226
FXUS65 KABQ 050533 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1132 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SEVERAL DAYS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN UTAH, NEVADA, AND COLORADO MAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE EXTREME HEAT AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RESULTING IN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN A FEW PLACES. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK
MAINLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INCLUDING ABQ METRO AND THEN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE
SITUATED OVER AZ/NM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SUPPORTING EXTREME
HEAT. THERE ARE EVENT MUCH COOLER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS THAT ARE
OBSERVING UNUSUALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT BUT NOT QUITE
GETTING TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OR A NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF OVERLAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY, LIFT AND SHEAR CONTINUE TO BE OVER NE NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. SPC MAINTAINS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THIS AREA AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVE ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. STORM MODES
WILL LIKELY BE PULSE SINGLE CELLS TO CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT
PRODUCE DOWNBURST WINDS. MORE INTENSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW
QUARTER SIZED HAIL STONES BUT LAPSE RATES ARE WELL...THERE HAVE
BEEN BETTER LAPSE RATES. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CERTAINLY BOOST
THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES 1200-1400 J/KG. TOMORROW LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE SAME AREAS OUTLOOKED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SUBTLE SHIFTS AND WOBBLES WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE MAY BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
GREAT BASE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WOULD COULD ALLOW FOR MORE
CONVECTION ASSUMING THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUE MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SO
ANY RELIEF FROM THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF ANY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE DOES WEAKEN AND PERHAPS ALLOW FOR A
BETTER MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. ONLY PROBLEM
IS THAT THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE PLUME IS OVER AZ SO THE CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NM IS NOT AS GREAT AS WHAT THE MODELS
DEPICT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE MOISTURE COULD DEVELOP
EAST INTO NM BUT THESE KINDS OF SCENARIOS FOR A WET MONSOON
PATTERN TO DEVELOP JUST HAVE NOT PANNED OUT SO FAR THIS YEAR. BUT
WE REALLY NEED THIS TO PAN OUT BECAUSE A LOT OF AREAS STILL NEED
PRECIPITATION TO RECOVER FROM AN ABYSMAL WINTER/SPRING.
39
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SHRA AND TSRA REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NM AS OF 06Z AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BY 09Z. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
REMAIN AT A FEW CENTRAL NM TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS WANES. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LLWS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM, MAINLY FROM KTCC TO KSXU, THROUGH 12Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM,
MAINLY AFTER 18-19Z, OFF OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NM. A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST NM MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. SOME CENTRAL NM TAF SITES AND OTHER TERMINALS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SHOWERS SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
NORMALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THIS DISCUSSION WILL SAY SOMETHING
ALONG THE LINES OF NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS
BUT THE REALITY IS THAT THE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT SUCH LANGUAGE.
STARTING WITH FUEL MOISTURE WELL SIMPLY THERE IS A DECREASING
AMOUNT OF FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO A PUTRID MONSOON SEASON SO FAR.
MONSOON SEASON FOR PRECIPITATION IS ALWAYS HIT AND MISS AND IT'S
BEEN A LOT MORE MISS. ERC'S ARE GETTING UP INTO THE 80-90
PERCENTILES OF CLIMO FOR MANY AREAS IN NM EXCLUDING MAYBE THE GILA
FOREST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL LEVELS, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY EACH AFTERNOON
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT IN
MANY AREAS AND BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IF
WINDS EVER DID DECIDE TO INCREASE, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET
RAPID FIRE SPREAD FROM A LIGHTING IGNITION GIVEN THE STATE OF FUEL
MOISTURE AND LOW HUMIDITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 64 101 65 101 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 52 97 54 98 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 60 95 61 96 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 61 97 59 95 / 0 0 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 57 91 57 90 / 10 10 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 60 96 60 95 / 10 10 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 61 91 61 90 / 20 20 20 30
MAGDALENA....................... 65 91 65 91 / 30 30 10 30
DATIL........................... 60 88 60 87 / 20 50 20 50
RESERVE......................... 60 95 59 95 / 30 50 20 70
GLENWOOD........................ 63 99 63 99 / 20 50 20 70
CHAMA........................... 54 91 55 91 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 92 64 92 / 10 20 5 20
PECOS........................... 58 95 59 93 / 30 5 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 92 58 92 / 10 5 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 48 86 49 86 / 10 5 10 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 86 44 86 / 20 5 10 20
TAOS............................ 55 96 57 95 / 10 0 5 5
MORA............................ 53 91 55 90 / 20 10 10 30
ESPANOLA........................ 63 99 64 99 / 10 5 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 64 94 64 94 / 20 5 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 97 62 96 / 20 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 99 70 100 / 10 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 101 69 101 / 20 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 103 68 102 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 101 70 101 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 66 101 67 101 / 20 0 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 67 103 68 102 / 10 0 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 65 101 66 101 / 20 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 69 103 70 103 / 10 0 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 101 68 100 / 20 0 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 67 98 68 98 / 10 0 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 102 69 102 / 10 0 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 71 102 71 102 / 30 5 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 92 62 92 / 20 10 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 64 97 64 97 / 20 5 5 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 97 60 97 / 30 20 5 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 98 58 97 / 30 20 5 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 93 61 92 / 30 10 10 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 96 61 95 / 50 20 10 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 93 62 93 / 40 20 10 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 96 68 96 / 10 10 30 40
RUIDOSO......................... 61 88 62 88 / 5 50 20 70
CAPULIN......................... 55 89 56 89 / 40 40 30 30
RATON........................... 54 93 55 93 / 20 30 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 55 96 56 96 / 30 20 40 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 93 56 91 / 20 20 20 30
CLAYTON......................... 62 96 64 96 / 40 10 50 0
ROY............................. 61 93 61 92 / 30 10 50 20
CONCHAS......................... 68 101 68 100 / 20 5 30 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 96 66 95 / 20 10 20 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 101 69 100 / 10 0 10 5
CLOVIS.......................... 68 98 69 98 / 0 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 70 98 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 99 70 98 / 5 0 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 71 101 73 101 / 0 0 5 0
PICACHO......................... 66 96 67 96 / 0 5 10 10
ELK............................. 62 94 63 93 / 0 10 5 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ201-205-207-
219-221.
SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...77
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