632
FXUS65 KABQ 231815 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1215 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT INDUCED ILLNESS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS WHERE HIGHS PEAK IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S EACH
DAY. LOCALIZED MAJOR HEAT RISK EXISTS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- DRY AND WINDY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING THE
THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF EL PASO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH SHOULD TOP OUT AT 598DAM AT H5 THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AND INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM AND
WILL NOT BE ALTERED.
OTHERWISE, A MOISTURE BOUNDARY IS PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM
EARLY THIS MORNING AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND FAR EAST CENTRAL NM BEHIND IT. AS WINDS VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING, THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE
AND MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL MIX BACK OUT. MAY SEE A STORM OR TWO
ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN OR SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY NEAR THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY, BUT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THERE WILL ALSO BE MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT ROUNDS THE HIGH
INTO SOUTHWEST NM, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SPRINKLES AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THIS EVENING, AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL BACK INTO NORTHEAST NM AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG IT. IF A STORM FORMS, IT COULD BE SEVERE, BUT MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY TO THE NE OF NM, MUCH LIKE THIS PAST
EVENING. NONETHELESS, THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WESTWARD TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. COULDN'T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN TO 595DAM ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SINK
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE, MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS NM. HOWEVER, WITH DEEP INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG, WETTING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCARCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
RATHER, MAINLY DRY STORMS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE
RULE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PWATS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING, THUS BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXISTS
THROUGH THE EVENING AS LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A
DIFFERENT STORY IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN NM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RATHER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND AS
THEY SHIFT EASTWARD, THEY WILL ENCOUNTER PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
40-50KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALLOWING THEM TO BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN A BIT MORE AND FLATTEN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE DIRECT PATHWAY FOR PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
STREAM INTO THE STATE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 0.8-0.9 INCHES
AREAWIDE SO THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION,
THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE RATHER QUICK LIMITING AMOUNTS AT ANY
ONE LOCATION. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE, BUT SHOULD HAVE A
SLIGHT PREFERENCE TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM AS DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
INHIBIT STORMS A BIT ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER BOUNDARY
WILL BE LINGERING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM, AND THIS COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE. CAN'T RULE OUT
A STRONG STORM ELSEWHERE, BUT THE FAVORED SPOT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NE NM. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER NM ON FRIDAY AND DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER, STORMS TEND TO LIKE
MOISTURE GRADIENTS, SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS IS
EXPECTED. STORMS WILL BE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY TO THE EAST, SO ANY
ONE LOCATION WON'T GET MUCH PRECIPITATION. STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, HOWEVER.
MOISTURE MIXES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SETTING THE STAGE FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST MOISTURE RETURNS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY, THE EC KEEPS DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE GFS
SHOWS RETURN FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NM AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO AROUND 12 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020
AVERAGES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL MAKE DENSITY ALTITUDE AN
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS NEAR COMPLEX
TERRAIN. ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED,
BRIEF, AND ERRATIC DRY-MICROBURST WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WITH
SOME POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL BLOWING DUST. TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE A
20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA
FROM RATON TO CLAYTON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE BY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A BACKDOOR FRONT AIDED BY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL ALSO DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH A GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT,
EXCEPT FOR A MORE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IN THE LOWER PECOS RIVER
VALLEY. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, THOUGH A FEW
VIRGA SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE
(ZONE 109) MAY RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY, MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, RESULTING IN DRY STORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS. AS PWATS INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING,
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MEANWHILE,
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON THURSDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR MEASURABLE, IF NOT WETTING, PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE
THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE QUICK, LIMITING AMOUNTS AT ANY ONE
LOCATION. SCATTERED STORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN ON FRIDAY, THOUGH
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN SHIFTING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. STORM
MOTIONS WILL REMAIN QUICK TOWARD THE EAST, SO AGAIN, PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. THIS COULD BE ESPECIALLY PROBLEMATIC AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIGHTNING. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WED-FRI
WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE, IF ANY, IMPACT ON FUEL STATUS (THE DRY
VEGETATION). THUS, IT'S LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHTNING
STARTED FIRES THAT MAKE THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN AND START TO SPREAD
OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN NEXT WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL COME BACK
MONDAY OR WAIT TIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 97 60 94 59 / 0 0 10 40
DULCE........................... 92 47 91 46 / 0 0 10 40
CUBA............................ 92 58 91 55 / 0 0 10 40
GALLUP.......................... 94 56 92 50 / 0 0 20 50
EL MORRO........................ 92 57 91 53 / 0 0 20 40
GRANTS.......................... 95 57 93 52 / 0 0 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 92 58 91 56 / 0 5 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 95 66 92 62 / 0 0 20 20
DATIL........................... 92 61 89 57 / 5 0 30 10
RESERVE......................... 96 55 98 53 / 5 5 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 101 61 103 60 / 0 0 10 20
CHAMA........................... 86 47 85 46 / 0 0 10 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 92 64 90 61 / 0 0 10 40
PECOS........................... 92 57 92 55 / 0 0 5 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 88 55 87 55 / 0 0 10 50
RED RIVER....................... 79 47 79 47 / 0 0 20 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 83 43 83 43 / 0 0 10 50
TAOS............................ 92 52 90 52 / 0 0 0 40
MORA............................ 89 54 88 52 / 0 0 20 40
ESPANOLA........................ 98 59 97 58 / 0 0 5 40
SANTA FE........................ 93 63 92 61 / 0 0 5 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 96 60 95 58 / 0 0 5 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 97 70 99 67 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 100 66 100 64 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 101 66 102 63 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 99 67 100 65 / 0 0 0 20
BELEN........................... 103 64 101 62 / 0 0 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 100 66 100 64 / 0 0 0 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 101 63 100 61 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 100 66 101 64 / 0 0 0 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 102 64 101 62 / 0 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 97 67 97 65 / 0 0 0 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 100 66 100 64 / 0 0 0 20
SOCORRO......................... 104 72 104 68 / 0 0 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 92 64 94 61 / 0 0 0 20
TIJERAS......................... 94 64 95 60 / 0 0 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 95 60 96 57 / 0 0 0 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 97 56 97 54 / 0 0 0 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 93 58 92 55 / 0 0 10 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 94 60 97 57 / 0 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 95 63 95 59 / 0 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 99 68 99 65 / 0 0 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 90 63 92 61 / 0 0 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 92 53 84 52 / 5 20 60 30
RATON........................... 96 55 89 52 / 0 20 50 20
SPRINGER........................ 98 56 89 54 / 0 10 50 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 93 57 89 55 / 0 0 50 40
CLAYTON......................... 97 60 85 60 / 10 20 10 20
ROY............................. 95 59 87 56 / 5 10 40 40
CONCHAS......................... 104 64 95 61 / 0 5 10 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 102 63 94 60 / 0 0 10 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 104 67 95 63 / 0 5 5 40
CLOVIS.......................... 101 67 99 64 / 0 0 10 50
PORTALES........................ 102 68 100 65 / 0 5 10 50
FORT SUMNER..................... 103 67 98 64 / 0 0 0 30
ROSWELL......................... 105 70 104 68 / 5 0 10 20
PICACHO......................... 99 66 99 63 / 5 0 20 10
ELK............................. 95 64 98 61 / 5 0 20 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ207-219>221-225-
226-238>240.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...44
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