605
FXUS65 KABQ 191915
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
115 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TODAY, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A
RISK OF LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING MAINLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED THE PAST FEW DAYS.
- AFTER A BREAK FROM STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE SURGE
OF MONSOON MOISTURE PRODUCES PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME GETTING SHOVED EAST BY DRY WESTERLIES ROUNDING THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH, CENTERED OVER THE ID/UT BORDER.
HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS FOR A ROUND OF ROBUST
CONVECTION AS EVIDENCED BY THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND THE 18Z
KABQ SOUNDING SHOWING A 0.94" PWAT, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. LATEST CAMS PROGRESS THIS ROUND
OF CONVECTION EAST INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RGV, INCLUDING THE
SANTA FE METRO, LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE IT EAST
BEYOND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND INTO THE ADJACENT EASTERN
HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY RESIDE FOR A FEW STRONG TO NEAR-SEVERE STORMS, WITH
SMALL HAIL AND STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS LIKELY. STORMS ARE MOVING
AT A DECENT CLIP OF 20-30MPH TODAY, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT TO TRAINING STORMS AND THE ABQ AND SANTA FE METROS.
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL OVERTAKE NM TONIGHT, WITH PWATS DROPPING
RAPIDLY. HOWEVER, A RELATIVELY MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL
REMAIN AND WITH WET GROUNDS A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE RGV ALTHOUGH INFLATED BY
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL LATER TODAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE A DOWN DAY A PWATS
CRASH TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE, WHICH REPRESENTS INSUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM OVER CENTRAL CA ON
MONDAY, WHILE A BACKDOOR FRONT MAKES WESTWARD PROGRESS INTO
EASTERN NM. ANY CONVECTION THAT SPARKS MONDAY WILL BE BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND CLOSER TO THE TX/OK BORDERS WHERE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. PWATS WILL RAMP UP DRAMATICALLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A RENEWED MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME STANDS UP OVER
THE REGION WITH THE PACIFIC LOW ON SLOW APPROACH AND THE UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TX COAST. THE PACIFIC LOW IS FORECAST TO
FILL AND LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE
UPPER GULF COAST, WHICH WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO NM. PWATS ON TUE/WED ARE FORECAST TO CHALLENGE
DAILY RECORD VALUES AND THE PERIOD IS LOOKING RATHER WET WITH
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL RAMP-UP
TUE/WED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY ON/NEAR AREA BURN
SCARS. THE WPC HAS INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TUE/WED. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW FAVORING
KEEPING TROPICAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF MX AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH RIDGES WESTWARD OVER
NORTHERN MX AND KEEPS NM FROM REALIZING A TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH.
THAT SAID, SOUTH CENTRAL, EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM LOOK TO
RECEIVE THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TUE-THU, WITH QPF
RANGING FROM 2-3" AND LOCALLY AS HAS HIGH AS 6"!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, BUT SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE KABQ/KAEG/KSAF
AIRSPACE WILL BE DEALING WITH THESE STORMS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS BETWEEN 22-01Z. PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM,
IMPACTING KABQ, KAEG AND KSAF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR IMPACTS FROM LOW STRATUS/FOG IN THOSE TAFS, BUT LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND LARGELY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL RE-
WETTING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS AN ACTIVE LATE MONSOON SEASON PATTERN
PERSISTS. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A DOWNTURN
IN STORM COVERAGE SUN/MON AS THE WESTERLIES BRING IN A DRIER
AIRMASS. A RENEWED MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL STAND UP OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL AS THE UPPER
HIGH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER GULF COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 80 47 80 / 5 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 40 78 38 78 / 10 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 47 75 47 74 / 10 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 44 78 44 78 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 45 74 45 74 / 10 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 46 78 46 77 / 10 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 48 76 49 77 / 10 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 54 78 54 77 / 20 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 50 75 51 75 / 10 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 52 81 52 81 / 10 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 59 86 60 87 / 10 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 43 71 42 72 / 10 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 76 53 75 / 20 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 49 78 48 76 / 30 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 75 46 74 / 10 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 42 65 40 65 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 33 71 30 70 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 46 78 44 77 / 20 0 0 0
MORA............................ 46 77 45 73 / 20 0 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 52 82 51 81 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 52 77 51 76 / 30 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 79 50 79 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 81 58 81 / 40 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 82 57 81 / 40 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 57 83 57 83 / 40 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 82 57 81 / 30 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 56 84 56 84 / 40 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 55 83 55 83 / 40 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 55 84 55 84 / 40 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 56 83 56 83 / 40 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 85 55 84 / 40 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 55 81 55 80 / 40 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 82 56 82 / 40 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 60 86 61 86 / 30 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 52 76 52 76 / 40 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 54 79 54 78 / 40 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 80 51 79 / 40 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 46 81 47 80 / 40 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 78 51 75 / 30 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 54 78 53 78 / 40 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 79 54 79 / 40 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 83 60 83 / 10 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 55 77 54 76 / 20 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 49 77 50 71 / 20 0 30 20
RATON........................... 48 82 49 76 / 10 0 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 48 84 49 78 / 20 0 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 48 78 47 74 / 20 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 56 83 56 74 / 20 5 30 40
ROY............................. 54 82 54 74 / 20 0 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 60 90 59 81 / 20 5 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 87 58 80 / 20 5 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 88 59 80 / 20 5 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 61 88 60 82 / 20 5 10 40
PORTALES........................ 63 89 62 84 / 20 10 10 50
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 91 61 85 / 20 10 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 63 94 63 90 / 30 5 0 5
PICACHO......................... 61 88 60 84 / 30 10 0 5
ELK............................. 57 85 57 82 / 20 10 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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