396
FXUS65 KABQ 021718
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1118 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. RECORD HEAT LIKELY ON
MONDAY IN MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TUESDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH OVER AZ IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FROM 599DAM AT
500MB DOWN TO 595DAM THROUGH MONDAY AND GET STRETCHED FROM EAST TO
EAST OVER NM, ALLOWING DRIER WESTERLIES TO PENETRATE INTO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. THIS TREND WILL BRING A DOWNTREND IN COVERAGE
OF DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION AND THE DRIER AIR WILL
ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES, EXPANDING A MODERATE
TO MAJOR EAST RISK EAST ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE LOWER PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL PLATEAUS TODAY, BUT A MORE EXPANSIVE ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MONDAY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE RGV AND
EASTERN PLAINS. WITH THE UNUSUAL HEAT AND LOWER PWATS FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY, STORMS WILL FAVOR STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER
RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND HAVE A HARDER TIME SURVIVING MOVING OFF
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE ONE EXCEPT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE A HIGHER PWAT ATMOSPHERE WILL
LINGER AND MORE ROBUST STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TUESDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING ADDED FORCING AND MOISTURE TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY, LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION
THAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE ACROSS WESTERN NM, A MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE MIDDLE RGV AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU.
THE MONSOON HIGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH TO OVER NV/UT AND
STRENGTHEN FROM WED INTO THE WEEKEND, TAKING THE EDGE OFF OF THE
HEAT ACROSS NM BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFUSION. DAILY
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE FORECAST, BUT WITH LOWER COVERAGE AND
LOWER PWATS THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT FOR EARLY AUGUST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO MAY PRODUCE A FEW GUSTY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE LOW. STORMS WILL MOVE
OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE MONSOON HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE
HEAT WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY STEPPING DOWN FROM MID THROUGH
LATE WEEK. CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL TREND DOWN TODAY AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY TREND BACK UP FROM MID THROUGH LATE WEEK, BUT
STILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST. NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE DRIEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH POOR
TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCES FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 100 65 101 64 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 97 56 96 56 / 10 10 5 0
CUBA............................ 94 61 95 61 / 10 10 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 97 60 97 60 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 91 58 92 58 / 10 5 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 95 61 96 61 / 10 5 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 93 62 93 61 / 10 5 5 20
MAGDALENA....................... 90 66 93 65 / 10 5 10 10
DATIL........................... 87 59 90 60 / 30 20 20 20
RESERVE......................... 95 60 97 60 / 40 10 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 98 63 100 64 / 60 30 40 20
CHAMA........................... 90 55 90 55 / 20 10 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 90 66 92 66 / 20 10 20 0
PECOS........................... 90 59 95 60 / 10 10 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 91 57 92 56 / 10 10 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 82 50 83 50 / 10 10 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 84 43 87 42 / 20 10 10 10
TAOS............................ 93 60 95 60 / 10 10 10 5
MORA............................ 89 56 93 56 / 20 10 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 98 67 100 67 / 10 10 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 92 62 95 62 / 10 10 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 94 63 97 63 / 10 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 96 69 101 69 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 98 72 101 72 / 10 10 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 100 70 104 70 / 10 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 70 103 71 / 10 5 0 0
BELEN........................... 99 69 104 69 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 99 69 104 69 / 10 10 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 98 67 103 67 / 5 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 100 69 104 70 / 10 10 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 98 66 103 66 / 5 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 95 68 100 69 / 10 10 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 99 70 103 71 / 10 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 100 73 104 73 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 64 95 65 / 10 10 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 94 65 97 65 / 10 10 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 94 63 98 63 / 10 10 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 95 57 99 58 / 20 10 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 62 95 63 / 20 20 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 92 64 97 64 / 20 5 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 89 63 94 63 / 10 5 5 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 91 69 95 70 / 5 0 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 84 62 87 63 / 20 0 20 0
CAPULIN......................... 88 60 93 59 / 20 10 30 20
RATON........................... 92 56 97 57 / 10 10 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 95 57 99 58 / 10 10 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 58 95 58 / 20 10 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 94 66 100 67 / 5 0 10 20
ROY............................. 91 64 98 65 / 10 10 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 99 70 104 71 / 10 10 5 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 68 102 68 / 10 10 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 98 69 105 71 / 0 5 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 96 67 100 69 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 97 68 101 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 96 70 102 72 / 0 5 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 99 71 105 72 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 95 67 98 68 / 10 0 20 5
ELK............................. 91 63 93 63 / 20 0 20 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-205.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NMZ201-205-207-
211-212-217>221.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...16
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