086
FXUS65 KABQ 261738 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1138 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FROM SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM TODAY.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
AT VARYING COVERAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 4AM OR SO, WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING THEREAFTER.
A TRICKY FORECAST IS ON TAP TODAY WITH REGARDS TO FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER NE NM TODAY BUT
WILL WEAKEN EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY TO 598-599DAM. MEANWHILE, THE WEAK
UPPER LOW/MCV THAT SLOWLY SHIFTED WESTWARD YESTERDAY, AND IS
LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SW,
WILL LOITER AROUND THE AZ/NM BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MCV
COULD EITHER 1. KEEP CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND TODAY LIMITING
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OR 2. IF CLOUDS CLEAR, COULD AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODELS SEEM TO FAVOR THE LATTER
SCENARIO. HOWEVER, ULTIMATELY, IT COMES BACK TO THE NEAR RECORD
BREAKING PWATS ACROSS THE AREA, THE SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS
AND THE VULNERABLE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RECENTLY IMPACTED OR HAVE
LOWER TOLERANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUCH AS THE SACATON BURN
SCAR. THUS, HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL NM FROM NOON TO 9PM MDT. ADDITIONALLY, STRONGLY
CONSIDERED ADDING THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AROUND RUIDOSO INTO THE
FLOOD WATCH, BUT THERE ARE A FEW MORE CONS IN THIS REGION. 1. IT
IS FURTHER WAY FROM THE ASCENT DUE TO THE MCV, 2. DRIER AIR IS
PUSHING INTO EASTERN NM AND 3. IT LOOKS MORE STABLE IN THIS AREA
OVERALL. NONETHELESS, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL CAMS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND THE REFS LPMM IS
ESPECIALLY CONCERNING WITH OVER 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SALT BURN SCAR THIS AFTERNOON. THESE AMOUNTS SEEM TO BE AN
OUTLIER, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST LIGHT RAINFALL
OVER THE SCARS AND THE NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THE
NEED FOR A SHORT-FUSED WATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE QUITE TOASTY TODAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM. IT LOOKS LIKE ALL AREAS WILL
REMAIN SHY OF NEEDING A HEAT ADVISORY TODAY, BUT A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED AROUND ROSWELL, TUCUMCARI AND PERHAPS ABQ FOR
MONDAY.
ALSO ON MONDAY, THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS TO AROUND 597 DAM OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NM. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MCV SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE
FARTHER INTO AZ, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT IT'S INFLUENCE ON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NM. PWATS SHOULD ALSO LOWER SLIGHTLY
(THOUGH STILL AROUND AN INCH OR JUST ABOVE). NONETHELESS, ANOTHER
CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWN A LITTLE BIT MORE. IT
DOES SEEM LIKE MORE STORMS WILL ROLL OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS (LIKELY DUE TO OUTFLOWS) INTO NE NM THAN WHAT WILL OCCUR
TODAY. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS, BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON WHAT OCCURS TODAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER NM BUT
MAY WEAKEN ANOTHER DECAMETER. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
STORMS, IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST NM WILL
BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THAT BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD WITH THE CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD LOOSE ITS IDENTITY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER NM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND RE-
STRENGTHEN TO 599-600DAM NEAR OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE
INTO NE NM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY OR PERHAPS A
DIFFERENT ONE MAY ALSO BE IN PLAY FOR SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM.
ALL-IN-ALL, TYPICAL MONSOON HAZARD ARE IN PLAY THROUGH THE WEEK
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SHRA/TS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN
THRU 3PM THEN MOVE ERRATICALLY INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS THRU THIS
EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN RECENT DAYS BUT DIRECT
HITS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LINGERING MID LEVEL CIGS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK OR MORE. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MEANDERING OVER NM FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC. STORMS WILL FAVOR
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVE OVER NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WITH
THE AID OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LIGHTNING MAY STILL CAUSE NEW FIRE
STARTS WHERE POCKETS OF DRY FUEL STILL EXIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 98 68 98 68 / 5 30 5 5
DULCE........................... 95 55 95 55 / 50 30 20 10
CUBA............................ 91 61 92 62 / 40 20 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 91 61 91 61 / 30 20 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 87 59 87 59 / 50 20 20 20
GRANTS.......................... 91 62 92 63 / 40 20 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 87 61 88 61 / 50 20 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 89 66 91 68 / 40 10 20 20
DATIL........................... 85 62 87 64 / 60 20 20 30
RESERVE......................... 93 59 94 60 / 50 20 40 20
GLENWOOD........................ 98 63 98 64 / 40 20 30 20
CHAMA........................... 87 54 87 54 / 50 20 40 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 91 68 93 69 / 40 30 30 20
PECOS........................... 91 62 93 63 / 20 10 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 90 60 90 60 / 50 40 40 30
RED RIVER....................... 85 48 85 49 / 60 40 50 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 86 52 86 52 / 40 30 40 30
TAOS............................ 93 60 93 60 / 30 30 20 30
MORA............................ 90 59 91 60 / 20 20 30 30
ESPANOLA........................ 99 68 100 68 / 10 30 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 92 67 93 68 / 20 10 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 95 65 97 66 / 10 10 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 98 72 100 72 / 5 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 98 71 100 71 / 5 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 100 68 103 69 / 0 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 99 71 101 72 / 0 10 5 10
BELEN........................... 100 69 102 70 / 0 10 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 100 71 102 72 / 0 10 5 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 99 67 102 68 / 0 10 5 10
CORRALES........................ 100 71 103 72 / 0 10 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 100 69 102 70 / 0 10 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 96 70 98 71 / 10 10 5 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 99 70 101 71 / 0 10 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 101 73 103 75 / 10 5 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 91 66 94 68 / 20 10 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 94 64 97 65 / 20 10 5 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 95 61 98 63 / 20 10 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 95 59 97 60 / 20 5 10 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 90 62 92 62 / 20 5 20 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 94 61 96 62 / 20 5 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 91 64 94 65 / 20 0 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 94 70 97 71 / 10 5 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 87 65 90 66 / 30 5 30 5
CAPULIN......................... 94 61 94 60 / 10 10 20 40
RATON........................... 99 60 100 61 / 5 20 20 40
SPRINGER........................ 100 62 101 62 / 0 10 10 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 94 61 96 63 / 10 10 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 102 70 103 69 / 0 5 0 20
ROY............................. 96 66 98 66 / 0 10 5 20
CONCHAS......................... 103 71 106 70 / 0 10 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 99 68 102 68 / 0 5 0 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 103 73 106 72 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 101 70 105 70 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 102 71 105 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 101 71 104 71 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 102 74 106 74 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 97 69 101 70 / 10 0 5 5
ELK............................. 94 65 98 67 / 20 5 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NMZ217-219-221-
228-231-232-234>238.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ205-206-208.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...42
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