926
FXUS65 KABQ 291712 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1112 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, STRONG WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
CLOSER TO NEW MEXICO'S EASTERN BORDER.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS MIDDAY THROUGH THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A RISK OF
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, BRIEF DOWNPOURS,
AND FLASH FLOODING BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS. SOME CELLS WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE
RAIN AND A RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 1252 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM CA TODAY, CROSS UT TONIGHT, THEN REACH WY BY SATURDAY. IT
STARTED STRENGTHENING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM YESTERDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STATEWIDE TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON, SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND
GUSTS WILL PEAK IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD, EXCEPT FOR GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
AROUND GALLUP. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO PLUMMET FROM 9-15 PERCENT WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, EXCEPT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AS A RESULT,
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN ZONES FROM 12-8
PM MDT TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK WIDELY-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING AS IT FINISHES PASSING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. THE
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE THAT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW CELLS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 30-40 KT OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, AND SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 1000-2200 J/KG,
SOME STORMS ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS MAY TURN SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON BY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. THE DRY
AIR IS FORECAST TO MAKE SWIFT PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD, CAUSING
STORMS TO EXIT NM'S FAR EASTERN PLAINS BY 6 PM, OR SO.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE TRENDS
GRADUALLY WEAKER. NONETHELESS, A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
ON THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN PEAKS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ON THE PLAINS; HOWEVER, THIS RISK WILL BE MITIGATED BY
GREENUP OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM NEAR TO AROUND 8
DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020 AVERAGES TODAY AND SATURDAY, THEN CLIMB
NEAR TO AROUND 7 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THEN PROGRESS OVER WESTERN
AREAS AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CA. THE LATEST VERSION OF THE NBM KEEPS
NM'S WEATHER DRY MONDAY, BUT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS,
EUROPEAN, AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL DEPICT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GIVEN
THE RUN-TO-RUN AND BETWEEN-MODEL CONSISTENCY OF THESE MODELS, AND
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW, THE NBM (AND OUR
FORECAST GRIDS) WILL MOST LIKELY BEGIN DEPICTING STORMS OVER
EASTERN NM ON MONDAY IN THE NEXT FORECAST RUN OR TWO.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER NM
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND SPOTTIER ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST. WITH
PWATS GENERALLY VARYING AROUND 0.80-1.25" OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
SHOULD GENERALLY VARY FROM 0.25-1.25", WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
THAT COULD EXCEED 3.0". AS A RESULT, WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS INCREASE STARTING
TUESDAY, THEN CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY PEAK
ON MONDAY FROM NEAR TO AROUND 8 DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES,
THEN TREND COOLER AS THE GULF MOISTURE MOVES IN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO BETWEEN 35-45KTS ACROSS
WESTERN NM. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR KABQ
SHORTLY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND DECREASE BEHIND A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
PLUMMET NEAR AND BELOW 15 PERCENT DAILY THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN
TREND UPWARD THERE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY, BUT THE MOST WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHERE A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS ERCS CLIMB NEAR THE 70TH
PERCENTILE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE AREA FROM GALLUP TO FARMINGTON
AND DULCE IS LIKELY TO MISS OUT ON THE WETTING PRECIP THAT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ENJOY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALSO, WETTING PRECIP MAY BE PRETTY SPOTTY IN THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, NORTHWEST, AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MIDWEEK.
FURTHER, THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE GULF MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT TODAY, THEN PLUMMET NEAR AND BELOW 15
PERCENT SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MONDAY AS GULF
MOISTURE BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ERCS ON SATURDAY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ARE FORECAST TO VARY FROM 40TH-60TH
PERCENTILES, SO THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THAT
AFTERNOON AREN'T AS CONCERNING AS THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN A WEEK AGO;
ESPECIALLY WITH THE GREENUP THAT IS LIKELY OCCURRING DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 83 45 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 79 38 72 33 / 5 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 77 40 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 77 37 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 75 39 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 80 40 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 76 41 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 79 49 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 75 43 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 80 38 80 40 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 85 42 83 44 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 72 36 67 34 / 5 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 76 49 73 49 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 77 44 74 43 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 73 43 70 42 / 5 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 64 37 61 33 / 10 10 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 32 65 29 / 20 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 76 44 73 39 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 74 44 73 41 / 20 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 83 48 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 77 47 75 50 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 80 46 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 84 55 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 86 54 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 88 53 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 86 53 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 88 51 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 86 53 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 87 49 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 88 52 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 87 50 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 82 54 78 53 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 86 54 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 90 56 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 79 50 74 49 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 82 50 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 82 48 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 82 43 78 39 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 77 47 74 45 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 80 48 77 45 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 79 48 77 46 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 82 56 80 56 / 10 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 75 51 75 52 / 10 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 71 44 76 41 / 20 20 0 0
RATON........................... 76 44 80 40 / 20 20 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 78 46 81 41 / 20 10 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 76 47 75 42 / 20 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 78 52 84 50 / 20 10 0 0
ROY............................. 76 49 81 46 / 20 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 84 55 88 49 / 20 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 55 84 48 / 20 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 85 56 90 50 / 30 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 85 57 88 53 / 30 10 0 0
PORTALES........................ 86 58 90 52 / 30 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 84 55 88 50 / 30 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 91 59 94 55 / 10 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 85 55 86 53 / 10 5 0 0
ELK............................. 84 53 83 51 / 10 5 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ101-105-109.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NMZ205.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11
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