946
FXUS65 KABQ 020555 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1155 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
- ARROYOS, RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH TODAY
AFTER RECENT RAINFALL. STAY AWAY FROM RIVER BANKS.
- PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES EACH MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
- GAP WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL IMPACT THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LOW LOW HAS MOVED OFF INTO
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND THE BULK OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF NEW
MEXICO. A POTENT 700MB JET STREAK IS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW AND HAS BEEN GENERATING WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THE JET STREAK
WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH
GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN (SOUTH OF I-40) OVERNIGHT, LIKELY CREATING A PERIOD
OF STRONG WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY
AROUND A 25% CHANCE OF LOCALIZED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. VERY LOW CLOUDS AND
EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTING IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, WITH DEPARTURES IN THE 5 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE ELSEWHERE. WHILE
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING, SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
IT WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT FALL WEEKEND AROUND THE REGION WITH HIGHS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND,
EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT AS NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
MODELS ARE STILL IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT ABOUT THE PASSAGE OF A
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS
A LESS AMPLIFIED FEATURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVERALL. LOW RAIN
CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST, BUT ALL ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED
DRIER, EVEN THE GEFS WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH ABOUT A DEEPER
TROUGH. RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US
MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY BE CLIMBING AS WELL, REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PRESSED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE THIS EVENING, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
NEAR 25KT TO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN NM. THESE LOW CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THOUGH CIGS MAY DIP INTO IFR
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO LOW VFR
FRIDAY AFTN/EVE BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN. LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TONIGHT,
AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NM
FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN NM.
LOCALIZED FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMONPLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
STATE, WITH THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SOUTH OF I-40
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT (<0.1").
PATCHY FOG WILL FAVOR EASTERN NM EACH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ITS DEVELOPMENT. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES ARE FORECAST IN MOST AREAS EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
BECOMING GOOD IN WESTERN AREAS NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL GRADUALLY
TREND LOWER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 74 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 37 72 38 76 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 42 67 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 43 71 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 41 67 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 43 68 41 73 / 10 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 44 68 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 46 63 44 68 / 20 5 0 0
DATIL........................... 43 62 41 68 / 20 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 46 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 50 77 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 37 68 40 73 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 67 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 41 66 41 73 / 5 0 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 37 66 40 72 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 32 59 33 66 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 62 23 69 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 33 68 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 39 62 39 71 / 10 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 43 72 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 44 67 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 43 69 43 72 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 71 48 74 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 72 50 74 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 74 44 75 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 50 72 49 75 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 51 73 49 75 / 20 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 48 73 47 75 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 48 74 46 75 / 20 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 48 73 47 75 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 50 73 48 75 / 20 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 48 71 47 74 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 49 72 48 74 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 53 71 50 74 / 20 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 66 42 70 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 45 67 44 72 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 44 65 42 71 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 66 41 73 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 43 60 42 69 / 10 5 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 44 62 41 70 / 20 5 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 61 42 69 / 20 5 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 51 63 47 70 / 30 20 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 44 54 39 63 / 60 70 40 10
CAPULIN......................... 40 61 41 73 / 20 0 0 0
RATON........................... 40 67 41 76 / 10 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 41 68 41 76 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 62 41 72 / 10 0 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 48 63 46 76 / 30 5 0 0
ROY............................. 45 64 43 72 / 20 0 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 53 67 48 77 / 20 10 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 64 48 74 / 20 10 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 53 64 49 76 / 40 40 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 52 61 50 72 / 30 30 20 10
PORTALES........................ 53 63 50 73 / 30 30 30 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 54 65 50 74 / 30 20 20 0
ROSWELL......................... 58 66 55 74 / 20 40 30 10
PICACHO......................... 51 60 50 70 / 80 90 60 10
ELK............................. 48 58 47 67 / 80 90 70 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...34
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