES OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, AROUND CHAMA AND DULCE, AND ALSO IN THE VALLES
CALDERA OF THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS. AS FOG DISSIPATES AROUND MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY, THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER EASTERN NM WILL SHRINK
CLOSER TO THE CO AND OK BORDERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN REDEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE SANDIA, MANZANO, AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE,
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
REACHING AROUND 30 KNOTS NEAR SOCORRO, GALLUP, AND ZUNI.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
ERCS REMAIN ABOVE THE 50TH PERCENTILE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, AND AROUND THE 70TH PERCENTILE ALONG NM'S PARCHED WESTERN
BORDER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL PLUMMET NEAR AND BELOW 15 PERCENT EVERY DAY FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS, AND OVER EASTERN AREAS AS WELL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN BREEZY
IN SPOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND GRAN QUIVIRA AND
GALLUP. OTHERWISE, WINDS DON'T LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN,
EXCEPT FOR ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WITH TIMING DESCRIBED IN
PREVIOUS SECTIONS OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION. IN ADDITION, SOME
GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM
ALBUQUERQUE NORTHWARD TO THE CO BORDER BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 85 50 88 52 / 0 0 10 5
DULCE........................... 80 39 83 43 / 0 0 5 10
CUBA............................ 76 45 79 48 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 79 39 82 41 / 0 0 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 77 44 79 45 / 0 0 10 5
GRANTS.......................... 80 41 82 45 / 0 0 10 5
QUEMADO......................... 77 44 80 46 / 0 0 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 77 51 79 54 / 0 0 0 5
DATIL........................... 75 46 77 49 / 0 0 5 5
RESERVE......................... 81 42 83 42 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 85 47 87 46 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 73 38 76 41 / 0 0 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 74 52 78 55 / 0 0 10 20
PECOS........................... 75 44 78 47 / 10 5 40 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 72 45 76 49 / 10 5 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 64 37 69 38 / 20 10 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 67 34 72 31 / 30 20 30 30
TAOS............................ 75 41 80 46 / 5 0 5 20
MORA............................ 70 43 75 47 / 50 10 50 30
ESPANOLA........................ 82 49 86 51 / 0 0 5 20
SANTA FE........................ 76 51 80 53 / 5 0 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 80 49 84 51 / 0 0 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 82 57 86 59 / 0 0 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 83 56 87 58 / 0 0 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 86 50 89 52 / 0 0 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 84 54 87 57 / 0 0 10 10
BELEN........................... 85 49 89 54 / 0 0 10 5
BERNALILLO...................... 84 54 88 56 / 0 0 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 85 48 88 51 / 0 0 10 10
CORRALES........................ 85 54 89 56 / 0 0 20 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 85 49 88 53 / 0 0 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 80 55 84 57 / 0 5 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 84 53 87 56 / 0 0 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 87 55 91 59 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 78 51 80 54 / 0 10 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 79 50 81 53 / 0 5 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 80 47 82 51 / 5 5 20 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 81 43 83 47 / 5 0 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 75 46 77 50 / 20 10 30 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 79 46 82 50 / 0 0 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 77 48 81 51 / 0 0 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 80 53 84 57 / 0 0 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 74 48 76 50 / 10 5 60 30
CAPULIN......................... 61 41 72 45 / 80 40 30 20
RATON........................... 68 43 77 47 / 60 40 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 70 44 79 48 / 60 40 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 72 45 75 49 / 30 20 20 30
CLAYTON......................... 66 48 77 51 / 80 50 20 20
ROY............................. 69 46 76 51 / 40 40 10 20
CONCHAS......................... 78 50 83 54 / 20 20 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 76 49 80 53 / 20 20 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 79 51 85 56 / 20 20 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 81 53 85 56 / 20 20 10 20
PORTALES........................ 82 52 86 57 / 20 20 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 80 52 84 55 / 20 20 5 20
ROSWELL......................... 84 57 87 60 / 10 10 5 20
PICACHO......................... 80 52 82 56 / 20 10 20 30
ELK............................. 81 49 82 54 / 10 10 40 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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