674
FXUS65 KABQ 251951
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
151 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE THE RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
STORM COVERAGE WILL PEAK OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM THRU THURSDAY
AS MOISTURE DEEPENS WESTWARD BENEATH A 598DM H5 HIGH SHIFTING INTO
SOUTHWEST NM.
THE 18Z KABQ RAOB SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.85" WITH A WEAK INVERSION NEAR
450MB, H5 TEMPS OF -8C, AND WEST-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OF 10-20KT.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HOVERING IN THE 40S AT 1PM, EVEN OVER EASTERN
NM. STRONG STORMS ARE FORMING OVER NORTHEAST NM AND WILL INTENSIFY
DOWNSTREAM INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH IMPROVING SHEAR. THE
LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
OF 70 TO 80 MPH AND LARGE HAIL LATER TODAY. THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE
OF A SEVERE T-STORM WATCH FOR NORTHEAST NM. 12Z CAMS AND PROB QPF
SHOW HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST NM AS WELL (>1"). SOIL
MOISTURE IS VERY LOW SO THE RISK FOR FLOODING IS ALSO LOW OUTSIDE
OF TRAINING CELLS IN THIS PART OF THE STATE. MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TONIGHT ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND ALLOW PWATS TO RISE INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN OVERALL REPEAT IN THE STORM PATTERN IS LIKELY BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WITH STEERING FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTH
TO SOUTH EACH DAY. 72-HR QPF VALUES MAY EXCEED 3" IN LOCALIZED
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NM BUT THE FLOOD RISK SHOULD REMAIN LOW UNLESS
REPEAT ROUNDS OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE RAINFALL RATES >2"/HR.
TEMPS WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EACH DAY THRU THURSDAY BUT
MANY NEAR-RECORDS OR RECORDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS LIKELY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NM. GREATER SUBSIDENCE WITH LOWER
PWATS AND EVEN HOTTER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. MOST STORMS WILL FOCUS
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH MORE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE.
BEYOND FRIDAY, EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE
MONSOON HIGH SLIGHTLY WHILE IT SHIFTS EAST INTO WEST TX AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
SHIFT TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
TREND HOTTER AGAIN IN THIS PATTERN OVER EASTERN NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GROW INTO SHRA/TS THRU
3PM. ANY ACTIVITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS >40KT AND BRIEF
RAIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST-
CENTRAL NM WHERE WIND GUSTS >50KT, LARGE HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR THRU 8PM. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SURGE WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY CANYON WINDS
FOR A FEW HOURS. THE LATEST PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS >35KT AT KABQ IS
BELOW 10% OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL FOCUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN THRU
THURSDAY. CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL BE DRIER WITH BRIEF RAIN
AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. NEW FIRE STARTS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES IN DRY FUELS. BURN SCAR
FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR IN AREAS WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NM FRIDAY THRU MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
TX. RECORD-TO-NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EUROPEAN CENTER EXTENDED MODEL IS
HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NORTHWEST NM FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 63 96 66 95 / 5 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 49 92 48 92 / 5 5 10 10
CUBA............................ 58 91 57 89 / 10 10 20 10
GALLUP.......................... 55 92 56 91 / 5 10 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 55 88 56 87 / 10 20 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 58 91 58 90 / 10 20 30 40
QUEMADO......................... 58 90 59 89 / 10 20 10 20
MAGDALENA....................... 64 89 63 88 / 10 20 20 40
DATIL........................... 60 87 59 85 / 10 20 20 40
RESERVE......................... 58 97 59 95 / 5 5 10 30
GLENWOOD........................ 65 102 66 100 / 5 0 5 20
CHAMA........................... 52 85 51 84 / 10 20 10 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 86 59 86 / 20 50 40 40
PECOS........................... 58 87 56 87 / 10 50 50 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 84 54 84 / 20 50 50 30
RED RIVER....................... 46 82 45 80 / 20 60 60 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 80 39 80 / 20 70 70 50
TAOS............................ 53 89 52 86 / 10 50 50 30
MORA............................ 53 82 51 83 / 10 60 60 50
ESPANOLA........................ 61 94 59 92 / 10 40 40 20
SANTA FE........................ 61 88 60 86 / 10 30 40 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 91 59 90 / 10 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 95 65 94 / 10 30 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 96 65 95 / 10 30 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 98 64 98 / 10 20 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 98 67 96 / 10 20 30 5
BELEN........................... 66 99 65 97 / 10 20 30 5
BERNALILLO...................... 68 98 66 97 / 10 30 30 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 65 99 63 97 / 10 20 30 5
CORRALES........................ 68 99 66 98 / 10 30 30 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 99 65 97 / 10 20 30 5
PLACITAS........................ 67 93 63 92 / 10 30 40 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 97 66 96 / 10 30 30 5
SOCORRO......................... 72 102 70 99 / 5 10 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 88 59 86 / 10 30 50 20
TIJERAS......................... 63 92 60 90 / 10 30 40 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 92 57 91 / 10 30 50 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 93 55 92 / 10 30 40 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 87 56 87 / 10 40 40 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 92 57 90 / 10 30 40 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 91 58 89 / 10 30 30 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 96 66 93 / 5 10 10 20
RUIDOSO......................... 62 87 58 85 / 5 30 10 60
CAPULIN......................... 55 82 54 82 / 60 80 50 40
RATON........................... 53 85 53 85 / 50 80 60 50
SPRINGER........................ 55 86 54 86 / 30 70 60 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 85 55 84 / 20 70 60 50
CLAYTON......................... 63 85 61 87 / 60 30 40 20
ROY............................. 59 85 58 84 / 40 60 60 20
CONCHAS......................... 65 94 64 93 / 40 40 60 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 91 62 90 / 30 30 60 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 93 63 92 / 40 20 40 10
CLOVIS.......................... 67 97 65 94 / 30 10 60 20
PORTALES........................ 68 97 66 94 / 20 10 60 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 97 65 95 / 20 10 60 10
ROSWELL......................... 70 101 69 98 / 5 0 40 5
PICACHO......................... 65 95 63 93 / 5 20 30 20
ELK............................. 64 94 61 92 / 5 40 10 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ236-238.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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