708
FXUS65 KABQ 060740
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
140 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE GUSTY, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.
- PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NV. THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TOWARDS NM THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CROP OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SHOWER/STORM WILL BE
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 40-50MPH AS DCAPE VALUES WILL
RISE TO AND ABOVE 750 J/KG IN SEVERAL AREAS. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
SO THE THREAT FOR ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
HIGH 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION AREAS, WITH HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SITS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF NM ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE A WEAK 500MB
INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE STATE. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW INTERACTING WITH THE TROUGH LIKELY PRODUCES THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
WESTERN, NORTHERN, AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF 0.1". THE PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINS
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE
HEIGHTS, BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THURSDAY, BUT THE
INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST, POTENTIALLY
INTO TX. THIS SHOULD BRING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DOWN A
TOUCH, BUT REMNANT MOISTURE WITHIN THE STATE LOOKS TO KEEP ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY AROUND. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE, THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 0.1". THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS ATTENTION TURNS TO A ROBUST LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PNW ALONG WITH THE LIKELY REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE RACHEL. HOW THIS TROUGH DIGS THROUGH WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL IS THE FOCUS
POINT FOR A POTENTIAL MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER. THE CURRENT
FAVORED TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEMS BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE DOWN
TOWARDS CA AND NV, WITH RACHEL'S REMNANTS BEING ABSORBED ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS AND EJECTED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME,
PRECIPITATION IS PRIMARILY FAVORED OVER WESTERN NM THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. OROGRAPHIC FORCING IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN NM. CURRENTLY, HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY IN AZ, HOWEVER SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF EACH FEATURE CAN ALLOW FOR THE LOCATION
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO MOVE. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AS
WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF VERY LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 10-15Z.
MOST LIKELY AREAS OF FOG WILL BE IN SHELTERED, HIGH TERRAIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS, INCLUDING KAXX. HOWEVER, THERE IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY FORM ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NM AFTER 18Z. PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
STATEWIDE WITH LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER, BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
MAY BE OBSERVED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN UNDERNEATH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VENTILATION RATES REMAIN POOR TO FAIR, THOUGH WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST WINDS START TO INCREASE
STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN NM
DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 80 53 78 51 / 5 0 5 5
DULCE........................... 77 42 76 40 / 10 5 10 10
CUBA............................ 76 48 74 46 / 10 10 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 78 47 75 44 / 10 10 20 10
EL MORRO........................ 75 45 72 43 / 20 5 30 10
GRANTS.......................... 77 47 74 45 / 20 5 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 75 46 74 44 / 10 0 20 10
MAGDALENA....................... 74 50 73 49 / 5 0 5 5
DATIL........................... 72 46 71 45 / 10 0 20 5
RESERVE......................... 78 48 78 47 / 5 5 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 81 54 83 53 / 5 10 20 20
CHAMA........................... 71 42 69 40 / 20 20 30 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 75 52 72 50 / 10 10 5 5
PECOS........................... 77 46 75 45 / 10 5 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 73 43 71 41 / 10 5 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 69 36 65 35 / 20 5 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 30 69 28 / 10 5 10 10
TAOS............................ 76 43 74 41 / 10 0 10 5
MORA............................ 75 44 72 42 / 10 5 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 80 48 77 47 / 10 5 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 76 50 74 49 / 10 5 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 77 49 77 47 / 10 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 78 54 79 53 / 5 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 79 56 80 55 / 5 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 81 50 82 50 / 5 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 80 54 81 53 / 5 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 80 54 82 53 / 5 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 81 52 80 51 / 5 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 80 52 82 51 / 5 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 81 53 81 52 / 5 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 80 53 82 52 / 5 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 78 53 78 51 / 5 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 80 54 80 52 / 5 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 80 55 81 55 / 0 0 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 74 49 75 47 / 5 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 75 51 76 49 / 5 0 5 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 76 48 76 47 / 5 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 78 45 78 45 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 76 49 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 75 48 75 47 / 0 0 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 74 48 75 48 / 0 0 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 75 54 79 54 / 0 0 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 72 46 72 45 / 0 0 20 5
CAPULIN......................... 77 47 75 46 / 0 0 5 5
RATON........................... 82 47 80 46 / 5 0 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 83 46 81 45 / 5 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 78 46 75 45 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 84 55 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 81 49 79 48 / 0 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 85 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 82 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 85 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 80 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 82 56 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 55 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 82 57 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 80 55 78 54 / 0 0 5 0
ELK............................. 76 52 75 52 / 5 0 10 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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