416
FXUS65 KABQ 032038
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
238 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
- FAIRLY RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
DAILY RISK OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL, WESTERN, AND
NORTHERN AREAS.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK OVER EASTERN AREAS, WHERE MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MAJOR HEAT RISK EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
WITH THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR TN, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSING ONSHORE OVER THE OR COAST, AND
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TROPICS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NM, MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, THEN AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY LINGER LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST, EXCEPT
FOR MORE NUMEROUS CELLS AROUND THE SOUTH CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST, AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WITH PWATS CLIMBING AROUND 1-1.3" TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WHEN THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED MOISTURE, PRECIP, AND CLOUD COVER ON
FRIDAY, WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO FALL A FEW TO 7
DEGREES OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM COMPARED TO TODAY'S READINGS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM 6 DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020 AVERAGES
AROUND FARMINGTON AND GALLUP, TO AS MUCH AS 12 DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVERAGES AROUND CLOVIS AND PORTALES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH VARIES ITS POSITION
EAST OF NM AND THE UPPER LOW ON THE OR COAST GRADUALLY SWEEPS
INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS CONTINUE TO VARY AROUND
1-1.3 INCHES. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO SLOW DOWN THIS WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER HIGH ALOFT DRAWS CLOSER TO NM. MODELS VARY ON WHETHER
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO STEER DRIER
AIR OVER NM ON TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A DOWNTICK IN
STORM COVERAGE AND RAINFALL INTENSITY AT LEAST OVER NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE STATE. MODELS VARY EVEN MORE ON THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER HIGH AFTER TUESDAY, WITH DRIER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A
CENTROID NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF NM, AND WETTER SOLUTIONS
RECENTERING THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
MANZANO, SANDIA, AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. HIGH RES MODELS
DEPICT SOME ISOLATED CELLS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 10-20 MPH, EXCEPT AS FAST AS 30 MPH NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE 15 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS, THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FROM DAY TO DAY WILL BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 60 82 59 83 / 20 20 10 0
DULCE........................... 46 82 47 85 / 40 20 20 10
CUBA............................ 56 79 56 82 / 50 30 50 10
GALLUP.......................... 54 77 53 80 / 30 30 20 5
EL MORRO........................ 52 75 52 78 / 40 50 30 20
GRANTS.......................... 54 80 55 82 / 40 60 40 20
QUEMADO......................... 55 77 55 79 / 50 70 40 30
MAGDALENA....................... 59 82 59 83 / 30 60 40 40
DATIL........................... 54 77 55 79 / 30 60 30 50
RESERVE......................... 55 84 54 86 / 40 50 30 50
GLENWOOD........................ 58 90 58 94 / 50 30 20 30
CHAMA........................... 50 77 50 80 / 30 30 20 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 81 61 83 / 40 30 40 40
PECOS........................... 58 84 57 86 / 20 20 40 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 81 55 83 / 20 20 20 40
RED RIVER....................... 46 72 47 74 / 20 20 10 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 78 40 80 / 20 40 20 70
TAOS............................ 53 84 53 86 / 20 20 20 30
MORA............................ 54 83 54 83 / 20 40 30 70
ESPANOLA........................ 59 88 60 90 / 30 30 40 20
SANTA FE........................ 61 84 61 86 / 20 20 40 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 87 59 89 / 20 20 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 90 67 92 / 20 20 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 90 65 92 / 20 20 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 92 64 94 / 20 20 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 90 67 92 / 20 20 30 10
BELEN........................... 63 91 63 93 / 20 30 40 10
BERNALILLO...................... 66 91 66 93 / 30 20 40 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 91 62 93 / 20 30 30 10
CORRALES........................ 66 91 66 94 / 20 20 40 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 91 63 93 / 20 30 30 10
PLACITAS........................ 65 88 65 90 / 30 20 40 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 90 66 93 / 20 20 40 10
SOCORRO......................... 68 94 67 95 / 30 30 30 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 85 59 86 / 20 20 40 30
TIJERAS......................... 61 85 61 87 / 20 20 30 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 88 57 88 / 20 30 30 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 89 55 90 / 10 30 30 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 86 59 86 / 10 30 30 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 86 57 87 / 20 30 30 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 87 58 87 / 20 30 30 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 90 64 90 / 10 40 20 60
RUIDOSO......................... 58 83 58 83 / 10 60 20 80
CAPULIN......................... 58 87 58 86 / 5 20 10 40
RATON........................... 55 89 55 89 / 10 20 10 40
SPRINGER........................ 55 91 56 91 / 10 20 10 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 86 57 86 / 10 30 20 50
CLAYTON......................... 66 95 66 94 / 0 10 20 20
ROY............................. 61 90 61 90 / 5 20 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 67 99 67 98 / 5 20 20 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 93 65 93 / 5 20 20 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 70 99 69 98 / 5 10 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 69 99 68 98 / 20 20 20 5
PORTALES........................ 70 100 69 99 / 20 20 20 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 99 68 98 / 10 10 20 0
ROSWELL......................... 70 101 70 100 / 10 20 20 0
PICACHO......................... 64 94 64 93 / 10 60 10 30
ELK............................. 60 91 60 91 / 20 50 20 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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