843
FXUS63 KABR 210206 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
806 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SET IN AFTER SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 804 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
PER WEBCAM IMAGES AND REPORTS, CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION, AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE, HAVE CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
HAVE ALLOWED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES TO
EXPIRE AS WIND SPEEDS WILL NOW DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
AT 1 PM CST, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST EXCEPT DOWN OVER
STANLEY, JONES, LYMAN COUNTIES WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. STRONG
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE CWA, INCLUDING GUSTS TO 58 MPH OR
HIGHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, AND GUSTS TO
45 MPH FURTHER EAST IN THE CWA. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S, WHILE THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES
WHERE IT'S SUNNY ARE EXPERIENCING READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. PERIODIC BURSTS OF SNOWFALL OVER/NEAR THE COTEAU HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS
ONGOING, THESE PERIODS OF SNOWFALL HAVE BEEN ADDING AN ADDITIONAL
LAYER OF VISIBILITY REDUCTION FROM BLOWING SNOW AND FALLING SNOW.
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP
ON/NEAR THE COTEAU WITH THIS SNOW/WIND EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 1 TO 7 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE
LAST OF THE TROWAL-FORCED/COTEAU-UPSLOPE-ENHANCED PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY ~06Z. SO, CONTINUING WITH AN
EXPIRATION TIME OF MIDNIGHT CST FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH, SOME SURFACE-LEVEL DRIFTING SNOW WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD BE TRENDING
DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO, WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINE
COVERAGE AND TIMING FOR BOTH HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY FOR
NOW (EXPIRES AT 6 PM CST). WHERE THE WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, GUIDANCE/GRADIENT WINDS SUGGEST
WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT LONGER OVER THAT AREA. EVENING SHIFT MAY
WANT TO CONSIDER AN EXTENSION IN TIME FOR THE WIND ADVISED AREAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTLING WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.
WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN PLACE, THUS FAR, THIS WINTER
SEASON, WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. GUIDANCE HAS THE CLOUDS CLEARING OFF
ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, SO
BY THURSDAY NIGHT PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG RADIATIONAL-
COOLING NIGHT (LOWS AT LEAST DOWN INTO THE TEENS). AND, WHEREVER
THERE IS A NEW SNOWFIELD FROM THIS CURRENT SNOW EVENT, GO AHEAD
AND GET YOUR PENCIL TOOL OUT AND SCRIBBLE IN LOW TEMPERATURES, AT
LEAST, 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE SNOW FIELD THURSDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO SURROUNDING AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE
PERIOD, THOUGH AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL COMPRESS THIS
AND ENHANCE WINDS ALOFT. THIS HELPS TO SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
INTO THE DAKOTAS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE
OF COLD ADVECTION THE AREA RELIEVES, AS THE GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON
COLD ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY, WHILE THE EC/CANADIAN/NAM WASH THIS
FEATURE OUT ALONG THE ND/SD STATE LINE. THIS IS ALSO WHEN GEFS
850MB TRACES PEAK AND THEN DROP OFF... A TREND THAT THE GEFS PLUMES
INDICATE WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL THE NBM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLING TREND, BUT STILL
REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM WHAT WE GOT IN THE FIRST
HALF OF NOVEMBER.
A SHORTWAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE REPRESENTED BY LOW CHANCE POPS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. THIS CLIPPER WILL ALSO
BRING WINDS UP THOUGH AT THIS TIMESCALE CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT AND DEGREE OF COLD ADVECTION MEANS THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH OF WINDS. REGARDLESS, THERE
IS GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GUIDANCE IN AT LEAST REPRESENTING
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIME DUE TO LIGHT
FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME ALONG
AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE CIGS SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING
TO VFR LEVELS ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT, AND ALONG
AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF
35 KNOT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY, THOUGH THE FAR EASTERN PART OF
THE REGION MAY STILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS INTO THE DAY
THURSDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN
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