517
FXUS65 KABQ 241752 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, WITH A LOWER RISK OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
- RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING. THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN A SERIES OF TWO
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS FORMED
OVER SOUTHERN CA. IT WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND CO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SLOW-MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL AGAIN DRAW EXTREMELY RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACTIVITY WESTWARD TO THE AZ BORDER.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CELLS OVER CENTRAL AREAS. MODELS DEPICT A LINE OF
CLEARING THAT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
WEST-CENTRAL AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY
ABOUT HOW MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS THE DRYSLOT WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE
ON SUNDAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 160-250
PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER CENTRAL, NORTHERN, AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL FARTHER
SOUTHWEST. PWATS WILL THEN TREND DOWNWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS SUNDAY, WHILE VERY HIGH VALUES PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WITH ACTUAL PWATS AROUND 0.80-1.15", STRONGER STORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT RATES NEAR AND OVER 1"/HR
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 0.50-3.0" ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST,
AND MOSTLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF,
WHICH INDICATES WHAT A FEW OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
PROBABLY END UP BEING, REACHES 4-6" ON THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND
2-3" ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, OVER NORTH CENTRAL AREAS,
AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS. THIS
UPPER-END SCENARIO ALSO INDICATES UP TO 1.5" OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE ALBUQUERQUE AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
2-3" IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR NORTH OF ALBUQUERQUE TO TAOS. WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WE WILL CONTINUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NAVAJO LAKE EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO
CAPULIN, CONCHAS, FORT SUMNER, ROSWELL, AND RUIDOSO; INCLUDING
ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY EXTEND AND
EXPAND THE WATCH OVER EASTERN AREAS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE ALSO FORECAST ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND +2 TO
+4 C. OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHEN READINGS SHOULD
VARY FROM A FEW TO AROUND 9 DEGREES BELOW 30-YEAR AVERAGES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
ON MONDAY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS, WHERE MOIST
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK TRAILING
DISTURBANCE CROSSES ALOFT. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWNWARD,
SO THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE,
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN
ACTIVE STORM TRACK NORTH OF NM DRAWS DRY WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PROGRESS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CAN MAKE ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN US. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL TRACK AND TIMING OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN,
CENTRAL, AND NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
MORNING. ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO DIMINISH IN FAR WESTERN ZONES AND
PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND AND A LOWER CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST
AREAS. STORMS WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT AROUND 30-45 KT. WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AROUND 04Z OR SO,
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE
EAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT
KROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 118 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROBABLY
GUST IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE OVER NORTHEAST AREAS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 44 60 35 / 90 40 40 10
DULCE........................... 60 42 58 35 / 90 80 60 30
CUBA............................ 60 44 59 36 / 100 80 30 10
GALLUP.......................... 64 33 60 26 / 30 5 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 62 36 58 32 / 40 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 63 35 62 27 / 80 30 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 64 37 62 34 / 20 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 63 44 62 40 / 90 50 10 0
DATIL........................... 60 39 59 34 / 60 10 0 0
RESERVE......................... 65 38 64 37 / 30 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 70 44 70 42 / 40 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 54 40 52 33 / 100 90 60 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 44 56 41 / 100 100 70 30
PECOS........................... 59 42 60 35 / 100 100 70 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 58 42 56 36 / 100 100 60 40
RED RIVER....................... 49 35 48 30 / 100 90 70 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 54 30 52 25 / 100 90 70 40
TAOS............................ 61 40 59 34 / 100 90 70 40
MORA............................ 54 41 58 34 / 100 100 70 40
ESPANOLA........................ 66 47 66 41 / 100 90 60 40
SANTA FE........................ 61 44 58 36 / 100 100 70 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 63 45 61 37 / 100 90 70 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 49 64 43 / 100 90 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 50 65 44 / 90 80 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 71 49 67 43 / 90 80 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 48 65 42 / 90 90 40 10
BELEN........................... 72 49 70 44 / 90 80 30 10
BERNALILLO...................... 69 49 67 43 / 100 90 50 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 71 46 68 41 / 100 80 30 10
CORRALES........................ 69 48 66 41 / 100 90 40 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 71 46 69 40 / 90 80 30 10
PLACITAS........................ 66 48 63 42 / 100 90 50 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 50 67 45 / 100 90 40 20
SOCORRO......................... 72 48 70 44 / 90 80 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 46 61 40 / 100 90 50 30
TIJERAS......................... 63 47 62 41 / 100 90 50 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 62 46 61 38 / 100 90 50 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 65 41 62 31 / 100 90 50 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 43 59 38 / 100 90 60 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 64 46 62 40 / 90 100 30 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 45 61 42 / 100 90 50 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 50 66 48 / 90 90 50 20
RUIDOSO......................... 64 45 64 44 / 90 90 40 20
CAPULIN......................... 55 41 57 40 / 100 100 90 70
RATON........................... 58 43 57 37 / 100 100 80 60
SPRINGER........................ 60 44 62 37 / 100 100 80 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 40 56 35 / 100 100 80 50
CLAYTON......................... 63 50 60 48 / 80 100 100 90
ROY............................. 59 48 58 45 / 100 100 90 70
CONCHAS......................... 67 53 66 50 / 100 90 90 80
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 53 64 49 / 100 100 90 70
TUCUMCARI....................... 70 55 66 52 / 90 100 90 80
CLOVIS.......................... 70 54 63 51 / 70 90 90 80
PORTALES........................ 73 55 70 53 / 60 90 90 80
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 55 67 53 / 90 100 90 90
ROSWELL......................... 75 57 67 54 / 70 100 70 70
PICACHO......................... 67 52 69 51 / 90 100 60 50
ELK............................. 66 49 67 48 / 100 100 50 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ203-204-210>219-221>224-
226>229-232-233-237>240.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...23
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