912
FXUS65 KABQ 240527
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1127 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT INDUCED ILLNESS ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS EACH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED MAJOR HEAT RISK IN SOME SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WHEN THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS, AND A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STORMS WITH LIGHTER RAIN, LIGHTNING,
AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
- DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING THE
THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A FEW HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOW DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NM TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF NM MAY HELP TRIGGER THE
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NM. THIS GUSTY AND MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT, WHERE
A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE,
A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EL PASO
TODAY WILL WEAKEN/FLATTEN OUT SOME AND NUDGE SOUTHWARD A LITTLE
ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY
RIDES AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. ASIDE FROM INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO INCREASE ELEVATED MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH. INVERTED-V
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT PROFILES WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, AND PWATS THERE ONLY AROUND 0.50-0.80", WILL RESULT IN SOME
VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS IN THE MIX WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DCAPE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS GENERALLY
VARYING AROUND 800-1800 J/KG, AND LOCALLY UP TO 2400 J/KG AROUND
GALLUP, WILL ENABLE SOME OF THESE TO PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH, EXCEPT UP TO 60 MPH AROUND GALLUP, AND BLOWING DUST
WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL REACHING THE SURFACE. STORMS WILL BE
WETTER ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE PWATS WILL VARY FROM 0.80-1.00". SOME
STORMS WILL ALSO TURN SEVERE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM
ON WEDNESDAY, AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VARIES FROM 25-45 KT AND CAPE
VARIES FROM 1800-3500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT, BUT WITH STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL A FEW TO AS MUCH AS 12
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY'S READINGS, EXCEPT FOR
LITTLE CHANGE LONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BORDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM THE MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT, AND THE
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT, ANOTHER COOLING FACTOR ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE NBM SUGGESTS ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM ALBUQUERQUE
SOUTHWARD, AND ALSO AROUND ROSWELL. HOWEVER, A REVIEW OF MODEL
INPUTS TO THE NBM INDICATES WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY BIAS CORRECTED MODEL OUTPUT. THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL MAKE WEDNESDAY
UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS DAYS THIS WEEK WHEN THE MODEL BIAS DEVELOPED,
SO WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE FORECAST HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY A
LITTLE BELOW THE NBM ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS. TONIGHT'S NIGHT SHIFT WILL RE-EVALUATE
THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FRIDAY AS THE DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WEAKEN THE UPPER HIGH AND
FLATTEN IT OUT FURTHER. PWATS WILL CLIMB SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS
BETTER MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD OVER THE STATE UNDER THE
RIDGE ALOFT, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS IN THE MIX OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RISK OF GUSTY AND DRY STORMS MAY SPREAD TO
PARTS OF THE EAST AS WELL ON FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK
ITS WAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST DECREASING STORM
COVERAGE SOME.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL THEN FEATURE VERY DRY, BREEZY TO WINDY,
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
US. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH A
RISK OF ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN,
CENTRAL, AND WESTERN PARTS OF NM. HOWEVER, A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY BEGIN TO
STEER BETTER GULF MOISTURE OVER NM'S SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MONDAY ENABLING WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
THERE.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO VARY FROM NEAR TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM
WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40KT BEHIND IT.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLDU IS POSSIBLE. THESE
GUSTS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. MEANWHILE, THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CO PERSIST, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF NM. HOWEVER, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS
WILL PRESS INTO NE NM, SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, AND BACK UP TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR VIRGA AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM WED AFTN. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35KT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 06Z
THU.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AFTER HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY, THEN INCREASE FURTHER IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY, BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
VIRGA SHOWERS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DRIER CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT FRIDAY, WHEN
GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD TO PARTS OF
EASTERN NM AS WELL. AFTER THREE DAYS OF LIGHTNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, A FIRE GROWING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND,
AND POTENTIALLY INTO MONDAY, AS VERY DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVER THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 61 94 59 90 / 0 20 50 20
DULCE........................... 47 92 47 86 / 0 20 40 10
CUBA............................ 58 91 55 85 / 0 20 40 40
GALLUP.......................... 56 91 51 87 / 0 30 30 40
EL MORRO........................ 57 90 53 84 / 0 20 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 57 93 53 88 / 0 40 30 40
QUEMADO......................... 58 90 56 85 / 0 20 20 60
MAGDALENA....................... 66 91 62 88 / 0 30 10 60
DATIL........................... 61 88 58 85 / 0 30 10 60
RESERVE......................... 55 97 53 93 / 5 30 30 30
GLENWOOD........................ 61 102 60 98 / 0 10 20 30
CHAMA........................... 48 85 46 79 / 0 10 50 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 90 61 84 / 0 20 30 40
PECOS........................... 57 92 56 87 / 0 10 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 88 55 81 / 0 10 40 30
RED RIVER....................... 47 79 47 73 / 0 10 50 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 84 43 78 / 0 10 50 20
TAOS............................ 52 91 53 85 / 0 10 40 20
MORA............................ 54 88 53 84 / 0 20 30 20
ESPANOLA........................ 59 97 59 91 / 0 10 30 40
SANTA FE........................ 63 92 61 86 / 0 10 30 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 95 59 90 / 0 10 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 99 68 93 / 0 5 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 100 64 94 / 0 5 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 101 63 96 / 0 10 20 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 100 65 94 / 0 10 20 60
BELEN........................... 64 101 62 96 / 0 5 20 60
BERNALILLO...................... 66 100 65 94 / 0 10 20 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 100 61 95 / 0 5 20 60
CORRALES........................ 66 101 64 95 / 0 10 20 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 101 62 95 / 0 5 20 60
PLACITAS........................ 67 97 66 91 / 0 10 20 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 100 64 94 / 0 10 20 50
SOCORRO......................... 72 103 68 99 / 0 10 10 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 94 61 88 / 0 5 20 50
TIJERAS......................... 64 95 61 89 / 0 10 20 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 96 57 91 / 0 5 20 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 97 55 93 / 0 5 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 92 56 88 / 0 10 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 97 57 92 / 0 0 20 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 95 59 91 / 0 5 20 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 99 66 96 / 0 10 10 20
RUIDOSO......................... 63 92 61 90 / 0 20 10 20
CAPULIN......................... 53 84 52 86 / 10 50 40 20
RATON........................... 55 90 52 90 / 0 40 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 56 90 54 91 / 0 40 40 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 90 56 88 / 0 30 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 60 86 60 94 / 20 20 20 20
ROY............................. 59 88 57 91 / 0 40 40 10
CONCHAS......................... 64 96 61 100 / 0 30 30 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 94 60 95 / 0 30 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 96 64 100 / 0 20 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 67 99 65 100 / 0 10 40 20
PORTALES........................ 68 100 66 101 / 0 5 40 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 98 64 99 / 0 20 40 20
ROSWELL......................... 70 104 69 103 / 0 0 20 20
PICACHO......................... 66 99 64 98 / 0 20 10 30
ELK............................. 64 98 62 97 / 0 20 10 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page