669
FXUS63 KABR 202014
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
214 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WIND GUSTS FROM THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY
SHOULD BE DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPIRATION
REMAINS 6 PM CST FOR NOW.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NORTHERN CLARK
COUNTY THROUGH DAY, MARSHALL, ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES MAY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
- THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
UNTIL FALLING SNOW COMES TO AN END AND THE STRONG WINDS DIMINISH.
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SET IN AFTER SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
AT 1 PM CST, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST EXCEPT DOWN OVER
STANLEY, JONES, LYMAN COUNTIES WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. STRONG
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE CWA, INCLUDING GUSTS TO 58 MPH OR
HIGHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, AND GUSTS TO
45 MPH FURTHER EAST IN THE CWA. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S, WHILE THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES
WHERE IT'S SUNNY ARE EXPERIENCING READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. PERIODIC BURSTS OF SNOWFALL OVER/NEAR THE COTEAU HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS
ONGOING, THESE PERIODS OF SNOWFALL HAVE BEEN ADDING AN ADDITIONAL
LAYER OF VISIBILITY REDUCTION FROM BLOWING SNOW AND FALLING SNOW.
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP
ON/NEAR THE COTEAU WITH THIS SNOW/WIND EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 1 TO 7 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE
LAST OF THE TROWAL-FORCED/COTEAU-UPSLOPE-ENHANCED PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY ~06Z. SO, CONTINUING WITH AN
EXPIRATION TIME OF MIDNIGHT CST FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH, SOME SURFACE-LEVEL DRIFTING SNOW WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD BE TRENDING
DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO, WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINE
COVERAGE AND TIMING FOR BOTH HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY FOR
NOW (EXPIRES AT 6 PM CST). WHERE THE WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, GUIDANCE/GRADIENT WINDS SUGGEST
WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT LONGER OVER THAT AREA. EVENING SHIFT MAY
WANT TO CONSIDER AN EXTENSION IN TIME FOR THE WIND ADVISED AREAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTLING WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.
WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN PLACE, THUS FAR, THIS WINTER
SEASON, WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. GUIDANCE HAS THE CLOUDS CLEARING OFF
ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, SO
BY THURSDAY NIGHT PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG RADIATIONAL-
COOLING NIGHT (LOWS AT LEAST DOWN INTO THE TEENS). AND, WHEREVER
THERE IS A NEW SNOWFIELD FROM THIS CURRENT SNOW EVENT, GO AHEAD
AND GET YOUR PENCIL TOOL OUT AND SCRIBBLE IN LOW TEMPERATURES, AT
LEAST, 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE SNOW FIELD THURSDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO SURROUNDING AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE
PERIOD, THOUGH AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL COMPRESS THIS
AND ENHANCE WINDS ALOFT. THIS HELPS TO SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
INTO THE DAKOTAS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE
OF COLD ADVECTION THE AREA RELIEVES, AS THE GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON
COLD ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY, WHILE THE EC/CANADIAN/NAM WASH THIS
FEATURE OUT ALONG THE ND/SD STATE LINE. THIS IS ALSO WHEN GEFS
850MB TRACES PEAK AND THEN DROP OFF... A TREND THAT THE GEFS PLUMES
INDICATE WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL THE NBM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLING TREND, BUT STILL
REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM WHAT WE GOT IN THE FIRST
HALF OF NOVEMBER.
A SHORTWAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE REPRESENTED BY LOW CHANCE POPS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. THIS CLIPPER WILL ALSO
BRING WINDS UP THOUGH AT THIS TIMESCALE CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT AND DEGREE OF COLD ADVECTION MEANS THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH OF WINDS. REGARDLESS, THERE
IS GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GUIDANCE IN AT LEAST REPRESENTING
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN 25 TO 35 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 TO 55 KNOTS WILL PERSIST AT KPIR/KMBG AND KABR THROUGH
00Z. AT KATY, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
FALLING SNOW WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW AND VISBY
REDUCTIONS TO BETWEEN ONE-HALF MILE AND ONE MILE THROUGH 00Z.
AFTER 00Z, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ENSUE AT KPIR/KMBG AND KABR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WHILE FALLING SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL END AT KATY LATER TONIGHT BY ~06Z, EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO PERSIST AT KATY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ007-
008-011-019.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ006>008-011-
018>023.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ039.
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...DORN
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