883
FXUS63 KABR 200916
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING WIND GUSTS OVER 58 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH TODAY. ADVISORY
STRENGTH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER AND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ADDITIONAL
SNOW STILL TO FALL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IS AROUND AN INCH. NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY THROUGH DAY
AND MARSHALL COUNTIES MAY SEE AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. THE SISSETON AREA HAS ALSO SEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW
TOTALS WITH THIS LATEST FORECAST.
- STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A RESULT.
- STRONG WINDS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. RADAR INDICATES A BAND OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOW RUNNING
NORTH TO SOUTH LOCATED OVER EASTERN BROWN/WESTERN MARSHALL AND DAY
COUNTIES AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU. HERE, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE BAND AND
ALLOW FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS TO FALL. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH HAS
FALLEN AT THIS POINT, BUT STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR THE COTEAU COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 6 TO 8 INCHES. HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A CLEAR
END TIME, AS SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER THE AREA WILL BE
CLEAR OF FALLING SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
MARSHALL, ROBERTS, DAY, AND CLARK COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, AS WELL AS FOR TRAVERSE COUNTY IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE
ADVISORY WILL RUN THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
A HIGH WIND WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
(COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK) THROUGH 6PM TODAY. GUSTS OF 50 TO 65
MILES PER HOUR OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE LOW. NBM PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS TO HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA REMAIN ABOVE 50% OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND DROP OFF SHORTLY AFTER, SO NO
ADJUSTMENT TO THE END TIME IS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. THE DROPOFF
WILL TAKE PLACE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD.
THE STRONG WINDS AND FALLING SNOW TODAY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
BLOWING SNOW, WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN BEING OVER THE COTEAU.
PROBABILITIES THERE FOR BLOWING SNOW ARE AROUND 50% THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS UP ABOVE 80% NEAR SUNRISE TODAY. VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA AS A RESULT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, BUT GIVEN THAT THE EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS
OVER THAT AREA ARE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS, THERE IS NOT AS MUCH
CONCERN FOR THAT AREA.
THERE IS ALSO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS NOT FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30-40% RANGE ARE THE CONDITIONS CAUSING THE ELEVATED CONCERN.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY (ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE). 850 TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SLIGHTLY THURSDAY FROM BELOW -10 INTO THE -5 TO -7 DEGREE
RANGE. HIGHER SKY COVER OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING,
WHEREAS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MAY SEE SOME MORE INSOLATION AND
PUSH UP INTO THE MID 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
LIGHTER WINDS WILL ACROSS THE REGION AT 00Z FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS SET UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH CENTRAL ND OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND DOWN THROUGH OK. THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG
THE SD/MN BORDER AT 18Z FRIDAY AND REMAIN OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
SD/WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH WESTERN MN BEFORE EXITING EAST LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM OUR SOUTHWEST
AND SKIRTS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD THROUGH 00-18Z SUNDAY.
THE 500MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BE OVERHEAD AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AS ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A PORTION OF THE 500MB
LOW OFF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EJECTING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT TO ALONG THE ND/CANADA BORDER
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30
DEGREES OVER WEST CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN STRETCHES OF THE PRAIRIE
COTEAU TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE.
WHILE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN, JUST HOW MUCH COLDER IS THE QUESTION.
THE GEFS IS AVERAGING 4-10F LOWER THAN THE EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A
BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. OVERALL THIS
DIFFERENCE STEMS FORM THE 500MB PATTERN WITH THE EC LOCKING THE
COLDER AIR TO OUR NORTH, WITH AT LEAST 50% OF THE GEFS ALLOWING
ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO PUSH IN.
PRECIPITATION WISE, THERE IS ONLY A 20 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF
SNOW NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
20 PERCENT CHANCE WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS IT
WILL BE BASED ON THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE 500MB WAVE WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AND DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFICS AS THE 500MB PATTERN BECOMES LESS CONSISTENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA,
MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME DIMINISHMENT WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE COMING TO AN END EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SISSETON HILLS REGION OF FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ007-
008-011-019.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ006>008-011-
018>023.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ039.
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...PARKIN
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