015
FXUS65 KABQ 260602 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1202 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN TURN SEVERE OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, WITH A LOWER RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
- RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO.
- MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RETURN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO, AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, DUE TO
SATURATED SOIL THERE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A DOUBLE-LOBED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS UPSTREAM OF NM WITH ONE
VORTICITY LOBE OVER UT AND THE SOUTHERN ONE IN AZ. THE LATTER WILL
FILL IN SOME AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON, HELPING TO SPAWN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. PWATS HAVE
REDUCED TO 0.3 TO 0.5 INCH OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NM, AND STORMS
WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE HARDER, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE, TO COME BY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM
STILL HOSTS 30-50 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, PLENTY FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE CELLS. INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WITH 1000-1750 J/KG OF MUCAPE
MODELED, BUT SOME CAPPING AND LOW LAYER INHIBITION COULD KEEP THIS
FROM FULLY BEING EXPLOITED. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL
NM ARE STILL SOGGY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS' RAINFALL, SO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE RETAINED THERE, AS JUST ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.0
INCH COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS IN A FEW LOCALES. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WAS ALSO EXPANDED TO PORTIONS OF THE PECOS VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER (50-60% CHANCE OF FLOODING) IN THIS EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE
WATCH, BUT THIS AREA DID RECEIVE 1.0-2.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT,
SATURATING THE SOILS. STORMS WILL TRANSITION TOWARD THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS DEPICTED BY THE REFS IN NORTHEASTERN NM
WHERE SOME 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE DEPICTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THESE NORTHEASTERN ZONES HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN
YET, SO THEY WERE LEFT OUT OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WHERE MORE
CLEARING WILL OCCUR, AND ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG WILL
DEVELOP IN LOW VALLEYS AND OVER AREAS OF STANDING WATER.
THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, LEAVING BEHIND MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLIES
ALOFT. WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF NM WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT,
BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE THE
PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM. THIS WILL KEEP PWATS
HIGHER OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (0.8 TO 1.0 INCH) WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF A
CARRIZOZO TO SANTA ROSA TO CLAYTON LINE ON MONDAY. WITH LESS
MOMENTUM ALOFT, THE BULK SHEAR WILL LOWER ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY
STORMS FROM TURNING SEVERE, AND STORM MOTIONS WILL TURN MUCH
SLOWER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GAIN A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES,
RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A FEW STRAGGLING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
SLOW CESSATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRY
TO HANG ON IN SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WITH DEWPOINTS MODELED TO STAY
IN THE 40'S AND 50'S THERE, BUT ELSEWHERE READINGS WILL REDUCE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY, INCHING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY.
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW LAYER
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW TO ADVECT MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED OR WORK IN TANDEM WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF CHIHUAHUA, POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY. A GRADUAL AND SUBTLE INCREASE IN
PWATS (ONLY 0.5 TO 0.8 INCH) WILL LEAD TO BROADENING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING UNDER MORE
SUBSIDENT FLOW ON SATURDAY. ALL EYES WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE
NEXT UPSTREAM PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW THAT WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SUNDAY. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MAIN LOW AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS, AND IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT A STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS INDICATED,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO AN INGEST OF MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MORE TRANSIENT WITH THE UPPER LOW
STAYING IN QUICK PROPAGATION DUE TO THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET
TETHERING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN LINGER OVER FAR EAST
CENTRAL AREAS UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST PLAINS, AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY, EXCEPT INTO THE AFTERNOON IN
SOME EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS. ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT MANY LOCATIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY, INCLUDING
KGUP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
ONGOING RAIN AND STORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT, KEEPING FUELS AND SOIL MOISTURE
HIGH. RAIN AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY DYING OUT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH DRIER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY,
THE RECENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT
BAY. STORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY,
EXPANDING SOME ON FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TEND
TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH WITH
SPOTTY AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25 INCH). MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
INCREASING WINDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 40 61 38 64 / 30 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 31 57 27 61 / 90 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 34 58 36 61 / 50 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 30 63 31 66 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 30 62 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 32 63 33 67 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 32 65 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 40 62 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 34 61 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 33 68 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 39 73 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 30 53 28 54 / 90 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 39 58 39 62 / 90 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 34 61 34 62 / 70 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 56 35 58 / 90 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 27 49 26 50 / 90 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 28 55 19 55 / 80 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 31 59 27 61 / 90 0 0 0
MORA............................ 30 60 29 63 / 80 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 38 64 37 66 / 90 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 39 60 39 62 / 70 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 38 62 37 65 / 70 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 45 66 45 67 / 50 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 44 67 46 69 / 40 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 43 68 43 70 / 40 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 45 65 45 68 / 50 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 43 67 44 70 / 20 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 43 66 43 69 / 60 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 41 67 42 70 / 30 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 43 66 43 68 / 50 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 67 44 70 / 30 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 43 64 43 67 / 60 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 44 65 44 67 / 50 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 46 69 49 72 / 5 0 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 39 60 40 63 / 60 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 41 62 42 64 / 50 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 36 62 35 64 / 50 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 37 63 33 66 / 50 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 60 40 62 / 70 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 38 63 40 64 / 30 0 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 40 63 41 63 / 40 0 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 66 47 66 / 40 20 20 5
RUIDOSO......................... 43 61 42 62 / 30 30 10 5
CAPULIN......................... 38 59 38 64 / 90 0 5 5
RATON........................... 37 63 34 68 / 90 0 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 35 65 32 71 / 80 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 39 61 34 65 / 90 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 48 66 46 69 / 100 10 10 5
ROY............................. 42 62 40 68 / 90 0 10 5
CONCHAS......................... 48 69 48 74 / 90 10 10 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 48 66 47 72 / 90 5 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 52 69 49 74 / 90 30 20 5
CLOVIS.......................... 54 66 52 71 / 80 50 60 10
PORTALES........................ 53 67 52 72 / 70 40 60 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 51 66 51 71 / 90 40 40 10
ROSWELL......................... 54 65 52 70 / 80 30 40 10
PICACHO......................... 49 65 46 71 / 60 40 20 10
ELK............................. 47 65 44 69 / 70 40 20 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR NMZ229-232-233-236>238.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44
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