860
FXUS65 KABQ 230524 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1124 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1117 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE
HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
AT VARYING COVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
THE CLOSED LOW THAT CREATED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER WESTERN NM
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SE UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH
PWATS ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE. DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM FROM THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH HAS HELPED TO LIMIT
CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THUS
FAR TODAY. RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE SOUTH FORK AND SALT BURN SCARS, BUT 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS
ARE STILL WELL-ABOVE 1" AND REMAIN CAUSE FOR CONCERN. RAINFALL RATES
WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, WHERE LOCALLY
2"/HOUR RATES COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE SMALLER UPDRAFTS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WILL GENERALLY KEEP RAINFALL DURATIONS UNDER 1 HOUR THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HEAVY SUB-HOURLY RAINFALL IS STILL ENOUGH TO CREATE
ISSUES, PARTICULARLY IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER VALLEY WHERE LESS THAN 1"
IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD CAN BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
STORMS WILL BE MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND COULD
GET TIED TO S/N ORIENTED TERRAIN AS WELL. RAINFALL RATES WILL TREND
LOWER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING, WITH SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED STORMS FOCUSING OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD THURSDAY, CENTERING ITSELF OVER SOUTHEAST NM BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE DISTURBANCE OVER UTAH TODAY WILL THEN BE PULLED
EASTWARD, TREKKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. AS A
RESULT, STORM COVERAGE WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHERN NM, WITH LESSER RAIN
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-40. HI-RES MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CONT. DIVIDE, WITH THESE SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE RGV DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE FLASH
FLOOD RISK FOR THURSDAY WILL BE NOTABLY LOWER, WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING ITS WAY UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE. 90TH PERCENTILE
AMOUNTS FROM THE RRFS AND HREF STILL SHOW LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 1-2"
SO AN ISOLATED CASE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING OVERHEAD TOMORROW AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING,
TEMPERATURES WILL TICK UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST OF A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF 100 DEGREE HEAT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AND THE ROSWELL AREA COULD EVEN FLIRT WITH THE 105F DEGREE
MARK. THE NBM WAS NOTABLY COOLER ON TEMPS COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE, SO MAXTS WERE NUDGED A BIT HIGHER.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK WESTWARD ON FRIDAY, CENTERING
ITSELF SOMEWHERE OVER WESTERN NM. THIS WILL ALLOW STORM OUTFLOWS FROM
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION OVER SE COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT TO PUSH
MOISTURE SOUTH AND WESTWARD INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM FRIDAY.
STORMS WILL THEREFORE FOCUS OVER THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY WHEN RAIN
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
DAYS. THE STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES, BUT IT WILL STILL BE A HOT DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL LIKELY CHANGE LOCATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT ITS EXACT LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THE 3
ENSEMBLE MEANS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HIGH, SLOW
AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS ARE FAVORED, WHICH WILL ELEVATE THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE 100-130% OF NORMAL, WHICH
IS NOTABLE FOR LATE JULY BECAUSE IT IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK
IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH REGARD TO THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH, WITH THE
LOCATION RANGING FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO THE TX PANHANDLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
A FEW SPORADIC SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THIS HOUR, WITH SLOW CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER OVER FAR
WESTERN NM THRU THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME FOG POTENTIAL OVER
FAR WESTERN NM, BUT SLOW THE SLOW TO CLEAR BROKEN CEILINGS WILL
HELP LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. THEREFORE, DID NOT INCLUDE AT KFMN OR
KGUP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NM THURSDAY, LIMITING CONVECTION
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE TODAY, WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES TREND HIGHER AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RE-CENTERS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 91 66 98 / 50 10 5 0
DULCE........................... 55 86 54 93 / 80 30 20 20
CUBA............................ 59 86 60 90 / 60 30 20 5
GALLUP.......................... 59 87 60 92 / 60 10 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 57 84 59 87 / 50 20 10 40
GRANTS.......................... 59 88 60 92 / 50 20 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 58 85 60 89 / 50 40 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 63 88 66 90 / 10 30 10 40
DATIL........................... 58 84 61 87 / 20 30 20 40
RESERVE......................... 57 91 60 94 / 20 20 10 30
GLENWOOD........................ 62 96 64 99 / 20 20 10 10
CHAMA........................... 53 79 52 84 / 70 50 20 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 85 65 87 / 30 40 20 50
PECOS........................... 58 88 60 90 / 20 20 10 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 83 57 86 / 20 50 30 50
RED RIVER....................... 49 74 49 76 / 30 40 30 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 48 78 48 81 / 30 40 20 80
TAOS............................ 58 87 57 89 / 30 40 20 40
MORA............................ 56 86 57 85 / 10 30 20 70
ESPANOLA........................ 66 92 65 95 / 20 40 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 62 88 64 90 / 20 20 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 91 63 93 / 20 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 94 70 96 / 5 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 95 71 97 / 10 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 97 69 98 / 10 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 96 70 97 / 10 20 20 5
BELEN........................... 67 97 69 99 / 10 20 20 5
BERNALILLO...................... 67 96 69 98 / 10 20 20 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 65 96 67 98 / 10 20 20 5
CORRALES........................ 67 96 69 98 / 10 20 20 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 96 68 98 / 10 10 20 5
PLACITAS........................ 66 92 67 94 / 5 20 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 95 69 97 / 10 20 20 5
SOCORRO......................... 70 99 72 101 / 5 10 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 88 64 90 / 5 10 10 10
TIJERAS......................... 63 89 65 92 / 5 10 10 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 91 62 92 / 5 10 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 92 59 94 / 5 10 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 88 61 89 / 10 10 10 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 92 62 93 / 5 5 5 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 90 63 91 / 0 5 5 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 94 70 95 / 5 5 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 61 87 64 89 / 10 20 5 30
CAPULIN......................... 60 89 58 86 / 5 20 20 60
RATON........................... 61 93 59 91 / 10 30 20 70
SPRINGER........................ 61 95 60 93 / 10 30 20 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 89 60 88 / 10 20 10 60
CLAYTON......................... 68 100 67 95 / 0 10 50 20
ROY............................. 65 94 64 91 / 10 10 20 50
CONCHAS......................... 70 102 69 100 / 0 5 10 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 98 68 97 / 5 5 10 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 72 104 73 101 / 0 0 10 40
CLOVIS.......................... 69 102 71 100 / 0 0 0 40
PORTALES........................ 70 102 72 103 / 0 0 5 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 101 72 101 / 0 0 5 40
ROSWELL......................... 73 104 74 105 / 0 0 0 10
PICACHO......................... 67 97 69 98 / 5 5 0 20
ELK............................. 62 93 65 95 / 5 5 0 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24
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