909
FXUS65 KABQ 012049
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
249 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- STORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL FAVOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING, THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EAST SLOPES WEDNESDAY, THEN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
- RICH MONSOON MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVEN DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ALSO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF MOUNTAINS, AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR
NORTH AS CLINES CORNERS. MODELS INDICATE THERE WILL BE SOME VIRGA
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES
AND GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40,
AND POTENTIALLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TO THE CO BORDER. MOST OF THESE CELLS
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10-20 MPH. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
COMPARED TO THE COOL READINGS OVER CENTRAL AREAS TODAY, HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLIMB A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL START OUT CENTERED
OVER NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY, THEN MIGRATE WESTWARD TO NM'S
EASTERN BORDER WITH TX BY SATURDAY, BEFORE DRIFTING A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN STALLED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN
IT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT INLAND. MODELS DEPICT THIS SETUP DRAWING
ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER AZ AND WESTERN NM
STARTING OVER SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY, THEN
OVER MORE OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND RAINFALL INTENSITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER PWATS
BOTTOM OUT OVER NORTHWEST AREAS AROUND 0.50-0.75" ON WEDNESDAY,
THEY WILL CLIMB AROUND 1.10-1.40" ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY WITH A RISK OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, AND
AT TIMES OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL. SOME DAYS WILL
BE MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THAN OTHERS, DEPENDING ON WHEN
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON FLOW TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME, THE GFS, WHICH OFTEN DOES A GOOD JOB
FORECASTING SUCH DISTURBANCES, INDICATES DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
WESTERN NM BOTH FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. WE'LL MONITOR THE TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. ALSO, THE MOVEMENT OF
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIKE THE ONE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. SO, THE
STRENGTH OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE WEAKER OR STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST DEPENDING ON IF OR WHEN THE UPPER LOW ACTUALLY SHIFTS
INLAND OVER THE THE NORTHWEST US.
AFTER CONTINUED WARMING THURSDAY, THE INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE
SHOULD CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD AT THE END OF
THE WEEK, AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL THEN LINGER DURING THE EVENING FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. STORM MOTION WILL
BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 15-25 MPH. A FEW OF TODAY'S
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS WITH
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
SINCE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT
WEEK, ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THIS
EVENING, AND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. IN
ADDITION, A FEW OF THE GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 57 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 43 85 45 85 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 54 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 50 84 52 85 / 0 5 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 51 82 52 82 / 0 10 5 40
GRANTS.......................... 53 86 55 85 / 5 10 5 40
QUEMADO......................... 54 82 55 82 / 0 10 5 50
MAGDALENA....................... 59 84 60 84 / 20 10 5 50
DATIL........................... 54 81 55 80 / 10 10 10 60
RESERVE......................... 53 90 53 89 / 10 10 5 40
GLENWOOD........................ 57 94 58 94 / 10 10 5 20
CHAMA........................... 47 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 82 60 83 / 10 0 0 20
PECOS........................... 55 85 57 86 / 10 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 81 53 82 / 0 10 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 43 73 45 74 / 0 10 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 79 38 80 / 10 10 0 10
TAOS............................ 49 85 51 86 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 50 83 52 84 / 10 10 0 20
ESPANOLA........................ 56 90 58 90 / 5 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 59 85 61 86 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 88 59 89 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 93 68 93 / 10 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 93 65 93 / 10 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 95 64 95 / 10 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 93 68 93 / 10 5 0 5
BELEN........................... 61 94 64 94 / 10 5 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 64 94 66 94 / 10 5 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 60 93 62 94 / 10 5 0 10
CORRALES........................ 64 94 66 95 / 10 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 93 64 94 / 10 5 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 64 90 66 91 / 20 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 93 67 93 / 10 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 67 96 69 96 / 10 5 5 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 87 61 87 / 20 5 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 60 87 62 88 / 20 5 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 89 58 89 / 20 10 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 90 55 91 / 20 10 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 86 59 87 / 20 20 0 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 88 59 88 / 10 10 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 87 59 88 / 10 10 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 91 64 91 / 10 10 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 57 83 59 84 / 10 20 5 50
CAPULIN......................... 54 85 56 86 / 20 10 0 0
RATON........................... 50 89 52 89 / 10 10 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 51 91 52 91 / 20 10 0 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 86 55 87 / 10 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 64 93 65 95 / 20 0 0 0
ROY............................. 57 90 58 91 / 30 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 64 98 67 99 / 20 0 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 93 65 94 / 20 10 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 97 70 99 / 30 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 67 98 70 99 / 10 10 10 10
PORTALES........................ 68 98 70 100 / 10 10 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 97 69 99 / 20 10 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 70 100 72 101 / 10 10 5 0
PICACHO......................... 62 93 64 94 / 10 30 5 30
ELK............................. 58 91 61 92 / 20 30 5 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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