862
FXUS65 KABQ 231957
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
157 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FRIDAY.
- RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO
TODAY. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
A SECONDARY CLOSED LOW BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR INTO
NEW MEXICO, SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
GREATEST FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD, WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.10-0.50
ARE MOST LIKELY, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER OR REPEATED STORMS. GIVEN YESTERDAY'S HEAVY RAINFALL OF
1-2 INCHES (ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 3-4 INCHES!) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, INCLUDING
MOUNT TAYLOR AND THE JEMEZ AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAIN REGIONS, ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD QUICKLY GENERATE RUNOFF AND FLASH
FLOODING. WPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE HARDER HIT AREAS, WHICH IS
SURROUNDED BY A BROADER MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) EXTENDING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUED
LAST FORECAST CYCLE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH AN ADDITIONAL WATCH NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE RUIDOSO AREA THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY. THE OVERALL RISK
IS GREATEST FOR RUIDOSO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY (MORE ON THIS BELOW)
AND STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE AT 30-40
MPH THE REST OF TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH MODEST CAPE (1000-1500 J/KG)
AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE, HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE WATCH BEGINS AT 6PM THIS
EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE
INSTABILITY MENTIONED ABOVE AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. RAP MESOANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTS
STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS INDICATIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND SPLITTING
STORMS. OCCASIONAL SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED, AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696
IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. REPEATED
OR TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING
1-INCH/HOUR, LEADING TO RENEWED FLASH FLOODING THREATS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL
AGAIN SEE SOME TODAY. RISK IS ALSO HIGHER FOR URBAN AREAS,
ARROYOS, STEEP TERRAIN, AND RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS. WPC ONCE AGAIN
HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AMONG THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY,
MAINTAINING (I'M GOING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE) A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. BY THIS TIME, DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN INFILTRATING WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE A LOT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST (STORM MOTIONS AROUND 40-50
MPH), CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT INSTANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE AT LEAST 1-3 INCHES ARE FORECAST.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WITH COOL MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTING THAT LARGE HAIL
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
BY MONDAY, WHILE THE LOW WILL STILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY SUSTAIN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER,
PWATS ARE SET TO DECREASE TO AROUND 0.60-0.90 INCHES, REDUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. DRIER CONDTIONS LOOK TAKE OVER BY TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW SETS IN. AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. HOWEVER, LONG-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW, AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINE IN FUTURE PACKAGES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS TAF CYCLE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, INCLUDING THE EASTERN PLAINS. STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE
FAST SIDE AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS AROUND 30-45 KNOTS.
SOME STORMS MAY TURN STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN IN THE CARDS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. HIGH HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEEKEND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING/DRYING WILL FOLLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THEN A RETURN TO WETTER CONDITIONS IS
FORECAST BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 45 64 43 61 / 20 80 50 20
DULCE........................... 43 61 41 57 / 70 80 90 70
CUBA............................ 45 60 42 58 / 70 80 80 20
GALLUP.......................... 41 63 36 52 / 20 30 10 5
EL MORRO........................ 41 61 36 59 / 20 40 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 41 63 33 60 / 40 70 20 5
QUEMADO......................... 44 64 36 62 / 10 20 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 48 63 42 62 / 70 60 40 10
DATIL........................... 44 59 38 60 / 30 50 20 0
RESERVE......................... 45 65 37 65 / 30 30 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 49 70 42 70 / 30 40 5 0
CHAMA........................... 42 55 39 51 / 90 90 100 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 56 43 57 / 90 100 100 50
PECOS........................... 45 59 42 60 / 100 100 100 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 58 42 55 / 90 100 90 40
RED RIVER....................... 39 49 36 47 / 80 100 100 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 52 38 51 / 90 100 100 50
TAOS............................ 43 58 39 58 / 90 100 90 40
MORA............................ 44 55 41 57 / 100 100 100 50
ESPANOLA........................ 50 64 46 65 / 90 100 90 50
SANTA FE........................ 47 59 45 61 / 90 100 90 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 48 61 45 63 / 90 100 90 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 63 47 66 / 80 90 80 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 53 65 49 67 / 80 90 80 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 66 48 68 / 80 90 80 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 65 47 67 / 80 90 80 20
BELEN........................... 52 72 49 70 / 70 80 70 10
BERNALILLO...................... 52 67 48 67 / 90 90 90 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 50 69 46 68 / 80 90 70 10
CORRALES........................ 51 67 47 67 / 80 90 80 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 50 71 46 69 / 80 80 70 10
PLACITAS........................ 51 63 47 64 / 90 90 90 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 53 68 49 66 / 80 90 80 20
SOCORRO......................... 53 71 47 70 / 80 80 60 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 62 46 60 / 90 90 80 20
TIJERAS......................... 50 63 47 62 / 90 90 80 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 48 61 46 60 / 90 100 80 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 45 62 41 62 / 90 100 80 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 59 41 58 / 90 90 90 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 64 45 62 / 90 80 80 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 63 45 61 / 90 80 80 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 52 68 50 65 / 90 80 80 30
RUIDOSO......................... 47 64 45 63 / 80 80 90 50
CAPULIN......................... 48 56 39 55 / 80 100 100 80
RATON........................... 48 56 41 57 / 80 100 100 70
SPRINGER........................ 49 60 43 62 / 80 100 100 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 55 40 55 / 100 90 100 70
CLAYTON......................... 53 64 48 59 / 70 90 90 100
ROY............................. 50 59 46 58 / 90 100 100 80
CONCHAS......................... 56 67 53 65 / 80 90 90 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 64 52 63 / 80 100 90 80
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 67 52 64 / 70 80 90 90
CLOVIS.......................... 53 65 53 61 / 40 70 80 100
PORTALES........................ 56 72 56 68 / 40 60 80 100
FORT SUMNER..................... 56 68 55 66 / 80 80 90 90
ROSWELL......................... 58 69 56 65 / 70 70 90 80
PICACHO......................... 53 67 52 67 / 90 80 90 70
ELK............................. 50 66 49 65 / 80 90 90 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ203-204-206-207-
211.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23
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