273
FXUS65 KABQ 260626
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1226 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING SATURDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF OR MOVING INTO TEXAS.
- CONTINUED RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AS
RUNOFF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THESE SYSTEMS, NOTABLY THE PECOS
RIVER.
- ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER
STRETCH OF INCREASED FLASH FLOODING RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
THE CURRENT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH OVERALL ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO PROGRESS INTO TX AND
WEAKEN. CONDITIONS CALM IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING WITHIN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL BURN OFF BEFORE MID-DAY MOST AREAS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGING A MUCH NEEDED BREAK IN STRETCH OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL BE PLEASANT FOR MOST, STAYING IN THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS, 70S IN MIDDLE ELEVATIONS, AND 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.
SUNDAY SEES THE START OF THE NEXT STRETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SURGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO RESOLVE A 569DM H5 CLOSED LOW DIGGING DOWN THE CA
COASTLINE. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT TO BRING HURRICANE POLO NORTHWARD
ALONG THE BAJA COAST. INCREASED SHEAR AND MOISTURE RIDING UP THE
MOGOLLON RIM WILL YIELD THUNDERSTORMS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL FAVOR TRACKING INTO WESTERN NM. CONTINUOUSLY INCREASED SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING H5 LOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
A SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS PERIOD OF MONSOON MOISTURE
AND TWO MERGING STORM SYSTEMS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FAVORED
TO BEGIN MONDAY. PWATS SPIKE TO 1.20", POTENTIALLY HIGHER 1.30+" BY
TUESDAY. WITH A STOUT SPEEDMAX ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE 569DM H5 LOW, STORM SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
FAST, WITH A FEW STORMS BEING CAPABLE OF ORGANIZING AND THREATENING
SOME BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER. STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS
REPEATEDLY WILL AGAIN THREATEN FLASH FLOODING MONDAY.
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE COME INTO VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO WILL ABSORB
INTO THE H5 LOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON ITS SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
TUESDAY. THIS PARTICULARLY DYNAMIC WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM WRIT LARGE ACROSS AZ/NM. A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAVORED WITH
THIS. MULTI-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD FAVOR RANGES OF 1 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL EXACERBATE CURRENT ONGOING FLOODING RECOVERY EFFORTS NEXT
WEEK. FURTHER RISES ON AREA TRIBUTARIES, STREAMS, AND RIVERS IS
EXPECTED.
THE H5 LOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NM THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
FAVORING NORTHEASTERN NM THE LONGEST THRU THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENTIRELY CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER, MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS HOUR. HEAVY RAINS,
HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THRU 09Z TO 11Z. OTHERWISE, PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS.
NEARLY ALL TAF TERMINALS COULD SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. AMDS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS.
VFR PREVAILS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES AND DRY
CONDITIONS NEARLY ALL AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS ABUNDANT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. ASIDE FROM TODAY'S DRIER
CONDITIONS, EACH DAY HAS NOTABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE STATE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREATENING FLASH FLOODING, NOTABLY OVER
RECENT BURN SCARS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 78 53 80 55 / 0 0 0 40
DULCE........................... 74 42 75 45 / 0 0 0 60
CUBA............................ 71 48 73 50 / 0 0 0 40
GALLUP.......................... 76 44 75 48 / 0 0 5 50
EL MORRO........................ 72 45 72 47 / 0 0 5 40
GRANTS.......................... 74 45 75 50 / 0 0 5 40
QUEMADO......................... 75 49 74 51 / 0 0 20 30
MAGDALENA....................... 73 53 75 56 / 0 0 10 10
DATIL........................... 72 48 73 51 / 0 0 10 20
RESERVE......................... 79 51 78 53 / 0 0 5 30
GLENWOOD........................ 85 57 84 58 / 0 0 10 30
CHAMA........................... 68 42 68 45 / 0 0 0 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 70 53 73 53 / 0 0 0 30
PECOS........................... 73 49 75 51 / 0 0 0 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 70 46 71 49 / 0 0 0 20
RED RIVER....................... 62 38 63 40 / 5 0 0 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 67 33 69 35 / 0 0 0 20
TAOS............................ 72 45 74 46 / 0 0 0 20
MORA............................ 71 47 72 48 / 0 0 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 77 51 79 53 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA FE........................ 73 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 74 50 77 53 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 75 57 79 58 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 77 58 79 58 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 78 58 81 58 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 77 57 80 58 / 0 0 0 10
BELEN........................... 78 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 78 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 78 55 81 56 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 78 56 81 58 / 0 0 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 78 55 81 57 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 75 55 78 57 / 0 0 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 77 56 80 58 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 80 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 70 52 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 71 54 75 55 / 0 0 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 72 51 76 51 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 75 46 79 49 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 72 51 75 52 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 72 52 76 52 / 0 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 72 52 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 77 58 80 59 / 5 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 73 52 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 74 50 75 52 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 78 49 79 51 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 79 49 80 51 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 74 48 76 51 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 81 57 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 78 53 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 83 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 82 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 85 57 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 82 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 84 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 84 59 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 85 60 88 60 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 82 58 84 58 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 80 55 81 55 / 0 0 5 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NMZ226-235-236-
238>240.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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