550
FXUS65 KABQ 011750 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1150 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING,.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND BACK INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.
- MUCH LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING
BEGINNING TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS CURRENTLY RACING WEST NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND HAS RESULTED IN A STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE
RGV. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT FOR THE MIDDLE
RGV AND THE HIGHEST GUST SO FAR AT THE ALBUQUERQUE SUNPORT HAS
BEEN 53MPH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY, WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NM. INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT,
COUPLED WITH VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
INCREASE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR TO 35-40KTS AND BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ROLLING SOUTH OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SPC HAS INCLUDED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
MAINLY DUE TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING
IN/NEAR RUIDOSO DUE TO BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AND
ELEVATED RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON
UNTIL MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION LASTING WELL PAST SUNSET. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM AND A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL PLATEAUS.
THE STRONG MONSOON HIGH OVER AZ IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY,
FROM 600DAM TO 596DAM AT 500MB AS DRIER AIR ALOFT ROTATES AROUND
THE CIRCULATION OVER NM AND PWATS BEGIN TO DECLINE. THIS WILL
BRING A DOWNTICK IN DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION, WITH A
CONTINUED MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER GOING INTO MONDAY DOWN TO
NEAR 594DAM AT 500MB, WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTROID SHIFTING EAST
INTO WEST CENTRAL NM. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL NM,
EXPANDING THE MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK EAST INTO THE ABQ
METRO. PWATS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNTREND MONDAY, LEADING TO A
MORE PALTRY ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT WILL FAVOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG/ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS. MORE OF THE SAME ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLOW UPTREND IN
PWATS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING IMPROVED CHANCES FOR
STORMS AS THE MONSOON HIGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD WITH REGARD THE THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE MONSOON HIGH BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
LEADING LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MID THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STORMS LOOK
TO STAY JUST EAST OF KSAF AND KABQ, BUT WILL BRING A GUSTY
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CANYON WIND TO THESE 2 TERMINALS EARLY TO MID
THIS EVENING. VERY HOT AND DRY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL CONGEAL INTO A LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH KROW THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS TAPER OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN NM LATE THIS
EVENING AT AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING CONTINUED
HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NM TODAY,
THEN EXPAND BACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NM GOING THROUGH EARLY
WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT AND WILL
RECHARGE MOISTURE, BRINGING AN UPTICK IN WETTING STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL IMPROVE AND BE GOOD
TO EXCELLENT BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANCES
FOR WETTING STORMS WILL DECREASE SUN/MON, THEN SLOWLY RAMP BACK UP
FROM MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS SOME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 101 68 102 66 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 96 54 97 54 / 20 10 0 0
CUBA............................ 92 59 94 60 / 30 5 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 98 61 98 63 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 94 58 94 59 / 10 0 10 5
GRANTS.......................... 96 60 96 62 / 5 5 10 5
QUEMADO......................... 94 62 92 62 / 10 10 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 91 63 90 65 / 20 20 20 5
DATIL........................... 91 59 87 60 / 20 10 20 10
RESERVE......................... 96 61 94 59 / 40 20 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 100 64 97 64 / 40 20 50 20
CHAMA........................... 88 52 89 54 / 50 10 10 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 88 61 90 64 / 40 5 10 5
PECOS........................... 86 55 90 58 / 70 20 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 55 91 59 / 30 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 76 46 81 49 / 40 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 38 84 44 / 70 5 10 5
TAOS............................ 88 53 93 57 / 30 5 0 0
MORA............................ 83 51 89 55 / 70 5 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 95 60 97 63 / 20 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 89 61 91 64 / 40 20 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 59 93 62 / 30 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 97 66 97 70 / 20 10 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 98 65 98 69 / 20 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 100 65 100 69 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 99 67 99 70 / 20 5 0 5
BELEN........................... 100 64 101 67 / 5 20 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 99 65 99 68 / 20 5 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 99 63 100 67 / 10 20 0 0
CORRALES........................ 100 66 100 70 / 20 5 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 100 64 100 68 / 5 20 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 94 64 95 67 / 30 10 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 99 66 99 70 / 20 5 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 101 68 101 70 / 10 30 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 91 58 92 63 / 30 10 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 91 60 92 65 / 30 10 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 92 55 93 60 / 50 20 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 93 52 94 57 / 50 20 10 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 86 55 89 61 / 60 30 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 93 56 93 62 / 40 30 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 90 57 90 61 / 50 40 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 92 62 91 66 / 60 50 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 84 57 84 60 / 70 60 10 5
CAPULIN......................... 82 52 88 58 / 40 5 0 0
RATON........................... 86 52 94 56 / 40 5 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 87 53 96 55 / 60 5 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 84 53 91 56 / 80 10 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 89 60 95 66 / 40 10 0 0
ROY............................. 85 56 91 61 / 60 20 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 93 62 100 67 / 40 30 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 60 95 64 / 50 20 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 92 62 100 67 / 30 40 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 91 63 96 67 / 20 50 0 0
PORTALES........................ 91 64 97 68 / 20 50 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 92 63 96 67 / 30 50 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 97 68 100 70 / 20 50 0 0
PICACHO......................... 92 62 94 65 / 50 50 5 0
ELK............................. 89 59 90 62 / 60 40 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-205.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ201-205.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...71
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