414
FXUS65 KABQ 230916
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AND
MONDAY, THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
A RISK OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, AND
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.
- A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- SMOKE FROM THE FRIJOLES FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE THIS WEEK.
- MODERATE-TO-HIGH HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THEN
SPREAD TO WESTERN AREAS AS WELL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, AS RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN EACH
DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WITH A 597 DAM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE STATE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD THROUGH
MONDAY, WHEN READINGS WILL PEAK AROUND 5-13 DEGREES ABOVE
1991-2020 AVERAGES. RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST BOTH DAYS. THE NBM, WHICH DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB ON THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, PREDICTS A TEMPERATURE OF
105 F FOR ROSWELL ON MONDAY, WHICH IS THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR THE CHAVS COUNTY PLAINS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ISSUE THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF
REACHING THE CRITERIA THERE.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS TODAY AND MONDAY.
HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT SPOTTIER CELLS DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 60 LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL AREAS SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY, WHEN A SOMEWHAT MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CLIP THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. BULK SHEAR (0-6 KM) AROUND 25-40
KT AND CAPE UP TO 1800 J/KG SHOULD ENABLE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT THE CENTER OF THE ~597 DAM HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALOFT VARYING ITS POSITION AROUND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM
UNTIL WEDNESDAY, WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
NM/SOUTHEAST AZ BORDER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY, THEN OVER WESTERN AREAS AS
WELL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AFTER MOIST OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ON
THE EASTERN PLAINS PUSHES ITS WAY OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
GULF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE PWATS OVER EASTERN AREAS TO AROUND
1.10" ON TUESDAY, THEN AROUND 1.35" ON WEDNESDAY, ENABLING STORMS
TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF INDICATES A FEW PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS MAY ACCUMULATE NEARLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH LOCALLY OVER 1 INCH ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ON PARTS OF THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE INCREASED CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND THE
SOUTHWESTWARD MIGRATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT, WILL
ENABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS TO TREND DOWNWARD
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK; WHILE REMAINING A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES. MEANWHILE, RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST WITH EACH DAY AS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST NM BORDER DECREASES AND A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER NORTH TX. THE STORM TRACK WILL ALSO
BECOME LESS ACTIVE, ENABLING DRIER AND MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
NORTHERN NM. THIS WILL ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO TREND UPWARD AGAIN
ON THE EASTERN PLAINS STARTING THURSDAY, AND OVER WESTERN AREAS
AS WELL STARTING FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS, WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS CLOVIS, FORT SUMNER, CLINES CORNERS,
MORIARTY, AND RIO RANCHO. STORM MOTION ON SUNDAY SHOULD GENERALLY
BE TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 10-15 KT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MAKE DENSITY ALTITUDE AND IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR AVIATION
OPERATIONS NEAR COMPLEX TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD OVER
EAST CENTRAL AREAS AGAIN TODAY. SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES WILL
THEN SHIFT MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS ON MONDAY.
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS WELL WITH
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION EACH EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK; INCLUDING MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY
GAP WINDS BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. UNTIL
MODEST GULF MOISTURE PUSHES INTO WESTERN AREAS MID-WEEK, THE SIZE
OF WETTING FOOTPRINTS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL DECREASE WITH
EACH DAY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
THREAT OF NEW FIRE STARTS AS SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES REACH
NEAR-RECORD READINGS. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, WHICH WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN END WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 95 63 94 63 / 10 20 5 0
DULCE........................... 89 50 91 51 / 20 20 10 0
CUBA............................ 88 59 90 59 / 20 20 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 91 56 90 57 / 30 20 20 0
EL MORRO........................ 86 56 87 56 / 30 20 20 5
GRANTS.......................... 89 57 90 59 / 40 20 20 5
QUEMADO......................... 87 58 88 58 / 30 10 20 5
MAGDALENA....................... 89 64 90 64 / 20 10 20 5
DATIL........................... 85 58 86 59 / 20 10 20 10
RESERVE......................... 94 58 95 59 / 10 10 20 0
GLENWOOD........................ 99 65 100 65 / 10 10 20 0
CHAMA........................... 83 51 85 52 / 30 20 30 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 62 88 63 / 40 30 20 10
PECOS........................... 88 60 89 59 / 20 20 20 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 84 55 85 55 / 60 20 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 74 48 76 48 / 40 20 40 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 81 43 82 43 / 20 20 50 20
TAOS............................ 88 54 89 55 / 40 20 20 20
MORA............................ 86 55 86 55 / 20 20 50 20
ESPANOLA........................ 94 60 95 62 / 20 30 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 89 63 90 63 / 20 20 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 61 93 61 / 20 20 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 96 69 97 69 / 10 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 97 67 97 68 / 10 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 98 67 99 67 / 10 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 96 68 97 69 / 10 20 5 0
BELEN........................... 98 66 99 66 / 10 10 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 98 67 99 68 / 20 20 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 98 65 99 66 / 10 10 0 0
CORRALES........................ 98 67 99 68 / 20 20 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 98 66 98 67 / 10 10 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 94 66 95 67 / 20 20 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 97 67 98 68 / 20 20 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 100 70 100 70 / 10 10 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 89 63 90 63 / 20 20 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 91 64 92 64 / 10 10 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 92 59 93 60 / 20 10 10 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 94 57 95 58 / 20 10 10 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 61 90 61 / 20 10 10 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 92 61 92 61 / 10 10 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 91 61 92 62 / 10 10 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 94 67 96 68 / 10 10 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 86 62 88 63 / 10 10 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 88 57 87 57 / 40 30 50 50
RATON........................... 91 55 91 55 / 50 30 60 30
SPRINGER........................ 94 56 93 56 / 40 20 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 57 90 57 / 20 20 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 97 65 96 65 / 40 20 30 60
ROY............................. 94 60 93 61 / 20 30 20 40
CONCHAS......................... 102 67 101 67 / 20 20 5 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 98 66 98 65 / 20 20 5 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 102 69 101 68 / 20 20 5 20
CLOVIS.......................... 101 71 102 69 / 20 10 5 20
PORTALES........................ 101 72 103 70 / 10 10 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 101 70 102 69 / 20 20 0 20
ROSWELL......................... 103 72 105 72 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 98 67 99 67 / 10 0 5 0
ELK............................. 95 64 97 64 / 10 10 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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