793
FXUS65 KABQ 230612 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1212 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- A DANGEROUS SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS SOME MAIN
STEM RIVER AND TRIBUTARY FLOODING.
- THE MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE AT A LESS INTENSE PACE
FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, EVEN
AS RAIN AMOUNTS BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD.
- AFTER DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, MONSOON MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND BRING MORE SOAKING
RAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME STANDING UP OVER THE REGION WITH A PACIFIC LOW ON SLOW
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER HIGH POSITIONED ALONG THE TX
COAST. PWATS ARE RAMPING UP RAPIDLY, REACHING 1.20" ON THE 18Z
KEPZ UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND 0.97" ON KABQ. THESE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRENDING UP TO NEAR CALENDAR DAY RECORD
VALUES THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
MAJOR HURRICANE POLO, CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWEST MX, GETS
PULLED INTO THIS MONSOONAL PATTERN. THE OVERALL VERY WET FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HASN'T CHANGED MUCH, BUT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS MODELED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NM THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND PROVIDE ADEQUATE FORCING FOR CONTINUED HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA PER THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOME OF THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES
WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FROM THE WATCH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING GIVEN
THE FORECAST PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A RAIN-COOLED LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER. FLASH FLOODING IS THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON/NEAR THE RUIDOSO BURN SCARS. THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN RUIDOSO IS HIGH TODAY AS INSTABILITY
GETS USED UP AND STORMS PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. ONCE THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER GETS COOLED OVERNIGHT, RAINFALL RATES WILL
COME DOWN AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO BE MORE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY LONGER DURATION ACCUMULATION VS SHORT
DURATION RAINFALL INTENSITY/RATES. EXPECT A DECREASE IN LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY WEDNESDAY AS
SHOWERS BECOME PREDOMINANT. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL RAMP BACK UP,
ALONG WITH RAINFALL RATES, WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WESTERN NM AND
PROVIDES ADDED FORCING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT NORTH INTO COLORADO EARLY
THURSDAY AND LEAVE BEHIND A WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AT THE SAME TIME,
PWATS WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN NM AS THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME LEANS EAST. POPS HAVE TRENDED DOWN THURSDAY AS A
RESULT AND A MORE LIMITED ROUND OF CONVECTION IS NOW EXPECTED.
THAT SAID, GROUNDS WILL BE SATURATED, SO LESS RAINFALL WILL BE
NEEDED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS OF THE
PACIFIC LOW/TROUGH WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND MOVE
ACROSS NM AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY, INTERACTING WITH LEFT-
OVER MOISTURE AND PRODUCING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY FROM RUIDOSO EAST TO
THE TX BORDER. THE PWAT DOWNTREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY,
WITH THE WESTERLIES BRINGING SOME WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A PACIFIC TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE FROM
MAJOR HURRICANE POLO AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH SOAKING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF NM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL, WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, WEDNESDAY,
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHERE THERE WILL BE DECREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION,
FOG, AND LOW CLOUDS. ANY FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS FROM XNI, TO
GUP, TO FMN SHOULD BE SHORTLIVED. STORM MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTH AT SPEEDS FROM 15-25 KT. ON
WEDNESDAY, STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 25-35 KT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS, AND MOSTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AT SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS AN ACTIVE LATE MONSOON SEASON PATTERN
PERSISTS. HIGH HUMIDITY AND SOAKING RAINS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING AND DRYING OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE PATTERN TURNS WET AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE MORE SOAKING RAINS AND HIGH HUMIDITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 82 56 68 54 / 40 70 60 60
DULCE........................... 73 47 63 45 / 70 80 90 90
CUBA............................ 74 50 60 48 / 60 90 90 90
GALLUP.......................... 77 51 63 46 / 60 80 60 40
EL MORRO........................ 68 49 58 44 / 70 80 90 60
GRANTS.......................... 71 52 61 48 / 60 90 90 70
QUEMADO......................... 70 52 60 48 / 70 90 90 50
MAGDALENA....................... 70 54 59 51 / 70 100 100 70
DATIL........................... 69 51 57 47 / 70 90 90 70
RESERVE......................... 74 53 67 49 / 60 90 80 40
GLENWOOD........................ 77 57 74 54 / 60 80 90 50
CHAMA........................... 71 46 58 45 / 70 90 90 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 69 52 59 52 / 60 100 100 100
PECOS........................... 72 50 62 50 / 60 90 100 100
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 70 49 61 48 / 30 80 90 100
RED RIVER....................... 62 43 53 43 / 40 80 90 100
ANGEL FIRE...................... 66 39 58 38 / 60 90 90 100
TAOS............................ 70 49 64 48 / 50 80 90 100
MORA............................ 63 49 61 49 / 60 100 90 100
ESPANOLA........................ 80 54 66 53 / 50 90 90 100
SANTA FE........................ 73 53 62 53 / 70 100 100 100
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 53 64 52 / 60 90 100 100
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 72 57 67 56 / 70 90 100 100
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 76 57 66 56 / 70 90 90 90
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 76 58 68 56 / 60 90 90 90
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 75 58 66 57 / 70 90 90 90
BELEN........................... 77 58 66 55 / 60 90 100 80
BERNALILLO...................... 76 57 67 56 / 70 90 90 90
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 75 56 67 54 / 70 90 90 80
CORRALES........................ 75 57 68 56 / 70 90 90 90
LOS LUNAS....................... 76 57 66 55 / 60 90 90 80
PLACITAS........................ 72 56 64 55 / 70 90 100 100
RIO RANCHO...................... 74 57 66 57 / 70 90 90 90
SOCORRO......................... 83 59 69 56 / 70 90 100 80
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 52 61 51 / 80 90 100 100
TIJERAS......................... 67 54 62 53 / 70 90 100 100
EDGEWOOD........................ 65 52 64 52 / 60 90 100 100
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 73 52 66 50 / 60 90 100 100
CLINES CORNERS.................. 70 52 63 51 / 70 100 100 100
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 70 54 64 51 / 70 90 100 100
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 69 54 64 52 / 60 90 100 100
CARRIZOZO....................... 79 58 68 56 / 60 90 100 90
RUIDOSO......................... 70 54 63 52 / 70 90 90 90
CAPULIN......................... 73 51 64 51 / 30 50 80 100
RATON........................... 76 52 66 51 / 30 50 80 100
SPRINGER........................ 76 53 68 53 / 30 70 80 100
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 52 61 51 / 50 90 90 100
CLAYTON......................... 78 58 71 59 / 20 70 80 100
ROY............................. 73 55 66 56 / 30 70 90 100
CONCHAS......................... 80 60 74 61 / 40 90 90 100
SANTA ROSA...................... 74 59 69 60 / 40 90 100 90
TUCUMCARI....................... 84 61 76 60 / 30 90 90 90
CLOVIS.......................... 84 60 77 61 / 40 60 70 80
PORTALES........................ 83 62 78 63 / 40 60 60 80
FORT SUMNER..................... 79 62 75 62 / 40 90 90 90
ROSWELL......................... 84 64 77 62 / 40 80 60 90
PICACHO......................... 79 59 70 58 / 60 90 90 80
ELK............................. 74 57 69 56 / 70 90 90 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ201>234-237>241.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44
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