637
FXUS65 KABQ 211922
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
122 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 113 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT INDUCED ILLNESS THROUGH LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS WHERE HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S WILL BE EACH
DAY. LOCALIZED MAJOR HEAT RISK LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WHEN TEMPERATURES PEAK.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THRU
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN NORTHEASTERN NM EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A FLATTENED RIDGE IS STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TODAY, WITH WEAK AND VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM. IT WILL BE EXTREMELY
DRY OUT THERE TODAY WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW 5% IN MANY AREAS.
IT WILL ALSO BE HOT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND 100S IN LOWER
ELEVATION LOCALES AND 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT IS THE SUMMER
SOLSTICE TODAY SO THE SUN WILL BE VERY POWERFUL WITH UV INDICES OF
12 TO 13. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD
TONIGHT, CREATING BRIEF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SQUEAK THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE, CREATING A BRIEF EAST/SOUTHEAST BREEZE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS IN EAST ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE.
THE FLATTENED MONSOON RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AND SHIFT NORTHWARD
MONDAY AND THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS THAT WERE NOT IMPACTED BY THE BACKDOOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE THE NIGHT BEFORE. HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING STORMS
INITIATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS AND ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS MAY END UP CLIPPING UNION
AND/OR COLFAX COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.
FURTHER SOUTH, SUBSIDENCE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR PREVENTING ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THE MONSOON RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AS IT NUDGES
NORTHWARD. 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 598 DAM COULD MAKE IT ONE OF THE
HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR IN MANY AREAS AND HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NM AND IT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY CONVECTION WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE DRY
WITH SFC RH AROUND 10-15% AND 700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25C.
STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS COULD BE SLIGHTLY WETTER ALTHOUGH
MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE KEEPING ANY CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFF
TO THE EAST OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH COMES DOWN 1 DAM OR 2 ON
WEDNESDAY, HELPING TEMPERATURES DROP A COUPLE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COULD HELP TO
COOL TEMPS THERE A FEW MORE DEGREES. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT
ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL TREND UP AS A
RESULT, ALTHOUGH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL STILL BE OF A DRIER NATURE AND POSE A THREAT OF STARTING
ADDITIONAL FIRES. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE
DAYS OF THE WEEK IN TERMS OF STORM COVERAGE WITH SCATTERED TO EVEN
WIDESPREAD STORMS. TYPICAL MONSOON HAZARDS WILL BE IN PLAY EACH DAY
WITH LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARDS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DRY WESTERLY BREEZES WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH FIRE WEATHER AND HEAT BECOMING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ONCE AGAIN.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A LIGHT WEST BREEZE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT, REACHING THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AROUND 09Z.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ITS INITIAL PASSAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS IN LOCATIONS
SUCH AS KTCC, KCVN, AND KROW BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z. MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY (10-30% CHANCE).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
IT IS VERY DRY AROUND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY PREVAILING AREAWIDE.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND THIS HAS HELPED
TO KEEP FIRE ACTIVITY LOW THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AROUND CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT AS
THE MONSOON RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
A BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NM TONIGHT,
REPLENISHING MOISTURE AND POTENTIALLY SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST NM AGAIN ON MONDAY, WITH COVERAGE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH DRIER STORMS FAVORED IN THE WEST AND
WETTER STORMS FAVORED IN THE EAST. DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN IN WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM ON WEDNESDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEST WINDS TREND
STRONGER. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO MORE
WIND OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE HOT AND VERY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DRYING OF FUELS AND NEGATE AND
SMALL IMPROVEMENTS MADE FROM MID-WEEK SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 93 54 95 55 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 89 44 92 44 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 88 52 91 53 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 89 46 91 49 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 86 49 89 52 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 92 49 94 53 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 89 51 91 55 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 92 59 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 89 53 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 95 47 98 51 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 98 53 101 57 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 83 45 86 45 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 89 60 90 61 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 89 53 90 54 / 0 0 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 51 88 54 / 0 0 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 78 44 79 45 / 0 0 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 82 40 82 42 / 0 0 20 0
TAOS............................ 89 50 90 50 / 0 0 5 0
MORA............................ 88 51 86 51 / 0 0 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 96 56 98 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 90 58 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 55 93 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 96 65 96 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 97 62 97 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 99 60 100 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 62 98 63 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 100 58 100 59 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 98 60 99 62 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 99 57 99 58 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 99 60 99 62 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 99 58 99 59 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 94 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 98 61 98 62 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 104 66 103 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 58 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 91 59 92 60 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 92 55 94 55 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 93 51 95 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 93 56 94 57 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 93 57 93 58 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 97 64 97 64 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 89 60 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 88 52 79 51 / 0 30 20 10
RATON........................... 93 53 85 52 / 0 20 20 10
SPRINGER........................ 94 55 86 53 / 0 20 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 91 54 88 54 / 0 0 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 96 60 80 58 / 0 40 20 20
ROY............................. 93 59 83 56 / 0 10 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 101 63 91 61 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 97 61 92 60 / 0 0 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 102 64 90 63 / 0 10 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 102 63 95 65 / 0 0 10 0
PORTALES........................ 104 63 97 65 / 0 0 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 101 63 95 64 / 0 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 106 67 102 68 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 100 65 96 62 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 97 62 96 59 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ238.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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