612
FXUS63 KABR 190528 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1128 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM THE JAMES RIVER EAST BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- COLDER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
- STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, PEAKING BETWEEN 35 AND 55 THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (1" OR LESS) CAN BE EXPECTED NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM MOBRIDGE TO MILLER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, BUT THE
BULK OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE SISSETON HILLS AND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE COTEAU (25 TO 45% CHANCE OF 4+ INCHES)
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
WESTERN BUFFALO COUNTY TO MCPHERSON COUNTY, WITH THE RAIN TRACKING
NORTHWARD. CAMS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN WILL COME TO AN END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
RAIN IS PUSHING NORTH AND WEST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
IT'S LOOKING MORE LIKE AREAS WEST RIVER, ESPECIALLY FROM PIERRE
SOUTH, WILL STAY MOSTLY DRY. ON THE OTHER HAND, AREAS FROM THE JAMES
VALLEY EAST ARE FORECAST TO SEE HALF AN INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTH INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH A 16 MB SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. COUPLED
WITH SOME STRONG CAA, NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 9Z
ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH SPREADING EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION MAY BRIEFLY
TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN.
ANY PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WE WILL HAVE AN UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING DOWN THE BACKSIDE, INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR HAS MOVED IN AND
LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW SHALLOW INSTABILITY. NAM SNOWSQUALL
PARAMETER HIGHLIGHTS THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE INITIALLY AND THEN
PIVOTS INTO MINNESOTA, WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS DO SO FOR A
SIMILAR LOCATION, ALBEIT A FEW HOURS BEFOREHAND. NAM BUFKIT ALSO
INDICATES THAT BESIDES THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, ASCENT (ABOUT 5
MICROBARS) WILL EXISTS IN A MID LEVEL DECK THAT WILL ALSO EXIST
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS, ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE ACROSS
THE COTEAU WILL BE OUR FOCUS AREA FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL
PROBABILITIES FOR 4" HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 30% (DOWN FROM THE 07Z
4" PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 50%). BLOWING SNOW TOOL CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL, HOWEVER THIS IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE SISSETON
HILLS AS THAT IS PRIMARILY WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER
WITH NO EXISTING SNOWPACK SUSPECT BLOWING SNOW WILL STRICTLY BE A
FUNCTION OF FALLING SNOW AND WIND. AS FOR WIND SPEEDS, WE WILL
INITIALLY HAVE ABOUT AN 18MB GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE STATE, WITH PERSISTENT SUBTLE PRESSURE RISES (3MB/6
HOURS). PEAK MIXED WINDS IN NAM BUFKIT ARE AROUND UPPER 30KT TO THE
MID 40KT RANGE, CAPTURED WELL BY THE NBM.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN BEHIND ON FRIDAY, THOUGH WITH
GRADIENT WINDS LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR EAST/WESTERN MN INTO
THURSDAY. FLOW SHIFTS TO EASTERLY OFF THAT HIGH FOR SATURDAY, SO
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ANTICIPATED. THEN WE START
SEEING UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY OR MUCH WARMUP
PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD AIRMASS WHICH WE ARE PICKING UP IN THE LAST
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IN THE GEFS WITH THE NBM SHOWING A LOT OF RANGE
PAST MONDAY, BUT WITH EVEN COLDER MEAN/25TH PERCENTILES FOR
HIGHS/LOWS INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. FOR THE MOST PART, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FROM MID MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
THOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. BY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD, THERE MAY SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
THE AREA, WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY WITH ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-
033>037-045-048-051.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN
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