498
FXUS65 KABQ 290046 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
646 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, STRONG WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL FAVOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS FAR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AND OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
RECENT RADAR AND NEAR-TERM MODEL TRENDS SHOW INCREASED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT OVER EASTERN NM. RAISED POPS IN THE
AREA FROM NEAR EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-
CENTRAL NM TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
AN UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON IS
PULLING UP LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY
EASTERN NM. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE (PWATS BETWEEN 0.5 TO 0.8 INCHES)
COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK ROTATING NORTHEAST OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO IS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TO MID THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS
NORTHEAST OF RUIDOSO, SO THE SEVEN CABINS BURN SCAR WILL NEED TO
WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING. THESE ISOLATED STORMS LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. MEANWHILE, IT WILL BE DRY AND
BREEZY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MAY.
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY OPENS UP AS IT SWINGS OVER SOUTHERN NV,
SOUTHERN UT, AND NORTHERN AZ FRIDAY. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE
NM/TX BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE DUE TO HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35
TO 40 KTS. MEANWHILE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, DEEP MIXING WILL
TAP INTO DRIER AND STRONGER 500-700 WINDS OF 30 TO 45 KTS RESULTING
IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 MPH COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY
FUELS WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AND TURN WESTERLY
LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
DRY WEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY SOUTH OF
AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN WYOMING. WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER SATURDAY DUE TO FRIDAY EVENING'S FRONT WHILE EASTERN NM
WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS. BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NM
SUNDAY WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF A STALLED UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK TROUGH BEGINS DEVELOPING OFF SOUTHERN CA
ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WEAK
TROUGH OFF SOUTHERN CA MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE DESERT SW TUESDAY AND
CLOSES OFF INTO A BAGGY UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW AND NORTHERN
MEXICO NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHER MOISTURE
AND BETTER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY WITH DRIER SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TUESDAY WILL PUSH THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE WEST TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY AND NEXT
THURSDAY. SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION DUE TO A LACK OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY-NEXT THURSDAY ALONG WITH SOILS BECOMING
MORE SATURATED DURING THE PERIOD WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS, ESPECIALLY THE ONES ACROSS
LINCOLN COUNTY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
A COUPLE AREAS OF SHRA/TS FROM NEAR RUIDOSO NORTH TOWARD MORIARTY
AND FROM NEAR RATON TO CLAYTON WILL CONTINUE THRU 10PM. CONVECTIVE
SIGMETS AND CENTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. STORM MOTION
IS NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 15-25KT BUT A COUPLE CELLS HAVE ANCHORED TO
TERRAIN WITH MOTIONS <10KT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN MOST
AREAS EXCEPT EASTERN NM FROM KROW TO KTCC WHERE SHRA MAY PERSIST
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL CIGS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM FRIDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING BY
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER EASTERN NM AFTER 2PM THEN MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO WEST TX.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS, COMBINED WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND DRY FUELS ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL RESULT
IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS, AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND A HIGHER RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY DUE TO BORDERLINE WINDS ACROSS SOCORRO AND WHITE SANDS
MISSILE RANGE AND LOWER ERC VALUES ACROSS THE ALBUQUERQUE AREA DUE
TO PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MAY THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHER MOISTURE GRADUALLY EXPANDS WESTWARD BEGINNING TUESDAY
RESULTING IN HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND NEXT
THURSDAY. SLOW STORM MOTION AND SOILS BECOMING MORE SATURATED DURING
THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 83 44 76 / 5 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 43 79 34 72 / 10 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 48 77 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 40 78 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 44 76 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 45 80 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 45 77 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 54 81 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 48 76 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 42 77 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 46 81 42 82 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 41 72 34 66 / 10 0 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 78 49 76 / 20 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 48 76 44 73 / 30 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 74 43 71 / 10 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 40 65 36 61 / 10 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 70 35 67 / 10 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 46 77 41 75 / 10 5 0 0
MORA............................ 47 73 42 74 / 30 10 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 53 84 46 81 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 54 78 48 75 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 52 81 46 78 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 61 85 55 82 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 86 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 56 89 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 58 86 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 54 90 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 58 87 53 84 / 5 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 53 89 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 58 87 53 84 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 54 89 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 58 85 54 81 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 86 53 83 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 60 90 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 79 49 76 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 54 81 49 77 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 52 80 47 77 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 49 82 45 79 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 77 47 75 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 51 80 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 52 79 48 78 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 81 56 80 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 55 76 52 76 / 10 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 45 76 43 78 / 20 20 5 0
RATON........................... 47 79 43 81 / 20 10 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 48 81 44 83 / 20 10 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 76 45 76 / 40 10 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 52 81 50 85 / 10 5 5 0
ROY............................. 50 79 47 82 / 20 20 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 55 86 53 89 / 20 20 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 84 52 86 / 30 20 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 87 56 91 / 20 30 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 59 85 56 89 / 20 30 0 0
PORTALES........................ 59 85 56 90 / 20 30 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 86 53 89 / 30 20 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 61 89 57 94 / 30 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 56 85 54 87 / 30 5 0 0
ELK............................. 54 81 53 83 / 20 5 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ101-105-109.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ105.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...42
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