962
FXUS65 KABQ 031740 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. RECORD HEAT IS LIKELY TODAY
AND TOMORROW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN UTAH AND COLORADO MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT
ARE QUALITY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY, DOWN TO NEAR
594DAM AT 500MB ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL GET
STEERED FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NM AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
CIRCULATION, BRINGING LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES AND AN
INCREASED HEAT RISK DESPITE THE LOWER PRESSURE HEIGHTS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A NUMBER OF LOWER ELEVATION ZONES AND
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE QUAY AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES,
WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 105 DEGREES TODAY. TODAY'S CROP
OF DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS, WITH MORE ROBUST STORMS FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WHERE PWATS ARE HIGHER. STORMS ELSEWHERE WILL FAVOR
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER WETTING (>0.10") RAINFALL. THAT
WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT REPLENISHES MOISTURE
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LEADS TO AN UPTICK IN STORM
COVERAGE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30-35KTS
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON TUESDAY AND
THE SPC HAS INCLUDED THAT AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE, NORTHWEST NM
WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY, WITH MORE MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL PLATEAUS. LASTLY, SMOKE FROM UT/CO
WILDFIRES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BE STEERED SOUTHEAST INTO NM ON
TUESDAY, CREATING AIR QUALITY IMPACTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
SIMILAR SETUP WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH LESS SHEAR AND A LOWER RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DUE TO HIGHER PWATS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTION. A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. SMOKE
IMPACTS FROM UT/CO WILDFIRES WILL LIKELY PERSIST, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. THE MONSOON HIGH IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO OVER NV/UT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, BUT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHWEST NM AND KEEP
CONDITIONS HOT AND DRY THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN FARMINGTON ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 100 DEGREES OR GREATER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY,
MAKING THIS THE LONGEST STREAK OF 100+ DEGREE DAYS IN FARMINGTON
EVER IN THE MONTH OF AUGUST (PREVIOUSLY 3 DAYS). ELSEWHERE, ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR
EARLY AUGUST ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE GILA MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NM, INCLUDING KRTN AND KCAO,
THIS AFTERNOON. DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS FOR SOME PILOTS DUE TO
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S. ANY STORM
ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF MID THIS EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE MONSOON HIGH MOVES AROUND THE REGION,
BRINGING A COMBINATION OF HEAT AND CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS.
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY AND IMPROVED CHANCES
FOR WETTING STORMS TO CENTRAL NM ON TUESDAY. HOTTER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST NM,
WHILE CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WILL GENERALLY BE POOR TO FAIR NORTHWEST AND FAIR TO GOOD
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 103 65 102 64 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 97 55 96 54 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 97 62 94 60 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 99 61 98 59 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 94 58 93 58 / 5 5 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 98 62 97 60 / 0 5 5 10
QUEMADO......................... 94 61 94 61 / 0 20 5 30
MAGDALENA....................... 96 66 95 65 / 5 10 20 50
DATIL........................... 92 61 92 59 / 10 20 40 30
RESERVE......................... 95 61 96 59 / 20 20 30 30
GLENWOOD........................ 94 64 96 63 / 40 20 40 30
CHAMA........................... 90 55 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 94 66 90 64 / 10 0 30 20
PECOS........................... 95 60 87 59 / 0 5 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 93 57 88 56 / 5 0 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 82 50 77 48 / 5 5 40 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 88 44 82 42 / 5 5 60 30
TAOS............................ 96 59 92 56 / 0 0 20 20
MORA............................ 92 57 82 54 / 0 0 50 20
ESPANOLA........................ 101 66 96 64 / 5 0 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 96 64 92 63 / 5 0 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 100 63 95 62 / 5 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 102 72 99 69 / 0 5 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 103 74 100 71 / 0 10 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 105 71 102 68 / 0 10 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 104 72 101 70 / 0 5 10 30
BELEN........................... 105 69 102 67 / 0 10 10 30
BERNALILLO...................... 105 70 102 68 / 0 5 10 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 105 68 102 66 / 0 10 10 40
CORRALES........................ 105 71 102 69 / 0 5 10 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 105 68 102 66 / 0 10 10 30
PLACITAS........................ 103 70 99 67 / 0 5 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 104 71 101 69 / 0 5 10 30
SOCORRO......................... 105 73 102 72 / 0 5 5 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 98 65 93 62 / 0 5 30 40
TIJERAS......................... 99 66 95 63 / 0 10 30 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 99 63 93 61 / 0 10 30 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 100 60 93 57 / 0 10 10 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 95 64 89 61 / 0 10 0 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 98 64 93 61 / 0 10 20 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 96 64 93 62 / 0 10 20 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 95 70 95 67 / 0 5 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 88 64 87 60 / 20 5 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 95 58 81 56 / 20 10 20 30
RATON........................... 100 58 86 54 / 10 10 50 40
SPRINGER........................ 103 60 90 56 / 10 10 40 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 96 59 86 57 / 10 5 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 101 66 85 63 / 5 20 0 10
ROY............................. 99 64 88 62 / 10 20 0 20
CONCHAS......................... 107 71 97 68 / 5 20 0 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 104 68 96 67 / 10 20 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 105 71 99 69 / 0 10 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 100 69 99 68 / 0 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 101 70 99 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 102 71 99 70 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 104 72 102 71 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 100 68 97 66 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 95 64 93 61 / 10 0 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-204-205-207-
211-212-217>222-228-231>234.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NMZ201-205-207-
219.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...71
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