574
FXUS65 KABQ 041853
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1253 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
PROTECTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THERE ARE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THRU MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE H5 RIDGE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO NM. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS
ON THE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT BUT THE TREND IS
FOR MORE THE RECENT NIGHTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHES OF DRIZZLE
FROM THE SACRAMENTO MTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED MONDAY OVER EASTERN NM WITH A COUPLE RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY FORM MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BUT CHANCES ARE LOWER THAN TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE NORTHERN CA WILL DRIFT
EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY, MEANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NM
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN INTO SOUTH TX BY FRIDAY. IMPROVING LIFT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE, A 60KT SPEED MAX, AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW A COUPLE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON. RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT SO THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
OUTSIDE SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS WILL STAY WITHIN +/-5F OF
NORMAL THRU THURSDAY WITH THE WARMEST VALUES FOCUSED OVER EASTERN NM.
A POORLY DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO FORM
OVER NORTHERN NM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AHEAD
OF A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACNW. TEMPS
WILL NEAR NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO SLIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES BY SATURDAY OVER EASTERN NM. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY
BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE BROADER SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
BREEZY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
30KT COMMON FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WESTWARD. WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF THIS EVENING THEN PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A 10-20%
CHANCE OF IFR CIGS OVER SOUTHEAST NM WITH A LARGER AREA OF IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ERCS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE RECENT RECORD RAINFALL.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY
THRU THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
NM. TEMPS WILL STAY WITHIN +/-5 DEGREES OF NORMAL THRU NEXT
WEEKEND. DAILY VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR IN MOST AREAS WITH
A COUPLE POCKETS OF GOOD VALUES THRU LATE WEEK. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 77 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 42 75 40 78 / 5 5 5 10
CUBA............................ 45 71 46 75 / 5 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 45 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 43 72 44 74 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 46 72 46 76 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 43 72 43 74 / 0 0 0 10
MAGDALENA....................... 47 68 47 72 / 0 0 0 5
DATIL........................... 43 67 43 71 / 0 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 45 77 44 80 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 50 80 50 83 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 41 70 42 72 / 10 20 5 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 69 49 74 / 0 5 5 5
PECOS........................... 43 72 46 78 / 5 0 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 71 45 73 / 5 10 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 35 70 37 72 / 5 20 10 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 70 34 72 / 5 10 10 5
TAOS............................ 42 72 42 75 / 5 5 5 5
MORA............................ 41 72 46 75 / 0 5 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 47 75 47 79 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 46 70 48 74 / 5 0 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 71 46 75 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 75 54 77 / 5 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 53 76 53 77 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 77 53 80 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 75 53 79 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 52 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 51 77 51 80 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 76 51 79 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 52 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 51 74 52 76 / 5 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 76 52 80 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 53 76 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 70 49 73 / 5 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 46 73 48 77 / 5 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 45 73 46 78 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 45 73 44 78 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 69 48 76 / 5 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 45 70 47 74 / 5 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 69 47 72 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 72 52 74 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 46 67 45 71 / 20 5 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 45 71 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 44 74 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 44 75 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 70 44 76 / 5 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 51 74 53 82 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 47 70 46 79 / 0 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 53 77 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 51 74 52 80 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 53 79 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 54 76 56 81 / 5 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 54 76 57 81 / 5 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 54 75 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 58 78 56 83 / 5 20 0 0
PICACHO......................... 53 74 52 81 / 10 5 0 0
ELK............................. 51 73 48 79 / 20 10 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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