670
FXUS65 KABQ 311753 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1153 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NEW MEXICO TODAY, RETREATING TO NORTHWEST AND FAR WEST CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE EXPANDING BACK EAST MONDAY.
- A HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SATURDAY. STORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
- STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ABQ AND SANTA FE
METRO THIS EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN
DIFFICULT CROSSWINDS ON NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED ROADS AND
HIGHLANDS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MONSOON HIGH OVER CENTRAL NM
AT A 500MB HEIGHT OF 598DAM. THE MONSOON HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST TO OVER AZ AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO 600DAM AT 500MB.
MORE HEAT IS FORECAST TODAY AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU, MIDDLE AND LOWER RGV AND THE CHAVES COUNTY
PLAINS. A BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PROGRESS TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY, REPLENISHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SPARKING A MORE ROBUST ROUND OF CONVECTION RELATIVE TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WEST INTO AZ, NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM AND
COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO BOOST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR TO
30-35KTS, WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORMS. THE SPC HAS
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLING ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL HELP NUDGE THE FRONT WEST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN A GUSTY EAST
CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS
THAT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE TRANSPORTED WEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING TO NEAR THE AZ BORDER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE
DAY WITH EVEN GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS
NORTHERLY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES BY ANOTHER 5-10KTS
RELATIVE TO FRIDAY. THE SPC HAS A SIZABLE MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NM AND INCLUDES THE RGV. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING IN RUIDOSO BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY, BUT
SATURDAY'S RISK IS A TOUCH HIGHER GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WET GROUNDS
FROM TODAY'S RAINFALL AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH WILL WEAKEN SOME SUN/MON AND A DOWNTICK IN
DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED STORMS IS FORECAST AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
ROTATES AROUND THE HIGH CIRCULATION OVER NM AND PWATS DECLINE.
HEAT RISK WILL TREND BACK UP MONDAY FOR A NUMBER OF LOWER
ELEVATION LOCALES AND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED, WITH POTENTIAL
EXTENSION INTO TUESDAY. THE MONSOON HIGH WILL REMAIN WEAKENED AND
WOBBLE ABOUT THE REGION FROM MID THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH RENEWED
ROUNDS OF DAILY STORMS FAVORING NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND GILA MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS AND LOWER RGV THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH
ALL STORMS IN THE AIRSPACE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN NM DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING
OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL PRODUCE A STRONG EAST CANYON WIND
AT KSAF AND ESPECIALLY KABQ MID TO LATE THIS EVENING LASTING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ABQ SUNPORT FROM 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING TO 3
AM MDT SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING CONTINUED
HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY, THEN AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN
NM TODAY, LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
SURGE WEST TO NEAR THE AZ BORDER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR WETTING STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL IMPROVE AND
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT. CHANCES FOR
WETTING STORMS WILL DECREASE SUN/MON, THEN RAMP BACK UP GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS SOME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 102 67 100 67 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 96 55 93 52 / 5 0 20 10
CUBA............................ 94 59 90 57 / 5 0 20 10
GALLUP.......................... 97 60 98 59 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 92 59 92 57 / 5 10 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 96 62 94 59 / 0 5 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 93 61 93 61 / 10 20 10 5
MAGDALENA....................... 95 64 91 62 / 20 30 20 20
DATIL........................... 91 61 89 58 / 30 30 30 20
RESERVE......................... 97 61 95 60 / 50 10 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 102 66 97 63 / 30 20 30 20
CHAMA........................... 89 52 82 50 / 10 10 50 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 91 62 84 60 / 20 10 50 10
PECOS........................... 90 57 82 54 / 60 20 80 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 88 55 83 54 / 40 50 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 78 46 72 45 / 70 70 50 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 81 39 77 36 / 90 70 80 10
TAOS............................ 92 54 87 51 / 40 50 40 10
MORA............................ 83 52 79 50 / 80 80 80 10
ESPANOLA........................ 97 62 91 59 / 10 20 40 10
SANTA FE........................ 92 61 86 60 / 30 10 60 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 97 60 90 58 / 20 10 60 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 100 67 94 65 / 10 10 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 100 66 96 64 / 5 20 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 102 66 97 64 / 5 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 102 68 96 66 / 5 10 20 10
BELEN........................... 104 65 98 63 / 5 30 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 102 66 96 64 / 5 10 30 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 102 63 97 61 / 5 20 20 20
CORRALES........................ 103 67 96 65 / 5 10 30 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 102 65 97 63 / 5 20 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 100 65 93 63 / 10 10 40 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 102 67 95 65 / 5 10 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 105 70 98 67 / 10 30 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 94 59 87 57 / 20 20 50 10
TIJERAS......................... 97 61 90 59 / 20 20 50 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 96 57 89 54 / 30 20 60 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 97 55 90 52 / 40 20 70 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 91 57 83 55 / 60 20 60 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 96 57 89 56 / 30 50 50 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 95 59 90 57 / 40 50 60 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 100 65 91 62 / 40 50 70 60
RUIDOSO......................... 88 59 81 56 / 60 60 80 60
CAPULIN......................... 83 53 82 52 / 80 80 50 10
RATON........................... 87 53 88 52 / 90 80 60 10
SPRINGER........................ 90 54 89 53 / 90 70 50 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 88 55 82 53 / 80 60 80 10
CLAYTON......................... 92 62 90 60 / 30 30 30 20
ROY............................. 88 58 85 56 / 90 60 50 20
CONCHAS......................... 98 63 93 61 / 70 70 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 97 62 90 60 / 60 60 40 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 98 64 94 61 / 40 80 40 30
CLOVIS.......................... 101 65 92 63 / 30 80 40 30
PORTALES........................ 102 66 92 63 / 20 80 30 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 102 66 92 63 / 30 70 40 40
ROSWELL......................... 105 71 95 68 / 5 40 20 60
PICACHO......................... 97 65 89 62 / 30 40 40 60
ELK............................. 94 62 85 59 / 50 30 60 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-219-220-238.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ201-205.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
NMZ219.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...71
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