651
FXUS65 KABQ 050546 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1146 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
PROTECTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THERE ARE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THRU MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE H5 RIDGE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO NM. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS
ON THE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT BUT THE TREND IS
FOR MORE THE RECENT NIGHTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHES OF DRIZZLE
FROM THE SACRAMENTO MTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED MONDAY OVER EASTERN NM WITH A COUPLE RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY FORM MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BUT CHANCES ARE LOWER THAN TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE NORTHERN CA WILL DRIFT
EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY, MEANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NM
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN INTO SOUTH TX BY FRIDAY. IMPROVING LIFT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE, A 60KT SPEED MAX, AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW A COUPLE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON. RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT SO THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
OUTSIDE SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS WILL STAY WITHIN +/-5F OF
NORMAL THRU THURSDAY WITH THE WARMEST VALUES FOCUSED OVER EASTERN NM.
A POORLY DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO FORM
OVER NORTHERN NM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AHEAD
OF A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACNW. TEMPS
WILL NEAR NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO SLIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES BY SATURDAY OVER EASTERN NM. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY
BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE BROADER SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
LOW CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS WITH KSRR DENOTING MVFR CEILINGS AS OF 0535Z. WITH WEAK
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM KSRR TO KROW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE,
LIKELY BEGINNING TO AFFECT KROW BY 10Z. PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, MOST LIKELY BURNING AWAY BY 16Z. ELSEWHERE, PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN POCKETS ACROSS EASTERN NM AND SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,
BRINGING LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT WINDS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ERCS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE RECENT RECORD RAINFALL.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY
THRU THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
NM. TEMPS WILL STAY WITHIN +/-5 DEGREES OF NORMAL THRU NEXT
WEEKEND. DAILY VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR IN MOST AREAS WITH
A COUPLE POCKETS OF GOOD VALUES THRU LATE WEEK. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 42 76 41 77 / 10 5 5 10
CUBA............................ 45 71 47 75 / 0 5 5 20
GALLUP.......................... 45 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 43 72 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 45 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 43 72 43 74 / 0 0 0 10
MAGDALENA....................... 47 69 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 42 68 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 44 75 44 78 / 0 0 0 20
GLENWOOD........................ 49 78 50 81 / 0 0 0 20
CHAMA........................... 41 70 42 71 / 20 30 10 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 71 50 74 / 5 5 5 10
PECOS........................... 43 70 46 77 / 0 10 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 71 43 73 / 0 20 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 35 67 36 68 / 5 30 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 27 70 26 71 / 5 20 10 10
TAOS............................ 42 72 43 75 / 0 10 5 5
MORA............................ 41 71 45 74 / 0 20 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 47 75 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 48 70 50 75 / 0 5 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 72 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 74 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 75 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 49 76 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 76 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 53 76 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 50 76 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 51 76 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 51 76 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 76 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 50 74 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 75 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 53 76 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 70 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 48 72 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 46 71 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 45 72 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 69 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 45 70 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 70 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 72 52 74 / 0 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 43 66 43 71 / 20 10 5 10
CAPULIN......................... 45 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 45 75 45 81 / 0 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 44 77 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 70 45 77 / 0 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 51 75 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 47 71 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 53 77 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 51 75 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 53 78 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 54 75 55 81 / 0 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 54 76 56 82 / 5 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 54 75 56 82 / 0 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 58 77 57 82 / 20 20 0 0
PICACHO......................... 53 73 52 79 / 20 20 0 0
ELK............................. 51 69 49 75 / 30 20 5 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...77
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