453
FXUS65 KABQ 312009
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
209 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
- STORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL FAVOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT,
THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE SPREADING TO MORE OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
- THERE WILL BE A LOW-TO-MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW
RUIDOSO-AREA BURN SCARS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RISK OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD TO MORE OF THE
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
A RICH PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD. STORMS WILL MOVE SWIFTLY TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 20-45 MPH, BUT THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WHERE CELLS MANAGE TO
TRAIN. THERE WILL THEN BE A DOWNTICK IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS THE WEAKENING MOISTURE PLUME TILTS
EASTWARD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL THEN BE ANOTHER
DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO STEER DRIER AIR OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD OVER WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WILL COOL SOME TUESDAY, THEN
BEGIN TO REBOUND WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
AFTER PWATS BOTTOM OUT OVER NORTHWEST AREAS AROUND 0.50-0.75" ON
WEDNESDAY, THEY WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD OVER AZ AND
WESTERN NM. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN AREAS, AND
PROBABLY ALSO OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA SCARS, AS PWATS CLIMB AROUND
1.10-1.30" ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS VARY ON HOW WELL THE
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY, WITH
SOME SUGGESTING AN ENE TO WSW RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTHERN NM WILL
SHIFT THE MOISTURE PLUME WESTWARD OVER AZ. AFTER CONTINUED WARMING
THURSDAY, THE INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CAUSE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AT SPEEDS AROUND 20-45 MPH WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS WEST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
NEAR 50 KT. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
1991-2020 AVERAGES ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL MAKE
DENSITY ALTITUDE AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR AVIATION
OPERATIONS NEAR COMPLEX TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
SINCE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT
WEEK, ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH THIS
EVENING, THEN THE RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 58 84 58 86 / 30 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 84 44 84 / 60 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 54 82 54 84 / 70 10 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 49 82 50 84 / 20 20 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 50 80 50 81 / 30 20 20 5
GRANTS.......................... 53 83 53 85 / 50 20 10 5
QUEMADO......................... 54 80 54 82 / 50 30 20 10
MAGDALENA....................... 59 83 59 84 / 30 50 20 30
DATIL........................... 54 79 54 81 / 40 30 20 20
RESERVE......................... 53 88 52 89 / 40 20 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 57 93 57 94 / 30 20 20 5
CHAMA........................... 49 77 48 78 / 80 10 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 81 59 83 / 70 30 20 5
PECOS........................... 56 84 56 86 / 60 20 20 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 81 52 82 / 70 20 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 46 72 44 73 / 60 20 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 78 37 79 / 60 20 10 20
TAOS............................ 52 84 51 86 / 70 20 10 5
MORA............................ 52 81 50 84 / 50 30 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 59 89 57 90 / 70 30 20 0
SANTA FE........................ 60 84 61 86 / 60 20 20 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 87 58 88 / 60 20 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 92 67 93 / 50 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 91 65 93 / 40 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 93 63 95 / 40 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 91 67 93 / 40 20 10 0
BELEN........................... 62 93 62 94 / 30 20 10 5
BERNALILLO...................... 65 92 65 94 / 50 20 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 93 61 94 / 40 20 10 0
CORRALES........................ 65 93 65 94 / 50 20 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 93 63 94 / 40 20 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 64 89 65 91 / 50 20 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 92 66 93 / 40 20 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 67 95 67 96 / 30 30 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 86 59 87 / 60 20 20 0
TIJERAS......................... 59 86 61 87 / 50 20 20 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 56 88 57 89 / 40 20 20 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 89 54 90 / 30 20 20 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 86 58 86 / 20 20 20 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 87 57 88 / 40 20 20 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 87 58 88 / 30 20 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 90 64 91 / 20 20 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 57 83 58 84 / 30 50 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 57 84 55 86 / 20 40 20 10
RATON........................... 54 86 51 89 / 30 50 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 55 89 52 91 / 30 50 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 85 54 87 / 20 20 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 66 92 66 94 / 5 10 20 5
ROY............................. 62 88 59 90 / 10 30 20 5
CONCHAS......................... 68 97 66 98 / 5 20 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 92 64 93 / 10 30 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 97 68 98 / 0 10 20 0
CLOVIS.......................... 67 96 68 98 / 0 10 10 0
PORTALES........................ 68 97 68 99 / 0 10 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 97 68 98 / 0 20 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 71 99 71 100 / 0 10 10 5
PICACHO......................... 62 93 63 94 / 20 50 20 30
ELK............................. 59 90 60 91 / 20 50 20 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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