220
FXUS65 KABQ 032336 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
536 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
- THE RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL TREND UP BEGINNING
SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. HEAT-ILLNESSES
WILL INCREASE FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SMOKE FROM THE SACATON FIRE IN THE
GILA. SMOKE WILL TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOCORRO AND BELEN
TODAY, THOUGH IT'S EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALOFT IN THESE AREAS, MUCH
LIKE THIS MORNING. ANY VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL BE FOCUSED CLOSER TO
THE FIRE. NONETHELESS, SMOKE AND HAZE WILL BE VISIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM. ADDITIONALLY, IT'S POSSIBLE SMOKE
FROM THE POCKET FIRE NEAR SEDONA, AZ WILL SHIFT OVER NORTHWEST NM
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. AGAIN, SMOKE WILL REMAIN ALOFT.
WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BUBBLING CU ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY
PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN ADDITION TO LIGHT RAIN.
OTHERWISE, THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. PWATS WILL CREEP UPWARD, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN VIRGA ACROSS WESTERN NM AND A FEW MORE STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE INTRODUCED
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS BASED ON VARIOUS CAM DEPICTIONS OF QPF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM STORMS IN KS WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS EASTERN NM. IT SEEMS THAT MOTHER NATURE WILL HAVE A FEW
FIREWORKS OF HER OWN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOCAL AND
AZ ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH ON SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND NORTHERN NM. THIS WILL BRING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN NM. ON SUNDAY, THIS WILL ONLY
RESULT IN MORE VIRGA, A FEW MORE SPRINKLES, AND LOWER CLOUD BASES,
BUT WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM ON
SATURDAY WILL HAVE PRESSED UP AGAINST THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE HIGH WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD, STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WILL TEND TO
SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AROUND 1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE AND MODEST SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN, LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FEW STORMS IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WITH PWATS
BETWEEN 0.8 AND 1.0 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS, STORM MAY
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM SHOULD PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND POINTS WESTWARD. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE OVERALL, A
TYPICAL MONSOON SET UP LOOKS TO PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FAVORING THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING ONTO LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
THE AID OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL MEANDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD, FROM BEING OVER WESTERN
NM ON MONDAY, TO SHIFTING WESTWARD TUESDAY AND FOCUSING OVER THE
CA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE NO BIG MOISTURE INTRUSIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, THE MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RECYCLE IN THE FORM OF DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHWEST NM WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY OVERALL,
ESPECIALLY AS DRIER AIR WILL NOSE INTO NORTHWEST NM WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. ALONG THE EDGES OF THIS DRIER AIR, THERE
COULD BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHRA/TS OVER SOUTHEAST NM WILL ELEVATE THE
RISK FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS >40KT NEAR KROW THRU SUNSET. AREAS
OF SMOKE MAY PRODUCE LOCAL VSBY REDUCTIONS OVER SOUTHWEST NM IN
THE VCNTY OF THE SACATON FIRE. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY
GREATER COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED SHRA/TS OVER SOUTHEAST NM WITH
A FEW STRONGER CELLS POSSIBLE. AN AREA OF VIRGA WITH DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER WEST-CENTRAL NM BY LATE DAY
THEN SHIFT EAST ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO THE RGV NEAR SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL
BUT THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. BETWEEN 6 AND 15 HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS WITH AN
EVEN LONGER DURATION. THESE DRY CONDITIONS ONLY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
ON SATURDAY. MOST OF THESE SAME AREAS WILL STILL SEE BETWEEN 6 AND
12 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY. THOUGH SOUTHWEST BREEZES ARE
NOTED TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN NM, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM IS SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES.
THE COMBINATION OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE SHIFTING AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND A MOIST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NM, WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY, STORMS
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
BUT BY MONDAY, STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
AREAWIDE. DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS APPEAR MORE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NM, ESPECIALLY WED AND THU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 51 94 55 95 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 43 91 45 91 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 50 90 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 43 91 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 51 88 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 47 91 54 89 / 0 5 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 53 87 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 61 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 55 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 49 93 55 91 / 0 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 51 98 59 97 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 45 85 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 88 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 54 91 56 87 / 0 0 0 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 86 53 85 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 40 78 43 75 / 0 0 0 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 82 38 79 / 0 0 0 40
TAOS............................ 47 90 51 87 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 50 88 54 81 / 0 5 0 60
ESPANOLA........................ 57 96 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 59 91 61 88 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 93 58 91 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 65 96 69 94 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 97 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 99 64 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 98 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 58 99 61 97 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 61 98 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 57 98 61 96 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 59 99 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 98 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 64 94 66 92 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 97 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 66 100 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 91 62 88 / 0 0 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 61 92 62 90 / 0 0 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 93 58 90 / 0 0 0 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 94 53 91 / 0 0 0 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 90 57 86 / 0 0 0 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 94 58 90 / 0 0 0 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 92 60 88 / 0 0 0 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 95 66 92 / 0 10 0 30
RUIDOSO......................... 60 87 61 84 / 5 40 5 50
CAPULIN......................... 57 88 53 82 / 0 0 30 80
RATON........................... 54 93 54 86 / 0 0 20 70
SPRINGER........................ 54 95 55 87 / 0 0 5 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 92 55 84 / 0 5 0 40
CLAYTON......................... 65 95 62 89 / 0 5 30 50
ROY............................. 62 94 59 86 / 0 0 10 60
CONCHAS......................... 67 101 65 95 / 0 0 10 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 97 64 92 / 0 0 5 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 102 67 94 / 0 0 30 40
CLOVIS.......................... 68 99 67 93 / 0 20 30 20
PORTALES........................ 69 100 68 95 / 0 20 30 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 100 67 96 / 0 10 10 30
ROSWELL......................... 70 101 71 98 / 5 20 5 10
PICACHO......................... 64 96 64 92 / 10 30 5 20
ELK............................. 61 93 62 89 / 10 40 10 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page