326
FXUS65 KABQ 240555 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1155 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THROUGH THE EVENING.
- RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
A SECONDARY CLOSED LOW BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR INTO
NEW MEXICO, SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
GREATEST FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD, WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.10-0.50
ARE MOST LIKELY, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER OR REPEATED STORMS. GIVEN YESTERDAY'S HEAVY RAINFALL OF
1-2 INCHES (ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 3-4 INCHES!) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, INCLUDING
MOUNT TAYLOR AND THE JEMEZ AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAIN REGIONS, ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD QUICKLY GENERATE RUNOFF AND FLASH
FLOODING. WPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE HARDER HIT AREAS, WHICH IS
SURROUNDED BY A BROADER MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) EXTENDING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUED
LAST FORECAST CYCLE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH AN ADDITIONAL WATCH NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE RUIDOSO AREA THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY. THE OVERALL RISK
IS GREATEST FOR RUIDOSO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY (MORE ON THIS BELOW)
AND STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE AT 30-40
MPH THE REST OF TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH MODEST CAPE (1000-1500 J/KG)
AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE, HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE WATCH BEGINS AT 6PM THIS
EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE
INSTABILITY MENTIONED ABOVE AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. RAP MESOANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTS
STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS INDICATIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND SPLITTING
STORMS. OCCASIONAL SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED, AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696
IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. REPEATED
OR TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING
1-INCH/HOUR, LEADING TO RENEWED FLASH FLOODING THREATS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL
AGAIN SEE SOME TODAY. RISK IS ALSO HIGHER FOR URBAN AREAS,
ARROYOS, STEEP TERRAIN, AND RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS. WPC ONCE AGAIN
HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AMONG THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY,
MAINTAINING (I'M GOING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE) A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. BY THIS TIME, DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN INFILTRATING WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE A LOT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST (STORM MOTIONS AROUND 40-50
MPH), CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT INSTANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE AT LEAST 1-3 INCHES ARE FORECAST.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WITH COOL MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTING THAT LARGE HAIL
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
BY MONDAY, WHILE THE LOW WILL STILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY SUSTAIN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER,
PWATS ARE SET TO DECREASE TO AROUND 0.60-0.90 INCHES, REDUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. DRIER CONDTIONS LOOK TAKE OVER BY TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW SETS IN. AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. HOWEVER, LONG-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW, AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINE IN FUTURE PACKAGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
AROUND THE TIME THE BROAD LINE OF STORMS EXITS EASTERN NM TO THE
EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NM AGAIN. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FARTHER WEST TO THE AZ
BORDER SATURDAY, THEN A LINE OF CLEARING WILL ADVANCE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL TURN SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A
RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. STORM WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS AROUND 30-45 KT SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. HIGH HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEEKEND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING/DRYING WILL FOLLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THEN A RETURN TO WETTER CONDITIONS IS
FORECAST BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 47 65 44 61 / 30 90 60 20
DULCE........................... 38 60 39 58 / 60 100 90 70
CUBA............................ 44 59 42 58 / 50 90 70 20
GALLUP.......................... 38 63 34 58 / 20 50 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 39 61 34 58 / 20 50 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 41 63 36 60 / 30 80 20 5
QUEMADO......................... 41 64 35 61 / 10 20 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 48 62 44 61 / 60 90 40 10
DATIL........................... 43 59 37 59 / 20 60 10 0
RESERVE......................... 42 64 36 64 / 20 40 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 47 69 40 69 / 20 50 0 0
CHAMA........................... 39 55 38 52 / 70 100 90 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 56 45 58 / 90 100 100 40
PECOS........................... 44 58 42 60 / 100 100 90 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 57 41 56 / 90 100 100 40
RED RIVER....................... 39 48 33 48 / 80 100 90 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 52 32 54 / 90 100 90 50
TAOS............................ 41 59 39 59 / 90 100 90 40
MORA............................ 42 54 39 57 / 100 100 100 60
ESPANOLA........................ 48 64 46 65 / 100 100 90 40
SANTA FE........................ 48 59 46 60 / 90 100 90 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 62 45 62 / 90 100 90 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 53 65 51 65 / 90 100 80 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 66 50 66 / 80 100 80 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 50 68 49 68 / 70 100 70 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 66 50 66 / 80 100 80 20
BELEN........................... 50 70 49 68 / 70 90 60 10
BERNALILLO...................... 51 68 49 67 / 90 100 80 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 49 69 47 68 / 70 90 70 10
CORRALES........................ 51 68 49 67 / 80 100 80 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 50 69 48 68 / 70 90 70 10
PLACITAS........................ 51 64 49 64 / 90 100 90 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 67 50 66 / 80 100 80 20
SOCORRO......................... 53 71 50 69 / 70 90 60 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 60 45 60 / 90 100 90 20
TIJERAS......................... 48 62 47 61 / 90 100 90 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 45 61 44 62 / 90 100 90 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 45 63 43 64 / 90 100 90 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 57 44 59 / 80 100 100 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 46 63 45 62 / 90 90 90 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 62 45 61 / 90 90 90 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 51 67 49 64 / 80 90 90 30
RUIDOSO......................... 47 60 46 61 / 90 80 90 50
CAPULIN......................... 46 55 38 55 / 80 100 100 70
RATON........................... 46 57 40 60 / 90 100 100 60
SPRINGER........................ 46 58 40 61 / 90 100 100 70
LAS VEGAS....................... 46 54 42 57 / 100 100 100 70
CLAYTON......................... 53 61 48 59 / 50 90 100 90
ROY............................. 49 57 46 58 / 100 100 100 70
CONCHAS......................... 54 66 52 65 / 90 100 100 80
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 63 52 63 / 80 90 100 80
TUCUMCARI....................... 55 69 54 66 / 70 90 90 90
CLOVIS.......................... 56 69 54 65 / 60 60 90 100
PORTALES........................ 56 69 55 67 / 60 70 90 90
FORT SUMNER..................... 56 67 54 66 / 80 80 100 90
ROSWELL......................... 58 70 56 68 / 70 80 100 80
PICACHO......................... 52 66 51 66 / 90 80 100 70
ELK............................. 50 66 49 65 / 90 80 100 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR NMZ203-204-210>219-221>224-227>229-232-233-237>240.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...44
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