849
FXUS65 KABQ 260539 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1118 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FROM SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
AT VARYING COVERAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES DERIVED WINDS SHOWS DEEP
MOISTURE DRAPED ACROSS NM WITH THE CENTER OF THE MONSOON HIGH NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS. THE 18Z KABQ PWAT WAS 1.32" (JUST BELOW THE DAILY
RECORD OF 1.39" FROM 1968) WITH SLOW STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING THRU THE AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL ELEVATE THE
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
RECENT HEAVY RAINS. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER RGV WESTWARD INTO THE WATCH THAT WAS ALREADY IN
EFFECT. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2"/HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS, ALONG WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL,
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEVERAL CAMS SHOW STORMS TAPERING
OFF TO SHOWERS THRU LATE EVENING AS AN MCV FEATURE ROLLS NORTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL NM.
STORM PLACEMENT SUNDAY IS STILL LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NM, HOWEVER THE COVERAGE IS MORE UNCERTAIN. THE MONSOON
HIGH WILL REFOCUS OVER NORTHEAST NM SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN TO NEAR
599DM. H5 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -3C OVER A LARGER AREA OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WITH H7 TEMPS BETWEEN +18 AND +22C. THE REMNANT MCV NEAR
WEST-CENTRAL NM MAY AMOUNT TO NO MORE THAN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD LIMIT COVERAGE FROM LESS INSTABILITY,
OR, DELAY STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. AREAS SURROUNDING THE CLOUD
SHIELD MAY ERUPT AGAIN BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS LONG AS UPDRAFTS
CAN OVERCOME VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THE 12Z NAM AND RRFS SHOW
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WESTWARD FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIER QPF SUNDAY,
INCLUDING THE RUIDOSO AREA. HOWEVER, THE HREF & REFS 6-HOUR LPMM
QPFS AND NBM90TH PERCENTILE QPF SHOW AN OVERALL DOWNTREND IN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL FOOTPRINTS SUNDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL CONFLICTING
FACTORS THAT DO NOT WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME SO LATEST
TRENDS IN 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE WILL BE HELPFUL TO IMPROVE CONFIDENCE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
MONDAY THRU FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A TYPICAL LATE JULY MONSOON PATTERN
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MIGRATING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NM TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEEK. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MOVE INTO NEARBY
LOWLANDS ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. HIGH PWATS AND SLOW STORM MOTION
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS >1.5". NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NM WILL BE FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN WITH DIFFERENCES IN
THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY VARYING FROM DAY TO DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. NEW STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS (NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KBRG). MEANWHILE, ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THEREAFTER.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
THOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SATURDAY, STORMS WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND IFR VSBYS AS WELL AS
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR WESTERN NM, BUT
AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. PATCHY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE REGION MAY STILL LEAD TO NEW
FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES. A TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL
FOCUS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN THRU LATE NEXT WEEK. STORMS WILL
FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN EACH DAY THEN MOVE ERRATICALLY INTO
NEARBY LOWLANDS THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL FOOTPRINTS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2" MAY CREATE FLASH FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 99 67 98 / 20 10 20 5
DULCE........................... 55 95 55 93 / 30 60 40 30
CUBA............................ 61 92 61 91 / 40 30 30 10
GALLUP.......................... 60 91 61 92 / 40 40 30 10
EL MORRO........................ 59 87 59 89 / 50 50 30 20
GRANTS.......................... 61 91 61 92 / 50 40 30 10
QUEMADO......................... 60 87 60 89 / 50 60 40 10
MAGDALENA....................... 67 89 66 92 / 30 40 20 20
DATIL........................... 62 85 61 88 / 30 50 30 30
RESERVE......................... 60 93 60 93 / 30 50 20 30
GLENWOOD........................ 64 98 64 97 / 20 30 20 30
CHAMA........................... 54 87 54 87 / 20 70 40 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 67 91 68 91 / 10 30 40 40
PECOS........................... 60 91 62 91 / 20 20 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 61 90 60 89 / 10 50 40 40
RED RIVER....................... 53 81 53 80 / 10 60 40 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 50 86 51 85 / 10 50 30 50
TAOS............................ 59 93 60 93 / 10 30 30 30
MORA............................ 58 90 59 89 / 20 30 30 40
ESPANOLA........................ 67 99 68 97 / 10 20 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 66 92 67 92 / 20 20 30 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 95 65 96 / 20 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 71 98 71 98 / 20 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 97 68 99 / 20 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 100 68 101 / 20 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 99 71 99 / 20 20 20 5
BELEN........................... 68 100 68 101 / 20 20 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 69 100 70 100 / 20 20 20 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 66 99 67 101 / 20 20 20 0
CORRALES........................ 69 100 70 100 / 20 20 20 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 68 100 69 101 / 20 20 20 0
PLACITAS........................ 69 96 70 97 / 20 20 30 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 99 70 99 / 20 20 20 5
SOCORRO......................... 73 101 73 102 / 20 20 20 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 91 65 92 / 30 20 30 10
TIJERAS......................... 65 92 65 94 / 20 20 30 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 94 62 95 / 20 20 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 95 59 97 / 20 20 20 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 90 61 93 / 20 20 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 93 62 94 / 20 20 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 91 64 94 / 20 20 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 94 70 97 / 20 20 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 64 87 64 89 / 20 40 20 20
CAPULIN......................... 60 94 61 94 / 5 20 30 30
RATON........................... 59 99 60 98 / 5 20 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 61 100 62 100 / 5 10 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 60 93 61 93 / 10 20 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 69 102 71 103 / 0 0 10 10
ROY............................. 65 96 66 97 / 5 5 10 5
CONCHAS......................... 70 103 71 106 / 5 0 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 99 67 103 / 5 0 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 72 103 73 106 / 5 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 69 101 69 103 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 70 102 71 104 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 101 71 104 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 74 102 73 106 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 68 97 68 100 / 5 10 10 5
ELK............................. 65 94 65 96 / 5 30 10 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...34
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