368
FXUS65 KABQ 032017
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
217 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 217 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. RECORD HEAT IS LIKELY TODAY
AND TOMORROW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN UTAH, NEVADA, AND COLORADO MAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT ARE QUALITY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
A 594 TO 595 DAM 500 MB UPPER HIGH HAS FLATTENED OVER MUCH OF THE
DESERT SW. GENERALLY DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PWATS AROUND
0.5 TO 0.9 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE SURFACE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE HEAT TO BE THE MAIN STORY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TIME AUGUST
RECORDS WILL BE THREATENED OR BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
(102 AT THE ABQ SUNPORT AND FARMINGTON FOUR CORNERS, 100 AT RATON
CREWS, 99 AT SANTA FE, AND 98 AT GALLUP). HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST, CENTRAL AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST NM UNTIL 8 PM
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED
TO GILA MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NM THROUGH MID THIS EVENING.
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS
THIS EVENING WILL SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST NM AND
EAST CENTRAL NM TUESDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH ALONG
WITH SOME PATCHY SMOKE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NM BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL HELP TO COOL DOWN
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, AND EAST CENTRAL NM. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 0.8 TO 1.2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS, OUTSIDE OF
0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST NM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A LINE FROM NORTHEAST
NM DOWN TO SOUTHWEST NM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DUE TO BETTER
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST, WEST CENTRAL AND THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
RGV WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. FOR THAT
REASON, HEAT ADVISORIES HAS BEEN ISSUED ONCE AGAIN FOR FARMINGTON,
GALLUP, GRANTS AND ALBUQUERQUE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA AND
MANZANO MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO RESULT IN A BETTER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ABQ METRO TUESDAY EVENING. ANY STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE 594 TO 595 DAM 500 MB HIGH OVER NM AND AZ TUESDAY LOOKS TO
REINTENSIFY TO 598 TO 599 DAM AND EXPAND NORTHWEST TO THE GREAT
BASIN BY THURSDAY BEFORE PIVOTING BACK TO OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND
WEAKENING TO AROUND 596-598 DAM THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT BE AS HOT AS TODAY, BUT STILL HOTTER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST WITH MID 90S TO LOW 100S COMMON ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO MAINLY WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE GILA MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NM, INCLUDING KRTN AND KCAO,
THIS AFTERNOON. DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS FOR SOME PILOTS DUE TO
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S. ANY STORM
ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF MID THIS EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY
AND HOT TODAY. WIDESPREAD DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS WILL BE THREATENED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE GILA MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON.
COOLER TO NOT AS HOT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM TOMORROW
BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT WITH A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM A LINE ALONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NM. HOT
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
TO MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 102 64 101 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 55 96 54 95 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 62 94 60 94 / 0 0 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 61 98 59 97 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 58 93 58 92 / 5 5 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 62 97 60 96 / 5 5 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 61 94 61 93 / 20 5 30 20
MAGDALENA....................... 66 95 65 94 / 10 20 50 40
DATIL........................... 61 92 59 91 / 20 40 30 50
RESERVE......................... 61 96 59 94 / 20 30 30 50
GLENWOOD........................ 64 96 63 92 / 20 40 30 50
CHAMA........................... 55 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 66 90 64 91 / 0 30 20 30
PECOS........................... 60 87 59 91 / 5 30 20 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 88 56 89 / 0 20 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 50 77 48 78 / 5 40 30 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 82 42 84 / 5 60 30 20
TAOS............................ 59 92 56 93 / 0 20 20 5
MORA............................ 57 82 54 87 / 0 50 20 30
ESPANOLA........................ 66 96 64 98 / 0 30 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 64 92 63 93 / 0 30 20 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 63 95 62 96 / 5 20 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 72 99 69 99 / 5 20 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 74 100 71 100 / 10 10 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 71 102 68 102 / 10 10 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 72 101 70 101 / 5 10 30 0
BELEN........................... 69 102 67 102 / 10 10 30 0
BERNALILLO...................... 70 102 68 102 / 5 10 30 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 68 102 66 102 / 10 10 40 0
CORRALES........................ 71 102 69 102 / 5 10 30 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 68 102 66 102 / 10 10 30 0
PLACITAS........................ 70 99 67 99 / 5 20 30 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 71 101 69 101 / 5 10 30 0
SOCORRO......................... 73 102 72 101 / 5 5 40 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 65 93 62 94 / 5 30 40 5
TIJERAS......................... 66 95 63 96 / 10 30 50 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 63 93 61 96 / 10 30 40 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 60 93 57 96 / 10 10 40 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 64 89 61 91 / 10 0 30 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 64 93 61 94 / 10 20 40 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 93 62 93 / 10 20 40 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 70 95 67 93 / 5 10 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 64 87 60 86 / 5 20 10 30
CAPULIN......................... 58 81 56 88 / 10 20 30 50
RATON........................... 58 86 54 92 / 10 50 40 30
SPRINGER........................ 60 90 56 95 / 10 40 40 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 86 57 92 / 5 20 20 30
CLAYTON......................... 66 85 63 92 / 20 0 10 20
ROY............................. 64 88 62 92 / 20 0 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 71 97 68 100 / 20 0 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 96 67 98 / 20 0 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 99 69 101 / 10 0 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 69 99 68 99 / 0 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 70 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 71 99 70 99 / 0 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 72 102 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 68 97 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 64 93 61 92 / 0 5 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-204-205-207-
211-212-217>222-228-231>234.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NMZ201-205-207-
219.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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