757
FXUS63 KABR 231740 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1140 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 15 TO 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY, WITH AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS COMBINED WITH A THICK SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING AS HIGH TEMPS
RISE INTO THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS GENERATING SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS
TO EXIT BEFORE SUNRISE BUT DID ADD A MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA TODAY. AREAS
FARTHER SOUTHWEST WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT
FROM A LOW OVER CO/WY. AT THE SFC THAT AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS, THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY SUBDUE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. NBM HAS A LARGE POTENTIAL TEMP SPREAD THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON SUNDAY.
THE LOW MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER LOW BARRELS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
BEHIND THE SFC LOW, STRONG CAA WILL MOVE IN ON AN ARCTIC FRONT. H85
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
INCREASE, ACCORDINGLY, BUT WITHOUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE
SFC AND ONLY 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT THE MID LEVELS EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 35 MPH RANGE, SUB-ADVISORY. THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AT THE
EDGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SD ON SUNDAY, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON TIMING, ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
SUNDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST AND BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY, THE EC IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE THURSDAY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY MORNING
AND INTO MN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN SD SUNDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE TO
NONE. OTHER THAN THIS, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY
WARMS UP A LITTLE AS WE GET SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THEN THURSDAY ONCE AGAIN WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND
FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AS SOME MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON AND EAST OF THE
COTEAU MONDAY, WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE ORDINARY
DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
POTENTIAL OF AREAL COVERAGE EXPANSION TODAY/TONIGHT. THEREFORE,
CLOUD TRENDS AT THE TAF SITES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
WELL, IN REGARDS TO ARRIVAL IN KABR/KATY, AND ANY POTENTIAL
BREAKS IN THE ONGOING MVFR CIGS AT KPIR/KMBG. OTHERWISE, POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR FG/FZFG/BR OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT KATY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...TMT
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