490
FXUS63 KABR 240831
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
231 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS OF
UP TO AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ALONG I-90 IN LYMAN COUNTY AND EAST OF
THE JAMES VALLEY.
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY THE END
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2024
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THIS LOW INTO EASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
BEHIND THIS TROUGH, COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL SD ON THE EDGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT AHEAD OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT, THERE'S AN ENHANCED
FRONTOGENETIC BAND, AS IS TYPICAL WITH ARCTIC FRONTS, THAT SETS UP
TOWARD EVENING. HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL NOW PICKING UP ON
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. HREF PROBS AND WPC QPF
REFLECT THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF SNOW ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS. NBM 25-75TH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THAT
THINKING. INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THAT 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES SHOW
MOST AREAS OF THE CWA GETTING AT LEAST A COUPLE TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION IN PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 21Z. FOR NOW,
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS ARE RESTRICTED TO LYMAN AND BUFFALO
COUNTIES ALONG I-90 AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. THERE COULD BE
SOME REDUCED VSBY AS THE SNOW IS FALLING WITH WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25
MPH.
CAA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC FRONT WILL SEE TEMPS FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS TONIGHT. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT, THEY
COULD DROP FURTHER; THIS IS MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL SD WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -8 TO -10C. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED, THOUGH CLOUDS COULD LINGER OVER THE EAST
THROUGH MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2024
MONDAY EVENING, THE AREA IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS
BOTH SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EC ALSO HAS THIS SHORTWAVE BUT
MOVES IT ACROSS LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THIS, WE HAVE
THE THURSDAY SYSTEM WHICH, CLUSTERS SEEM TO INDICATE, HAS BECOME
MORE OF A TROUGH THAN A FULL ON LOW. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WE STAY IN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT
(LESS THAN 25%) POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES (WARMEST WEST RIVER). WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE GOING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS. THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO BE CONFINED
TO ONLY KATY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT
KABR/KPIR/KMBG AROUND 12Z AND CLOSER TO 18Z AT KATY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KPIR/KMBG ON SUNDAY EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...VIPOND
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