201
FXUS65 KABQ 290904
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
304 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1252 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, STRONG WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
CLOSER TO NEW MEXICO'S EASTERN BORDER.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A RISK OF
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, BRIEF DOWNPOURS,
AND FLASH FLOODING BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 1252 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM CA TODAY, CROSS UT TONIGHT, THEN REACH WY BY SATURDAY. IT
STARTED STRENGTHENING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM YESTERDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STATEWIDE TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON, SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND
GUSTS WILL PEAK IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD, EXCEPT FOR GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
AROUND GALLUP. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO PLUMMET FROM 9-15 PERCENT WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, EXCEPT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AS A RESULT,
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN ZONES FROM 11 AM
TO 8 PM MDT TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK WIDELY-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING AS IT FINISHES PASSING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. THE
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE THAT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW CELLS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 30-40 KT OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, AND SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 1000-2200 J/KG,
SOME STORMS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY TURN SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
BY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. THE DRY AIR IS
FORECAST TO MAKE SWIFT PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD, CAUSING STORMS TO
EXIT NM'S FAR EASTERN PLAINS BY 6 PM, OR SO.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE TRENDS
GRADUALLY WEAKER. NONETHELESS, A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
ON THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN PEAKS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ON THE PLAINS; HOWEVER, THIS RISK WILL BE MITIGATED BY
GREENUP OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM NEAR TO AROUND 8
DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020 AVERAGES TODAY AND SATURDAY, THEN CLIMB
NEAR TO AROUND 7 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THEN MAKE PROGRESS OVER
WESTERN AREAS AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CA. THE LATEST VERSION OF THE NBM
KEEPS NM'S WEATHER DRY MONDAY, BUT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS, EUROPEAN, AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL DEPICT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN AND BETWEEN-MODEL CONSISTENCY OF
THESE MODELS, AND GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW,
THE NBM (AND OUR FORECAST GRIDS) WILL MOST LIKELY BEGIN DEPICTING
STORMS OVER EASTERN NM ON MONDAY IN THE NEXT FORECAST RUN OR TWO.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER NM
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED-TO-ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND SPOTTIER ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST. WITH PWATS
GENERALLY VARYING AROUND 0.80-1.25" OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, SHOULD
GENERALLY VARY FROM 0.25-1.25", WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AS IS THE
NATURE OF CONVECTION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS INCREASE STARTING
TUESDAY, THEN CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY PEAK
ON MONDAY FROM NEAR TO AROUND 8 DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES,
THEN TREND COOLER AS THE GULF MOISTURE MOVES IN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
WITH A DISTURBANCE CROSSING ALOFT, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY REACH AROUND 30-35
KT FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD,
EXCEPT UP TO 45 KT AROUND GALLUP. MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TRIGGERING ISOLATED
AND WIDELY-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
TURN SEVERE BY DEVELOPING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIP ENDING BY SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
PLUMMET NEAR AND BELOW 15 PERCENT DAILY THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN
TREND UPWARD THERE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY, BUT THE MOST WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHERE A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS ERCS CLIMB NEAR THE 70TH
PERCENTILE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE AREA FROM GALLUP TO FARMINGTON
AND DULCE IS LIKELY TO MISS OUT ON THE WETTING PRECIP THAT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ENJOY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALSO, WETTING PRECIP MAY BE PRETTY SPOTTY IN THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, NORTHWEST, AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MIDWEEK.
FURTHER, THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE GULF MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT TODAY, THEN PLUMMET NEAR AND BELOW 15
PERCENT SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MONDAY AS GULF
MOISTURE BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ERCS ON SATURDAY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ARE FORECAST TO VARY FROM 40TH-60TH
PERCENTILES, SO THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THAT
AFTERNOON AREN'T AS CONCERNING AS THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN A WEEK AGO;
ESPECIALLY WITH THE GREENUP THAT IS LIKELY OCCURRING DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 83 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 79 33 72 32 / 5 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 77 40 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 77 36 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 75 39 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 80 39 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 76 40 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 79 49 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 75 43 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 80 38 82 39 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 85 42 85 44 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 72 33 66 33 / 5 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 76 48 73 49 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 77 45 73 43 / 10 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 73 42 70 42 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 64 31 62 35 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 32 66 33 / 20 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 76 41 73 39 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 74 43 74 41 / 20 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 83 46 81 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 77 49 74 50 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 80 47 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 84 57 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 86 53 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 88 52 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 86 54 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 88 51 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 86 54 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 87 49 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 88 54 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 87 51 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 82 54 78 53 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 86 54 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 90 55 89 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 79 50 75 50 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 82 47 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 82 46 78 42 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 82 42 78 38 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 77 48 73 45 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 80 47 78 44 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 79 49 77 46 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 82 56 81 56 / 10 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 75 51 75 51 / 10 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 71 43 74 41 / 20 5 0 0
RATON........................... 76 44 78 40 / 20 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 78 46 79 41 / 20 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 76 47 75 42 / 20 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 78 51 82 50 / 20 5 0 0
ROY............................. 76 48 80 45 / 20 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 84 54 86 49 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 54 82 48 / 20 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 85 57 88 51 / 30 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 85 57 88 53 / 30 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 86 58 90 53 / 30 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 84 55 87 51 / 30 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 91 59 93 55 / 10 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 85 54 87 54 / 10 0 0 0
ELK............................. 84 54 86 51 / 10 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ101-105-109.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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