281
FXUS65 KABQ 052318 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
518 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE GUSTY, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.
- PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A MODEST
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE HAS POOLED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND COULD
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STAGNANT FLOW UNDERNEATH THE HIGH WILL
KEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SAME AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
TRENDING UP EVER SO SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SEASONABLE
TODAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.
TEMPS TICK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ON TUESDAY, WITH VERY PLEASANT FALL
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT VERY PATCHY FOG RETURNS AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH THE ESTANCIA BASIN FAVORED BASED ON HREF GUIDANCE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL, BUT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD INHIBIT ITS
DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
THE HIGH CIRCULATION WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, DRAWING
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NM. THIS WILL EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN NM, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN. ISOLATED, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 750
J/KG LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH WHERE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD DEVELOP.
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE
WEEK, PLACING MODEST ZONAL FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. TEMPS WILL TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT, WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE US, DRAWING A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AROUND A QUARTER OF MODELS
(MOSTLY EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) ATTEMPT TO BRING MOISTURE FROM
NOW HURRICANE RACHEL INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT THE MAJORITY
(75%) KEEP RACHEL'S CIRCULATION SOUTH AND ONLY SHEAR MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS RAIN CHANCES
FAVORING THE WESTERN THIRD OF NEW MEXICO EARLY TO MID-WEEK, WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT BRINGING HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS TO THE MOUNTAINS. MOST
LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN ARE IN THE 0.1-
0.5" RANGE, BUT THESE WILL LIKELY TREND HIGHER OR LOWER IN THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD SLOWLY WHILE PRODUCING BRIEF DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS TO
40 KT, SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING. THIS SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
WILL DWINDLE AWAY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, ONLY TO REDEVELOP AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPAND INTO NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL
AREAS ON A VERY SPARSE AND ISOLATED BASIS. THE PROSPECTS FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ARE QUITE LOW
WITH JUST A 10-20% CHANCE OF OCCURRING IN THE ESTANCIA VALLEY
(NEAR K0E0) AND OTHER SPOTTY LOCATIONS ALONG THE CANADIAN AND
PECOS RIVER VALLEYS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GENERALLY KEEP PREVAILING WINDS
LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND VENTILATION FAIR TO POOR. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NM
TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH COVERAGE EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TREND
STRONGER SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN US. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE, FAVORING THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 80 53 79 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 41 79 41 78 / 0 5 5 10
CUBA............................ 47 75 48 75 / 0 5 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 42 78 43 77 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 44 75 47 73 / 0 0 5 20
GRANTS.......................... 44 77 45 75 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 41 75 45 75 / 0 0 5 10
MAGDALENA....................... 47 73 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 43 72 46 71 / 0 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 42 81 44 81 / 0 0 5 10
GLENWOOD........................ 48 84 49 85 / 0 0 5 20
CHAMA........................... 43 73 44 71 / 10 20 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 74 52 74 / 0 5 5 0
PECOS........................... 47 77 47 77 / 0 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 74 47 73 / 5 10 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 41 66 42 65 / 10 20 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 71 32 70 / 10 20 10 10
TAOS............................ 45 76 44 75 / 0 5 0 5
MORA............................ 47 75 47 73 / 0 5 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 48 80 48 80 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 50 75 50 75 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 75 50 77 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 79 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 53 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 80 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 79 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 50 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 49 81 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 47 79 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 81 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 49 79 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 52 77 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 53 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 50 79 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 73 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 50 75 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 48 77 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 44 78 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 75 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 47 73 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 72 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 52 74 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 46 71 48 72 / 0 0 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 48 76 50 75 / 0 5 0 0
RATON........................... 47 81 49 79 / 0 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 44 82 46 80 / 0 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 46 76 48 75 / 0 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 54 82 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 46 79 48 77 / 0 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 55 83 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 80 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 56 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 57 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 80 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 56 81 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 54 79 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 50 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...52
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