569
FXUS63 KABR 191852 AAD
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1252 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING WIND GUSTS OVER 58 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADVISORY STRENGTH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER AND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS.
- SNOW WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS 75% OR
BETTER FROM NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY THROUGH DAY AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES.
- STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
ALSO, UPGRADING CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WIND
ADVISORY COUNTIES TO HIGH WIND WARNING COUNTIES. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SPILLS/SHIFTS SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA OVER INTO THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
NO NOTABLE CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME FOR THE TODAY PERIOD
FORECAST. STILL EYEING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND WARNING
CONDITIONS (SUSTAINED 40MPH/GUSTS 58+MPH) TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY IN THE CWA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 531 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING,
BRINGING RAIN TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. 1-2" OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN TOTAL FROM THIS SYSTEM BY THE AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF IT WILL HAVE FALLEN BY THE TIME OF ISSUANCE
OF THIS DISCUSSION. HI-RES MODELS SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE
RAIN WILL BE CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK,
AROUND 8-9AM. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
LINGER OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU, BUT NOTHING NOTABLE IS EXPECTED OUT
OF THOSE SHOWERS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BRING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK
STARTING AT 3AM THIS MORNING AND FOR COUNTIES BROWN/SPINK AND EAST
STARTING AT 12PM TODAY. GUSTS OF 45-55 MILES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE ADVISORY FOR BOTH SETS OF COUNTIES IS
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF AT 6PM. ALREADY, GUSTS OF 55 MILES PER HOUR
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, SO A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SHOULD GUSTS KEEP FLIRTING WITH
WARNING CRITERIA. ADDITIONALLY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
40% OR LESS AND THE ELEVATED WIND THREAT WILL CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COOL THE MID-
LEVELS AND PUSH THE SATURATED LAYER INTO THE DGZ TEMPERATURE RANGE.
WRAP-AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST FORECASTED TOTALS ARE OVER THE PRAIRIE
COTEAU, WHERE THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF RECEIVING 4 INCHES OF SNOW
OR MORE. SNOW AND HIGH WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR GOOD CHANCES TO SEE
BLOWING SNOW. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY
OCCUR AS A RESULT. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ANY SNOW. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO STEADILY DECREASE 850MB TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME AND BEYOND. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -10 RANGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY TO
BELOW NORMAL, STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
BY 00Z THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHERN MN AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND. 850MB TEMPERATURES TO START
THE PERIOD WILL BE SLOWLY MODERATING THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT WILL
STILL BE NEAR -10C OVER NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE LIGHT
SNOW WILL LINGER FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO BELOW WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ANY
SMALL SCALE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED AS THE
TIME NEARS AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU/SISSETON HILLS AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CANADA THROUGH EASTERN MT AND NORTHEASTERN WY
AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TO CENTRAL SD BY 18Z THURSDAY
WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN SD TO THE SD/MN BORDER BY 00Z
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME WE'LL HAVE THE 500MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST
MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO AROUND 40
DEGREES SOUTH OF PIR. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES IN TEMPERATURES AS WE
MOVE TO SATURDAY WITH THE SPREAD IN THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES ON
TEMPERATURES BEING NEARLY 10 DEGREES.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS A PORTION OF LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SHIFTS TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH IT'S LESS THAN 20%, THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT ON THE BREAKDOWN OF THE 500MB RIDGE, BUT LACK
CONSISTENCY ON ANY SPECIFIC SMALLER SCALE WAVE. THIS MAKES THE LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK REASONABLE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AT THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, WITH ONLY
A FEW DEGREE FLUCTUATION IN HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
FLT CAT RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR (STRATUS) EXISTS OVER THE CWA.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SOME BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z. HOWEVER,
AFTER 00Z, THE ONLY TERMINAL FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR INTO WEDNESDAY
IS KPIR. KABR/KATY AND KMBG ARE ALL FORECAST TO DROP BACK DOWN
INTO MVFR CONDITIONS, AND KABR/KATY PROBABLY SEE SOME SNOW BEFORE
12Z WEDNESDAY. COMBINE THE SNOW WITH THE STRONG WINDS OCCURRING AT
ALL FOUR TERMINALS, AND KABR/KATY COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND/OR BLOWING SNOW.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ006>008-011-
018>023.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...DORN
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