043
FXUS65 KABQ 291752 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- FLASH FLOODING IS AT A HEIGHTENED RISK STATEWIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WIDESPREAD AND LONG DURATION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- RIVER FLOODING IS FAVORED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW-LYING
FARMLAND, FIELDS, LOW WATER CROSSINGS, AND PROPERTY NEAR RIVERS
MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.
- THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO MAY BRING INCREASED
WIND GUSTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
IN SATURATED SOILS AND HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
AREAS OF RAIN ARE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER LAS VEGAS, NV.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY
WILL BE AROUND 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
AROUND 0.5 TO 1.25 INCH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH LOCALLY
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM. DURING THIS TIME,
HURRICANE POLO WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO SONORA MEXICO MID
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO WESTERN AZ DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY HELPING TO PULL POLO'S MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NM. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
(CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN
HOUR) INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM TUESDAY EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL BE THE HIGHEST
ACROSS THESE PORTIONS OF THE STATE. 1 TO 2.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH LOCALLY 3+ INCHES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN NM, DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A MODERATE RISK (40 TO 55%
WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS
THE STATE OUTSIDE OF FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST NM THROUGH 6 AM
MDT WEDNESDAY. CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR GRADUAL TO QUICK RISES WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
REACHING ACTION TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS COULD
BE CHALLENGED FOR SOME LOCATIONS (CURRENT RECORD FOR THE
ALBUQUERQUE OBSERVING STATION IS 2.08 INCHES BACK ON SEPTEMBER
28TH, 1893). ANOTHER THING TO WATCH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM (AND SOME GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS ACROSS THE ABQ AND SANTA FE METROS) AS POLO'S REMNANT MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ.
THE OVERALL RISK LOOKS LOWER COMPARED TO THE PRIOR 2 TO 3
FORECASTS BUT ANY BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY BRING DOWN
TREES AND RESULT IN SOME POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS
IN PLACE. POLO'S REMNANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALSO HELP TO
INCREASE THE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NM TO 35 TO 50 KTS, SO ANY EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
POLO'S REMNANT MOISTURE EXITS NORTHEAST NM MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION MOVES INTO WESTERN NM. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NM WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT AND SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESIDE. A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AROUND AND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM LOOK
TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY DUE TO A DRYSLOT MOVING OVER THESE AREAS AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST NM COULD RESULT IN MORE
FLOODING WITH A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK (15 TO 40%) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE
50S TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND UPPER 60S TO MID
70S ACROSS EASTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND A POTENT BACKDOOR FRONT. SOME WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND
CLOSER TO AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THURSDAY STREAMS AND
RIVERS WILL BE HIGHER AND FAST FLOWING DURING THIS TIME AS THE EARLY
WEEK RAINFALL MOVES DOWNSTREAM THROUGH VARIOUS CHANNELS. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN NM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY MOVES EAST TO OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR
CORNERS FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN A SPLENDID 1ST WEEKEND
OF OCTOBER. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. FOG WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS, DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS EACH DAY DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUNDS IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RA WITH EMBEDDED TS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM AS OF 18Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
AREAS OF RAIN. THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, TS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM, PRIMARILY AFTER 20Z.
ANY DIRECT IMPACT TO TERMINALS ARE LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT BRIEF LIFR
TO VLIFR CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. AS RA AND TS CONTINUE
TO ENCOMPASS THE AREA, MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING ALL TAF SITES,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR A FEW SITES
BRIEFLY LOWER TO LIFR CEILINGS AFTER 03-06Z. A FEW SITES MAY DEVELOP
LOCALIZED FOG AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. A FEW SOUTHEAST AREAS, INCLUDING KROW, ARE LIKELY
TO GET BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1243 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 53 64 49 / 80 100 90 40
DULCE........................... 61 43 60 38 / 80 100 100 60
CUBA............................ 58 47 58 42 / 100 100 90 40
GALLUP.......................... 58 43 58 41 / 100 100 80 20
EL MORRO........................ 56 40 55 39 / 100 100 70 30
GRANTS.......................... 58 45 60 43 / 100 100 60 30
QUEMADO......................... 58 43 56 44 / 100 100 70 60
MAGDALENA....................... 59 47 59 46 / 100 100 70 20
DATIL........................... 57 42 56 43 / 100 100 70 30
RESERVE......................... 64 45 62 45 / 100 100 60 30
GLENWOOD........................ 69 49 67 48 / 100 100 80 20
CHAMA........................... 55 44 54 39 / 90 100 100 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 50 57 46 / 100 100 90 60
PECOS........................... 61 48 60 42 / 100 100 70 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 60 47 57 41 / 90 100 100 90
RED RIVER....................... 52 40 49 35 / 100 100 100 100
ANGEL FIRE...................... 56 35 54 31 / 100 100 90 90
TAOS............................ 61 46 60 40 / 100 100 90 90
MORA............................ 59 48 59 43 / 100 100 70 60
ESPANOLA........................ 65 51 65 46 / 100 100 90 70
SANTA FE........................ 60 50 59 46 / 100 100 80 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 50 61 45 / 100 100 80 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 53 65 50 / 100 100 70 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 54 64 49 / 100 100 70 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 53 67 49 / 100 100 70 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 55 65 51 / 100 100 70 30
BELEN........................... 65 53 66 49 / 100 100 60 20
BERNALILLO...................... 65 54 66 50 / 100 100 70 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 65 52 66 48 / 100 100 60 20
CORRALES........................ 65 54 66 50 / 100 100 70 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 53 66 49 / 100 100 60 20
PLACITAS........................ 62 53 63 49 / 100 100 70 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 54 65 50 / 100 100 70 30
SOCORRO......................... 68 53 69 52 / 100 100 70 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 49 59 44 / 100 100 70 40
TIJERAS......................... 60 51 60 46 / 100 100 70 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 49 61 44 / 100 100 60 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 63 48 64 43 / 100 100 60 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 49 60 43 / 100 100 50 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 49 61 43 / 100 100 70 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 50 60 44 / 100 100 70 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 53 64 49 / 100 100 60 30
RUIDOSO......................... 64 49 60 44 / 100 100 40 30
CAPULIN......................... 61 51 58 43 / 90 100 90 90
RATON........................... 64 51 61 44 / 90 100 90 80
SPRINGER........................ 65 52 64 47 / 90 100 90 80
LAS VEGAS....................... 60 50 61 45 / 100 100 60 50
CLAYTON......................... 69 58 69 51 / 100 100 80 60
ROY............................. 64 55 66 49 / 90 100 60 40
CONCHAS......................... 72 60 74 54 / 100 100 30 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 58 69 52 / 100 100 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 74 60 77 54 / 100 100 20 30
CLOVIS.......................... 75 61 77 53 / 100 100 10 5
PORTALES........................ 77 63 79 53 / 90 100 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 73 61 76 53 / 100 100 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 79 61 77 53 / 90 100 5 5
PICACHO......................... 74 56 73 50 / 90 100 0 5
ELK............................. 74 52 70 47 / 100 100 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ201>241.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...77
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