404
FXUS65 KABQ 211808 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1208 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1148 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND SATURDAY WITH A RISK OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS,
AS WELL AS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS.
- SMOKE FROM THE FRIJOLES FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE THIS WEEK.
- MODERATE-TO-HIGH HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
A 598 DAM HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN CO TODAY WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM ON SATURDAY.
THIS POSITION WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, WHILE
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST BOTH DAYS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. STORM'S TODAY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND IN VARIABLE DIRECTIONS. ON SATURDAY, STORMS SHOULD
MOVE MOSTLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL VARY AROUND 5-11 DEGREES ABOVE
1991-2020 AVERAGES WITH NEAR-RECORD READINGS IN NUMEROUS
LOCATIONS. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES IS FORECAST
FOR TUCUMCARI ON SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD BEAT THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF
103 F SET IN 2024.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
MODELS DEPICT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT VARYING ITS
POSITION OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THEN SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST NM ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD, THE NUMBER OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK.
AFTER DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BACKDOOR
FRONTS WILL INCREASE GULF MOISTURE, CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TREND
DOWNWARD AND STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE (MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN) TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP NORTHEAST NM MONDAY, THEN MORE-SO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH CELLS INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND
WILL STRUGGLE TO FILL IN OVER THE NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT A
FEW STRAY CELLS WILL MANAGE, EVEN INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TEMPORARILY REDUCING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. STORMS WILL DWINDLE
AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING. LESS STORMS ARE
FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ACTIVITY MOSTLY STAYING CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SUB-15 PERCENT MINIMUM HUMIDITY IS FORECAST OVER NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICALLY
LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH EACH
DAY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE HUMIDITY IMPROVEMENT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE MANY WESTERN READINGS REMAIN CRITICALLY
LOW. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, WHICH WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD TODAY
AND SATURDAY NORTH AND WEST, THEN AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 96 65 94 65 / 10 30 10 20
DULCE........................... 93 54 91 52 / 50 30 40 20
CUBA............................ 89 59 89 59 / 20 30 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 91 58 90 57 / 50 30 40 20
EL MORRO........................ 85 56 85 56 / 40 30 50 30
GRANTS.......................... 90 59 89 58 / 40 30 50 20
QUEMADO......................... 86 60 86 58 / 50 20 50 20
MAGDALENA....................... 87 64 88 63 / 40 20 30 20
DATIL........................... 85 59 85 58 / 40 20 40 20
RESERVE......................... 93 59 93 57 / 30 20 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 97 64 98 63 / 20 10 30 20
CHAMA........................... 85 54 84 53 / 50 30 50 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 88 64 88 64 / 20 20 20 20
PECOS........................... 89 58 90 59 / 30 20 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 56 86 57 / 40 20 40 20
RED RIVER....................... 80 45 80 46 / 50 20 50 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 83 37 83 41 / 50 20 50 20
TAOS............................ 90 57 90 57 / 40 20 30 20
MORA............................ 85 55 87 55 / 30 20 30 20
ESPANOLA........................ 95 59 95 61 / 20 20 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 90 61 91 63 / 30 20 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 59 93 61 / 20 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 94 68 94 67 / 20 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 69 95 68 / 10 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 62 97 63 / 10 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 96 68 96 69 / 10 10 5 10
BELEN........................... 98 67 98 65 / 5 5 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 96 66 96 67 / 10 10 5 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 97 63 97 63 / 10 10 5 10
CORRALES........................ 97 66 97 67 / 10 10 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 97 64 97 64 / 5 10 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 93 66 93 65 / 20 10 5 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 96 68 96 68 / 10 10 5 20
SOCORRO......................... 99 71 99 70 / 20 10 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 89 63 89 63 / 30 10 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 90 64 91 64 / 20 20 5 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 89 61 90 60 / 30 20 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 92 57 93 57 / 20 20 5 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 61 90 61 / 20 20 5 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 90 62 91 61 / 20 20 5 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 89 62 90 61 / 20 20 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 94 67 94 66 / 20 10 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 87 54 87 58 / 60 10 30 10
CAPULIN......................... 89 59 89 58 / 20 20 30 30
RATON........................... 92 57 93 58 / 20 20 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 94 57 96 58 / 20 20 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 89 57 91 58 / 20 20 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 98 66 98 67 / 10 20 5 20
ROY............................. 93 62 95 64 / 20 20 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 100 68 102 70 / 20 20 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 96 66 98 67 / 20 20 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 100 69 102 71 / 20 20 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 98 70 99 70 / 20 20 5 5
PORTALES........................ 99 70 100 71 / 20 20 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 99 69 100 69 / 20 20 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 101 71 102 70 / 5 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 96 66 97 66 / 20 10 10 0
ELK............................. 91 63 92 62 / 20 10 20 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...52
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