608
FXUS65 KABQ 250600 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1200 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, WITH A LOWER RISK OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES.
- RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.
- HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA BORDER WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT TIME OF WRITING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL FAVOR SOUTH, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (~1000 J/KG CAPE)
AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (40-50 KNOTS) COULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS, AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. FORECAST PWATS ARE ROUGHLY 2-5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN THESE AREAS. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS UP
TO 4-4.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL MAY EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY
WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY AFFECT THE SAME LOCATIONS OR MOVE OVER
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. EVEN BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE
DANGEROUS RUNOFF IN URBAN AREAS, ARROYOS, LOW-WATER CROSSINGS, AND
RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT, WITH OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES AND THE UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY
NOW INCLUDED IN THE WATCH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL WATCH COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY
BY THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
SPEAKING OF SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHEASTWARD
TREK INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO, SHIFTING THE MOISTURE
AXIS AND PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TOWARD
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHILE DRIER AIR STARTS TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN
AND WEST-CENTRAL AREAS. THE GREATEST FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
LIKELY EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE REMAINDER OF TODAY COULD
INCREASE VULNERABILITY TO ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WHILE
OVERALL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST DIMINISHES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES, SPECIFICALLY MAXTS, WILL GENERALLY BE
TRENDING BELOW AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY
DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A PASSING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER PWATS
WILL BE GRADUALLY DECLINING, REDUCING THE OVERALL FLASH FLOODING
THREAT. DRIER AIR, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM WEAK RIDGING, AND
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTING WARMER AND
DRIER TRENDS BY MIDWEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MORE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO PROMOTE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LONG
TERM MODELS SUGGEST MODEST SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY DOESN'T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF
TIME UNTIL WE REACH THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, SO EXPECT GREATER
DETAILS AND FORECAST REFINEMENT IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CELLS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF
NORTHWEST NM UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS AROUND 30-45 KT. A FEW STORMS
WILL PROBABLY TURN SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG, AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
UNTIL MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGH HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING/DRYING WILL
FOLLOW EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RETURN TO WETTER CONDITIONS IS FORECAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 43 60 39 61 / 40 30 5 0
DULCE........................... 36 59 30 59 / 100 60 60 0
CUBA............................ 42 58 35 59 / 80 60 40 0
GALLUP.......................... 34 59 28 63 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 34 59 30 62 / 5 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 36 61 29 63 / 20 30 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 34 62 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 44 61 40 62 / 40 20 5 0
DATIL........................... 38 58 34 62 / 10 10 0 0
RESERVE......................... 35 64 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 40 69 39 73 / 0 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 37 53 30 53 / 100 70 60 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 57 39 58 / 90 90 60 0
PECOS........................... 42 59 35 61 / 100 90 80 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 41 57 36 57 / 90 80 80 0
RED RIVER....................... 32 48 28 49 / 90 90 80 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 33 53 25 55 / 100 90 70 0
TAOS............................ 38 59 34 59 / 90 80 80 0
MORA............................ 39 56 31 61 / 100 90 60 0
ESPANOLA........................ 45 65 39 65 / 90 90 70 0
SANTA FE........................ 46 59 40 60 / 90 90 80 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 62 39 62 / 90 90 70 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 64 45 65 / 80 70 50 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 65 44 66 / 70 70 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 49 66 43 67 / 70 60 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 64 45 65 / 80 70 40 0
BELEN........................... 49 67 43 67 / 60 40 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 49 66 44 66 / 80 80 50 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 47 67 42 67 / 60 60 30 0
CORRALES........................ 50 65 44 66 / 80 80 50 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 49 66 44 67 / 60 60 30 0
PLACITAS........................ 49 62 44 64 / 80 80 60 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 64 45 65 / 80 80 50 0
SOCORRO......................... 51 69 46 69 / 50 30 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 59 39 60 / 80 70 60 0
TIJERAS......................... 47 60 42 62 / 80 70 60 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 44 61 36 62 / 90 70 50 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 63 35 64 / 100 70 40 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 58 40 60 / 100 80 40 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 44 61 39 63 / 90 50 30 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 60 41 63 / 90 60 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 64 48 66 / 100 60 30 10
RUIDOSO......................... 46 61 45 63 / 100 60 30 30
CAPULIN......................... 38 55 38 59 / 100 100 80 0
RATON........................... 40 59 38 64 / 100 90 70 0
SPRINGER........................ 40 60 36 66 / 100 90 60 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 56 36 61 / 100 90 60 0
CLAYTON......................... 49 57 47 65 / 100 90 100 10
ROY............................. 47 57 42 62 / 100 100 90 5
CONCHAS......................... 51 64 49 69 / 100 100 90 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 51 62 49 67 / 100 90 80 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 65 51 69 / 90 90 80 30
CLOVIS.......................... 56 65 53 66 / 90 90 80 50
PORTALES........................ 55 66 52 68 / 90 80 70 50
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 65 52 67 / 100 90 100 30
ROSWELL......................... 57 67 56 68 / 100 60 80 40
PICACHO......................... 51 67 49 66 / 100 60 60 50
ELK............................. 49 66 47 66 / 100 50 60 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...44
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